Category Archives: World affairs

regional economy a major casualty of Kenya’s unrest

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As parts of Kenya went up in flames over disputed elections and politicians engaged in political grandstanding and chest-thumping, nobody seemed to be thinking about the effect their actions would have on the economy. The market, on the other hand, was quick to react to the unrest. Estimates indicate that about 5% was wiped off the value of companies listed on the Nairobi Stock Exchange. Commodity prices shot up – the New York Times reported cabbages being sold for almost 10 times the pre-election value.

The region’s economies also felt the pinch. Kenya’s ports and airports are transits for goods worth a quarter of the GDP of Uganda and Rwanda and one third of Burundi’s. It is no wonder that fuel prices shot up in these countries following the outbreak of violence that disrupted supplies through Kenyan roads. It is clear that when analyses are done the effect will be far worse than just the increase in fuel prices.

The long term effects may even be more damaging. A great amount of goodwill and confidence have been lost. Investor confidence will, understandably, plummet. Many had previously viewed Kenya to be above the kind of violence witnessed in the week following the Dec. 27 polls. Kenya’s near breakdown will definitely raise concerns over countries that have been deemed to be even less stable – countries like Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi – and this may result in these countries attracting less investment than they would have.

Kenyan leaders, and by extension the continent’s leaders, should realise that the rest of the world will not wait for them as they continue to epitomise poor governance and perpetual unrest. They should know that peace and stability are essential ingredients in the quest for economic and social development. If the trend continues – undemocratic governance, poor economic policies and morally bankrupt leadership – Africa will as sure as death continue to slip behind as other regions of the world continue to accelerate towards economic nirvana.

african leaders fail, again

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While Washington and Brussels have been scrambling to ensure a return to order in Kenya after the disputed presidential election, African leaders have been quiet, only issuing half-hearted statements condemning the violence that has gripped the country.

One would have thought that since Kenya was one of the remaining beacons of peace and stability on the continent, many leaders would come out to seek a speedy solution to its problems. But no. African leaders, in their characteristic style, would never be caught criticising each other. So even after one of them was believed to have rigged his way back to power, none of them had the spine to roundly condemn the rigging and call for dialogue.

Yar’Adua of Nigeria, Wade of Senegal and Mbeki of South Africa are nowhere to be seen. Kofuor attempted to be the mediator but later pulled back because the Kenyan government wasn’t too keen on getting his help. Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal and South Africa, being the four countries that can credibly criticise/influence Kenya, should have acted fast in order to restore peace and order in the country by pushing for negotiations between the president and the opposition leader.

Because of the silence of these African leaders we have been left with a situation in which the US and the UK seem to be more interested in peace in Kenya than Kenya’s immediate neighbors and other countries on the continent. Next time any of these leaders complain of neo-colonialism they deserve to have rotten eggs land on their faces. They have failed the continent and by allowing outsiders “run the show” on the continent gravely dented Africans’ self confidence, again.

It is most deplorable that no single leader on the continent has come out in defense of democracy. It just shows how long Africa still has to go before it can be called a land of democrats.

official results: Kibaki wins a second term

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The electoral commission of Kenya has just announced the results of this year’s general elections. In the end it turned out not to be the close race that most people expected. The president won by over 200,000 votes.

It remains uncertain what the main opposition group, led by Raila Odinga, win do in light of this announcement. Raila had earlier already declared himself the winner and urged the president to concede defeat.

Tensions remain high throughout the country even as the visibly tired Kivuiu is making the announcement on KBC, the government run national broadcaster.

rioters demand for results

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News by Nation confirms that rioting has begun in certain parts of the country as voters continue to demand for release of the results of the presidential vote in the just concluded general elections. Official ECK numbers from 159 constituencies show Raila leading with 3.7 vs Kibaki’s 3.4. This still remains a very close race and could go either way depending on the results coming in from the remaining constituencies.

The remaining areas are spread across the country in both ODM and PNU dominated areas. Meru district, parts of coast, Nyanza and Rift valley have not yet sent results and Kivuitu has expressed his dissatisfaction with the situation.

ODM has over 90 confirmed parliamentary seats. PNU has just over 30. Very worrying trend for the Kibaki campaign team since even if they win they are going to have a really hard time in parliament. ODM on the other hand seems to be itching to celebrate what they consider as an historic victory against an incumbent.

The ECK commissioners are having a meeting to chart the way forward. Kivuitu threatened to exclude the areas that had refused to send results by the time he addressed the press conference at about 11.30 am EAT.

I hope this ends well and that the rioting remains isolated in rural towns and does not spread to more populous towns. This was a clean election and the conclusion ought to be just as clean.

tension high in nairobi as eck delays announcement of results

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I just called home and my contacts tell me that there is increasing tension in the capital as the ECK continues to delay the announcement of presidential results. This is most acute in Eastlands where many youth have already started taking to the streets to protest what they see as an attempt by the government to rig the polls, especially the numbers coming out of PNU strongholds.

These are all unconfirmed rumors though. The real culprit is the ECK. They have done a great job so far and it is a shame that they are delaying in the tallying of results.

This is a worrying development. The last thing Kenya needs is rioting in the streets of the capital at a time when there is high tension among the members of both PNU and ODM. KBC is saying that Raila Odinga and his running mate Mudavadi are about to make press statements.

Unconfirmed rumors: Moi in hospital? and I also hear that Kibaki was down with fatigue? Any confirmation of this?

More to come soon……

kenya votes

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So today is the day Kenyans have been anticipating for the last several months. Beginning at 6 am. poll stations across the country will be opened so that Kenyans can go and choose their next government.

With campaigns having officially ended, the ball is now in the hands of the voters – many of whom must be glad that the season of noise and abuses is over. It is my hope that there will be a respectable voter turn out so that Kenyans choose the leader that most people prefer to be in the State House. I also hope that neither side will do anything silly that would make the loser not accept the outcome and thus drag the country through a period of uncertainty.

The race is going to be tight. According to the polls, Raila and Kibaki are in a statistical tie for the presidential vote. A high voter turnout could swing it either way. The parliamentary races are also going to be hotly contested. Even Raila is not so sure about his Lang’ata seat. Other doubtables are Mudavadi and a host of other outgoing MPs in the city.

All in all may it all go well so that come the 28th of December all Kenyans can forget about their political differences and come together to work for a better united Kenya.

Uganda’s tenuous peace process

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It is almost certain that Vincent Otti, the second in command in the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), is dead. Those in the know say that Otti was executed by Kony’s lieutenants in a place called Garamba some time in October. For those in the dark, the LRA is a rebel movement in Northern Uganda led by Joseph Kony. The movement has been waging a bloody rebellion against the Kampala government for over two decades now without much success. In the process it has emerged as one of the most brutal rebel groups in the world – Kony’s army is an unprofessional brood of thuggish child soldiers whose training process included numbing done by forcing them to rape and/or kill their own relatives. Over the years, Kony and his soldiers developed a habit of cutting off the lips of civilians that refused to be part of the rebellion thus sending tens of thousands of Ugandans to internally displaced people’s (IDP) camps.

It therefore came as a relief when Kampala decided to talk to the rebels after realizing that an outright military victory was not possible because of the extent to which the war has been civilianized. President Museveni even set a deadline, 31st January 2008, as the date by which the talks should be concluded. But things might actually turn for the worse in light of the new developments within the LRA.

Although Kampala has not acknowledged it, the death of Otti may slow down the talks. It is no secret that Otti was the brain behind the rebellion. Kony, the leader, is a rather superstitious man who sees himself as a spiritual medium and thinks that Uganda should be ruled according to the Ten Commandments of the Bible. He is more at ease around his illiterate and equally superstitious child soldiers and 60 odd wives than at the negotiating table. Otti on the other hand was a less creepy (but equally murderous) fellow who from the early stages of the talks emerged as the chief spokesman for the LRA – this may be the reason why Kony decided to liquidate him since it became clear who the more rational commander between the two was.

All in all, the people of Acholi, and indeed the whole of Uganda want this peace process to go on as planned. Museveni should not let this war drag on any further. Northern Ugandans have suffered enough. And just for good measure, Kony should be tried for war crimes, even if the Acholi forgive him – as they claim to be ready to do under their customary practices. He chose this path himself when he decided to cut off peoples’ lips, rape women, burn down villages and use children as soldiers, and all this to the same Acholi people whose rights he claims to be fighting for.

Kenya’s elections

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With just under four days to go, there is still no clear front-runner in the upcoming general elections in Kenya. According to the latest opinion polls, there is a statistical tie between the incumbent President Kibaki and the veteran opposition politician Raila Odinga.  Many observers have acknowledged that this is going to be a very closely contested election and therefore there is need to keep it absolutely free and fair because whoever wins will not do so with a wide margin – unless we have been fooled all along by the opinion polls, a fact that is not entirely implausible since statisticians have been known to get it wrong some times.

Statistics and opinion polls aside, the whole world is watching; which gives Kenya an opportunity to demonstrate that true democracy can flourish on the continent of Africa. The onus is on the electoral commission of Kenya to ensure, as they have guaranteed, that there are no irregularities in the December 27th poll. Only then will the losers of the election concede defeat respectfully and allow the country to move forward with whoever gets elected as president.

Even though the two major parties do not differ much in terms of their ideals and the contents of their manifestos, I think electioneering is still an invaluable process because it gives a sense of empowerment to the majority of voters since it makes them engage their leaders and feel as part of one country, even if just for the brief period of campaigns and emotionally charged political rallies as we have witnessed in the last three months.

May Kenya emerge on the 28th of December a united and peaceful nation state ready to move forward with a sound development agenda.

equatorial guinea, where does the money go?

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Equatorial Guinea is the third largest oil producer in Africa, right after Nigeria and Angola. Equatorial Guinea also has just over half a million people. It therefore defies logic that this country should still have many of its people living in squalid conditions. This country ranks 121st out of 177 on the UN Human development Index, even though it has a per capita income (PPP)  of 50,200 (CIA Factbook) – only second to Luxembourg in the entire world! Why are many Equatorial Guineans still dirt poor, dying from treatable illnesses and ignorant? Where is Teodore Obiang Nguema Mbasogo taking all the oil money?

This is a shame to the continent and to Obiang and his cronies. It is high time African leaders became their own keepers and fostered a culture of intra-continental competition rather than their old-school collusion to steal all they can from the poor and dying, as is happening in this fabulously wealthy country. This is especially important now that the EU and the US – because of competition for resources with China – have decided, like the latter, to turn a blind eye to gross injustices like this one.

With a total population smaller than those of most African capitals, and with all the oil money, how hard can it be to keep track of everyone and ensure that all Equatorial Guineans are well fed, educated and healthy?

zuma victory a loss for africa

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Even Desmond Tutu, the Nobel Peace Price laureate dubbed as South Africa’s conscience during the apartheid years, could not persuade the delegates at the ANC Congress in Polokwane not to elect Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma as their party’s next president. The eminent Nelson Mandela opted to stay above the fray on this one, citing impartiality but may be also because he saw it as a foregone conclusion. The mistake that was Zuma’s election is the full responsibility of Thabo Mbeki. This is a man who throughout his presidency has remained aloof and insensitive to South African street and village talk. Even at the congress he found it proper to bore the crowd with a more than two hour long speech on policy issues instead of pandering to their populist instincts. This was a vote against Mbeki in the same vein that many reasonable people had hoped that it be a vote against Zuma.

The implication of a Zuma presidency for South Africa is an issue that South Africans will have to deal with themselves. It may even be (hopefully) the era that finally corrects the injustices of the apartheid period. What worries me is how his presidency will pan out in the wider region. Mbeki, like the Ghanaian Nkrumah, was a lousy president at home but a great pan-Africanist. He was a key architect of the African Union and the NEPAD initiative. Mbeki was also an ideologue – of the tempered kind that Africa woefully lacks – who took time to seriously think of solutions to Africa’s problems. Mbeki had the courage to dream of an African Renaissance even as poverty and underdevelopment still plague the continent.

Of course the wishes of the South African people should supersede those of other Africans when they choose their leaders. I am also glad that Zuma’s election happened in a democratic manner. Institutionalization of democracy within the ANC, as I have pointed out before, is important since it is this party that will be electing South Africa’s president for many years to come – barring any major break-up. This said, I think it is important to acknowledge that South Africa, being the regional hegemon, has considerable influence in Africa. Because of this, people in Harare, Dakar or Nairobi have a reason to care and think of how outcomes in South African politics affect them.

Zuma, a man without much formal education, lacks the intellectual abilities that Mbeki has exhibited ever since his heydays as an ANC exile. He has proven to be a populist and to the best of my knowledge has not shown much interest on the region as a whole. If he chooses to be a domestic leader, like he seems he will, his election will indeed end up being a loss to the African people who desperately need visionary continental leadership to correct the evils of poverty, disease, ignorance and bad leadership.  

the church and aids in africa: some inconvenient truths

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It is quite a shame that the church is somewhat contributing to the spread of the HIV virus on the continent of Africa. Church leaders, especially of the Catholic variety, have always maintained that the use of contraceptives – including condoms – is against the will of God. Given Africans’ religiosity and respect for these men of God, many of them have ended up not using any form of protection or contraceptives while having sex. The result has been the very high fertility and HIV infection rates on the continent.

African governments have been fighting the AIDS scourge with very costly campaigns while turning a deaf year to the churches.Because in most cases the churches are the ones that provide much needed public goods and social services, they’ve come to have a stronger grip on the people’s minds and hearts than the government. It is therefore a no brainer that even on the life and death issue of condom use they tend to listen more to the men of God than to Caesar.

This should not be the case. To echo Wole Soyinka, “Even in a purely theocratic state, there comes a point – surely – at which the state must restrict clerical interference in clearly scientific matters, most especially where human well being and survival are at issue.” Although the percentage of those infected because of their religious persuasions may be small, the fact is that their infection is preventable. It is because of this that governments should step in and rid pulpits of this madness. Church leaders should stop deluding themselves that their call for abstinence is in God’s people’s interest.The truth is that God’s people will always have sex and therefore need ways to control their fertility and protect themselves against terrible sexually transmitted diseases.

This does not mean that the churches should stop preaching about chastity and sexual purity. On the contrary, I say they should redouble their effort. But they should also be flexible on contraceptives, including condoms, for the safety of the many of their flock who fall to the temptations of the flesh.

The continent’s men of God should take time off next time they are in Rome, London or Texas – from where they get their cue – to inquire about the rates of condom use and fertility of their fellow believers in these places.

 

 

thoughts on africa’s population figures

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The other day I came across some stats that got me thinking. It is apparent that at the current rate of population growth, Africa’s population will double in the next half century (Even after having discounted for malaria and – according to the Economist – the over-estimated AIDS figures). This can either be a blessing or a curse.

It could be a blessing due to the fact the non-viability of some African states is because they are too sparsely populated and do not have big enough internal markets to support robust economies or generate enough revenue in terms of taxes to pay for effective government. Therefore, a big population would bring more good than harm. I am not saying that the solution to Africa’s poverty and lack of development is a higher population growth; I am just making the observation that populous Ethiopia is more viable as a sovereign state than huge but thinly populated Chad or Niger.

The negative effects, however, are more real and immediate. As it stands, Africa cannot feed its entire population – hence its current reliance on food imports and relief to meet the balance. Furthermore, due to rather dismal economic performance over the last four decades, the population growth rate has far outstripped economic growth. As a consequence, Africa is the only region in the world where per capita incomes have declined since the seventies. The ideal solution to this problem would be to simply increase the rate of economic growth to surpass that of population, but this cannot just be made possible with a magic wand. It will take time.

The situation therefore calls for a clear and well formulated population policy. If Africa is to take off economically and improve its deplorable average living standards, it has to arrest the high rate of population growth (continental average fertility is more than 5 children per woman, the world average is below 3). This need not be some China-like thing, I believe that with the right incentives to families and insistence on longer and better education of girls the situation can be changed. Studies have shown that, on average, better educated women tend to have fewer, healthier and better educated children.

In the future though, with proper planning, I think it is in the continent’s best interest to have a big population. By some estimates, Africa can support upwards of 1.5 billion people with its 28% arable land (China has 13%). A big and economically vibrant population will not only be invaluable in reducing the continent’s over-reliance on foreign trade (internal trade accounts for paltry 10%) but also for strategic security purposes.

the drc and its war of attrition

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Last week the government of the Democratic Rep. of Congo (DRC) belatedly announced that it had captured Mushake, a rebel held town in the Eastern fringes of Africa’s second largest country. This was seen by many as a sign of government commitment to winning the war (now that the rebels seem not to care about negotiations) and finally restoring peace to the region. It therefore came as a surprise when it emerged that the government had lost the town again to the rebels.

The DRC is a country that has never known peace; going back to the days when it was personal property of King Leopold of Belgium. Even after independence, the secessionist attempts by Katanga (South Eastern region), the assassination of Lumumba and Mobutu’s kleptocratic and murderous rule did not make things better. When Mobutu died there was hope that the elder Kabila would bring peace and a sense of nationhood. But this was not to be; Kabila was assassinated by his own men and succeeded by his son. The younger Kabila has tried to make peace, first with the Bemba led opposition and then with the Eastern rebels, but without much success.

The recent loss of Mushake is a sign of government ineptitude in fighting this war. It is clear that the rebels and their sponsors in Rwanda and Uganda do not want peace and will do anything to keep the embers burning because this way they will have unregulated, tax free access to the minerals in the Eastern region. The Kinshasa government cannot afford a war of attrition with the rebels as this will distract it from its main objectives of providing public goods for all its citizens, not to mention the long term effects such a war will have. The sooner Kabila gets his act together and wins this war, the better it is going to be not only for the Congolese but also for the entire great lakes region.

The African Union and other regional bodies should support the government in making sure that the rebels are defeated and punished for their criminal adventures. Although the Kinshasa government is not the best government the DRC could ever have, secessionist wars are not the best way to deal with this problem. The rebels should know that in this day and age there are better ways of expressing one’s grievances; ways that do not contribute to unwarranted human suffering and wastage of scarce resources.

piracy off the somali coast

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If you thought piracy belonged to the 19th century, think again. This year alone there have been at least 26 attacks by pirates off the coast of Somalia. The latest incident involves a Japanese ship (the Golden Nori) that had 23 crew and tens of thousands of tons of inflammable benzene.

The pirates are demanding a $ 1 million ransom or else they will kill the crew of the ship.The situation has been further complicated by the fact that according to a 1992 UN resolution establishing an arms embargo, foreign troops are not allowed to enter Somali waters.The UN regulations have made it difficult for the US navy and Kenyan authorities to fully police this region of the Indian ocean and end the piracy.

Keeping Somalia’s lawlessness within its borders has always been tricky. In the past the many fundamentalist thugs running around in the country mainly dealt in illegal arms and smuggled goods across the region but lately they seem have found a new lucrative business – piracy and kidnapping of foreigners for ransom.

As negotiations go on for the release of the hostages it has become apparent that the Somali problem cannot be ignored for long if peace and stability is to be achieved in the horn of Africa. And with the US keen to win the global assault on terror, the last thing it needs is a failed stage occupied by these extremist thugs.

mauritania, still fighting slavery

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Mauritania remains the last outpost of the distasteful practice of slavery. Although the government abolished the practice in 1982, little was done to stop the country’s well to do, black and barber alike, from enslaving their own fellow citizens. According to the Open Society Justice Initiative, about 20% of the population- close to 500,000 people – have been enslaved over the last three decades.

This grim situation might soon change. There have been signs of progress in this desert country since its first ever democratic elections in March of 2007. The new government has shown its commitment to ending the vice by passing a much awaited legislation to criminalize slavery in August of this year. This was followed in November by an announcement by the finance minister of a 19 million euros plan for the reintegration of former slaves into the community. The money will be channeled towards poverty alleviation and empowerment of the rural poor who have bore the brunt of this most heinous violation of human rights.

Human rights groups are “very pleased,” with the development but at the same time one wonders why it took so long for the government of Mauritania or other regional organizations to take action and end this most abhorrent practice.