Tag Archives: Sekou toure

Resource Dependence in Africa (with some thoughts on Mozambique)

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Source: The World Bank

Source: The World Bank. Click on image to enlarge  

This map shows resource rents as a share of GDP for the period 2009-2013. Note that the colouring on the map is about to change, with the Indian Ocean east coast getting some of the hydrocarbon action that has hitherto been a preserve of the Atlantic coast and a couple of landlocked states like Chad, Sudan and South Sudan (The biggest change in West Africa will most likely be in Guinea once the mining of its high grade iron ore in the Simandou Mountains gets going. A few contractual and logistical hurdles still stand in the way of the mega mining project).

The eastern African states of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Mozambique are about to get a shade or more redder. Kenya and Uganda will start producing oil between 2016-17. Tanzania and Mozambique have massive amounts of natural gas, with Mozambique having recently climbed to top four in the world with a capacity to meet total global demand for more than two years.

As you may have guessed Mozambique is by far the country to watch out for as far as the ongoing eastern African resource bonanza is concerned. The country will continue to see a rapid rise in coal production, ultimately producing an estimated 42 million tons in 2017. Mozambique’s Gold production is also expected to more than triple by 2017 relative to its 2011 level. Estimates suggest that based on the full capacity exploitation of coal and gas alone the Mozambican economy could rise to become SSA’s third or fourth largest (after Nigeria, South Africa and (or ahead of) Angola). Going by the 2012 GDP figures from the Bank, that would be a change from US$14 billion to about $114 billion.

Have you enrolled in Portuguese classes yet?

As Mozambique gets wealthier in the next five years at a vertiginous pace, it will be interesting to see if it will go the Angola way. Both are former Portuguese colonies that had drawn out civil wars. Both tried to have democratic elections but then the ruling parties managed to completely vanquish the opposition. And both continue to be ruled by overwhelmingly dominant parties that appear to have consolidated power.

My hunch is that Mozambique is different, as FRELIMO is less of a one man show than is the MPLA. Indeed FRELIMO just selected a successor to Guebuza, the Defense Minister Filipe Nyusi (Nyusi’s background in engineering and the railway sector should prove useful for the development of the country’s coal industry).

The Tanzanian model of dominant/hegemonic party with term limits appears to have spread south. And that is a good thing. The other African country that appears to be embracing this model is Ethiopia (I think I can now say that the Zenawi succession was smooth and that Desalegn, also an engineer, is credibly term limtied).

Kampala, Kigali and Yaounde should borrow a leaf from these guys (that is, as a second best strategy given that their respective leaders do not seem to be into the idea of competitive politics).

For more on the politics and management of natural resources in Africa see here, here and here.

Guinea’s Alpha Conde attacked

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President Alpha Conde, Guinea’s first elected president since independence, appears to have survived a coup attempt in the early hours of Tuesday. Mr. Conde’s residence was hit by rocket fire in what appears to have been a coup attempt.

The latest turn of events makes one wonder if Paul Collier’s rather crazy unorthodox proposals might be worth a shot. [Collier, among other recommendations, proposes an international guarantee of sorts that democratically-elected governments that remain true to proper governance will be protected from the army and other armed thugs that might want to overthrow them.]

I believe that local horse-trading should always be given a chance before the internationals fly in to impose agreements on feuding factions. But when local factions have fought each other to a stalemate – as is the case in Chad, Central African Republic, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Somalia – it might be time for the international community to provide a helping hand. Millions of civilians should not be left to suffer simply because a few men cannot strike a stable deal. The interventions will be nuanced and complicated and messy – so I can’t spell out the terms here – but simply sitting back and watching is not an option.

Simply stated, the men with guns in Guinea are irresponsible.

Guinea is also a budding narco-state. I would not be surprised if the latest attack on the president is linked to the emerging drug problem in west Africa. It is common knowledge that the son of the immediate former president of Guinea, Ousmane Conte, has/had ties with the drug trade. President Joao Vieira of Guinea-Bissau and the country’s top military officer were killed in 2009 in what was rumored to be a drug-related feud.

Mr. Conde was elected in a run off with 52% of the vote. Two years earlier in 2008 the army carried out a coup following the death of the country’s second president, the late Lansana Conte. Mr. Conte himself came to power in a coup following the death of Guinea’s firebrand founding president Sekou Toure. Many hailed the generals’ decision to return to the barracks in 2010 as a new turn in Guinean politics. They were wrong.

The BBC reports that a former army chief, Nouhou Thiam, has been arrested in relation to the Tuesday morning attack.

alpha conde confirmed winner of Guinea’s presidential poll

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Update:

The Daily Nation reports:

Guinea’s losing presidential poll candidate Cellou Dalein Diallo (left) on Friday accepted results of the election, saying he had no choice but to comply with the Supreme Court’s decision.

The BBC reports that Alpha Conde has been confirmed the winner of Guinea’s (Conakry) presidential election. Mr. Conde got 52% of the vote. His opponent Mr. Cellou Diallo had gone to court challenging the results.

President-elect Alpha Conde

Mr. Conde won a mere 18% in the first round against Diallo’s 44% thus forcing the runoff. The standoff following the runoff threatened to plunge the country into chaos. If confirmed into office Mr. Conde will be Guinea’s first elected president since independence.

Guinea has been under an interim government led by Gen Sekouba Konate since the 2008 coup. The coup came after the death of Lansana Conte, dictator for 24 years. Mr. Conte himself rose to power in a coup following the death of Guinea’s founding president Sekou Toure.

guineans await final verdict

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The military has declared a state of emergency and banned political protests amid anxiety over who should lead the world’s biggest exporter of bauxite. There is a risk of the political competition between Messrs Conde and Diallo degenerating into ethnic conflict, pitting the Malinke against the Peul. 40% and 30% of Guineans are Peul and Malinke, respectively. The International Crisis Group reports:

Following the announcement of presidential election results on 15 November, handing Alpha Condé victory over his rival, Cellou Dalein Diallo, the country has descended into violence, with two days of clashes in the streets of the capital, Conakry, and elsewhere. Defence and security forces have engaged in systematic attacks on supporters of Diallo’s Union des Forces Démocratiques de Guinée (UFDG), a party associated mainly with the Peul ethnic group in major urban areas in the Fouta region. Earlier on, UFDG supporters were involved in attacking and destroying properties belonging to ethnic Malinké and Peul supporters of Condé’s Rassemblement du Peuple de Guinée (RPG) party.

Mr. Conde has offered to form a government of national unity, that presumably would include Mr. Diallo, should the Supreme Court declare him the winner.

Guinea has nearly half of all declared bauxite (Aluminium ore) reserves. 76% of its 10.3 million people depend on the agricultural sector. 47% of Guineans live below the poverty line. Per capita income stands at US$ 1000. Someone born in Guinea can expect to live to be 58 years old. Since independence the country has been led by ineffectual, ideologically deficient and backward unimaginative dictators, from Toure to Conte to Konate.

alpha conde elected in Guinea

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Opposition leader Alpha Conde has been declared the winner in the just concluded runoffs in Guinea. Mr. Conde garnered a mere 18% of the vote in the first round compared to his rivals 44%. 52% of the voters decided to side with him in the second round.

Guinea has been under an interim government led by Gen Sekouba Konate since the 2008 coup. The coup came after the death of Lansana Conte, dictator for 24 years. Mr. Conte himself rose to power in a coup following the death of Guinea’s founding president Sekou Toure.