Category Archives: africa

lessons not learned

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It has been 25 years since the 1984-85 Ethiopian famine that inspired Bob Geldof and Midge Ure to write the song do they know it’s christmas?

The Ethiopian government is marking the anniversary in the most appropriate way: by appealing for food aid from the international community to assist the more than 6.2 million of its citizens who are faced with starvation sans food aid. Yes, over the last 25 years the government of Ethiopia has not been able to put in place systems to guarantee its people food security. It is almost like 1985 never happened. Agriculture  (which is dominated by coffee) accounts for over 40% of GDP and makes up 60% of Ethiopian exports (CIA factbook). Now, I am no expert on agricultural economics or on Ethiopia per se but I am willing to bet a few hundred shillings that Addis must be favoring cash-cropping over basic food security. I guess it is just a lot easier to tax coffee exports than peasant agriculture – especially if you have an expensive autocratic system to maintain.

I say food aid should be conditioned on Meles Zenawi loosening his grip on power. Just like food aid during the last famine helped prolong the civil war at the time (see Alex de Waal), giving Zenawi food aid without any preconditions will just continue to perpetuate the very system that has been unable to guarantee food security for Ethiopians. Sen’s beliefs on autocracies and famines are partly true. Ethiopians continue to have these cycles of famine because Addis does not have to listen to the average peasant in Afar.

This does not mean that we should heartlessly sit back and watch millions of people die. No, those that can should assist as many people as is possible. However, while at it, the international community should insist on fairer government in Addis. It doesn’t have to be about regime change through elections or those other democratic stuff. All is needed is a guarantee of the chance for average Ethiopians to live decent lives without having to worry about major famines every decade or so.

celebrating kenyatta day

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Macharia Gaitho has a rather hard hitting editorial piece in the Daily Nation today. His rather utopian idealization of the revolutionary Kenyan peasantry aside (they are very complicit in the creation of the mess that is Kenya today), I think he raises some serious questions that the country – and especially the ruling class – needs to revisit as it celebrates Kenyatta Day.

Happy Kenyatta Day!!

There is no worthy ex-president in Africa, at least not this year

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The Mo Ibrahim award goes to no one this year. The award is intended for former African presidents that have shown good leadership by peacefully relinquishing power and then doing some good after that (mediating a conflict or facilitating dialogue over disputed elections and what not). It’s a $ 5 million award for the first ten years outside of office, followed by $ 200,000 every year for life. Yes, African presidents have to be bribed to relinquish power.

But why aren’t they giving up?

Crude back of the envelope calculations reveals that the answer lies in the macro-economics of these countries. For example, in Uganda, the interest rate is slightly less than the inflation rate (at least according to the central bank website). Which means that if you put your money in the bank or invest it in treasury bills you will not be making much in the long-run.

Now assuming Museveni expects to live for 30 years after he retires, my back of the envelope calculations reveal a present value of only $ 22 million from the Mo Ibrahim award. This is probably change compared to what the big man in Kampala (well, now in Entebbe –  it’s close to the airport for easy escape in case stuff hits the fun) can make every year for the next 30 years if he stays in power. For instance, assuming that Uganda’s economy will grow at an average of 2% over the 30 years and that Museveni takes away 0.1% of the country’s GDP of 34.23 b (at PPP), then the man will have a present value of 25 m. Notice that 25>22, and by the way 0.1% is a very conservative estimate.

So it could be that what Mo needs to attract more contenders willing to relinquish power is more money. $5 million for 10 years and then $200,000 per year for life thereafter is simply not enough.

Alternatively, instead of just giving the ex-presidents the money, it should come with a guarantee that the Mo Ibrahim Foundation will help them invest the money in the international markets. This way, their frame of reference will not be the potential returns in their domestic economies  – which may not add much value to the award money – but the more lucrative international markets.

guinea-bissau has no prisons??

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IRIN reports that Guinea-Bissau has no prisons. Yes, seriously. A “sovereign” state in 2009 has no formal prisons. According to the US State Department the Guinea-Bissau government detains suspects in make-shift detention centres and military bases.

Don’t you wish it was 1894 and it was still cool to move into Bissau and change things a bit? How does the international system sit back and pretend that Guinea-Bissau, as currently constituted, is a viable state? The number one function of the state should be to protect its citizens – from both foreign aggressors and internal thugs. A state that has no prisons is clearly sending a very loud signal that it cannot perform its basic function and in effect should be game, if only it was still 1894.

of african IDPs

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I could not miss the irony. African leaders will be gathered in Kampala, Uganda (19th – 23rd Oct.) to come up with a mechanism to protect the more than 11 million internally displaced people (IDPs) on the Continent. IRIN touts this as a landmark move. But I beg to ask the question: Is anyone asking these leaders what is causing this internal displacement in the first place? Couldn’t we all be better off if the kleptocrats who run the Continent were not into stealing elections, emptying their national treasuries, marginalizing segments of their populations and in extreme cases committing acts of genocide? Wouldn’t it be cheaper to not have IDPs in the first place?

i still don’t get how the church justifies this

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The Catholic Church, among other churches, continues to be opposed to birth control measures that also help in the prevention of AIDS. This is such a disappointment. Millions of people have died from the disease since its emergence in the 1980s. Currently there are more than 20 million infected people on the Continent, and 11 million orphans as a result of HIV-related deaths. Clearly this is a situation that calls for a rethink of the Church’s policy on the use of condoms.

This is separate from the abortion debate. This is about disease prevention. I find it hard to reconcile church teachings of love with the heartless condemnation of millions to their graves. Now, individuals can make their own decisions regarding whether to engage in unprotected sex or not. But I also think that it matters if their priest or pastor tells them to do so. As long as the church is against AIDS prevention (yes, refusal to allow condom use amounts to being against AIDS prevention) government efforts to tame the disease will continue to founder.

It is easy for moralists perched up in far off places to dictate to their faithfuls on the Continent that they should not use birth control or protect themselves against AIDS. But African governments should know better than to stand by and let this be. They are the ones who are losing hundreds of thousands of teachers, doctors, engineers, civil servants and most importantly PARENTS every year. Millions of children are left orphaned and therefore a burden to the state. Rome or the evangelical churches will never have to deal with the losses that these governments have to deal with as a result.

There is a huge disconnect between the church and the realities on the ground on the Continent. The fact of the matter is that people are having sex outside of wedlock. The church (and even the state) should have good reasons to worry about this (the concern here being the hordes of unplanned pregnancies, especially among teenagers). But the best way to deal with it is not to preach abstinence and then pretend that people will listen. Governments and the church should be aggressive with ALL preventive measures. Once the disease is down to negligible levels then perhaps we can revive the moralizing crusades. Now is simply not the time.

what ali ben bongo owes gabon

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His father ruled Gabon, an oil and timber rich nation of 1.4 million, for 42 years. The elder Bongo passed away this year and was succeeded by his son Ali Ben after a disputed election. Nobody really expected things to turn out otherwise.

That said, one hopes that Ali Ben will feel the need to make things a bit better for the hundreds of thousands of Gabonese who continue to be shut out of the wealth from oil and timber. Gabon is Africa’s fourth largest oil producer and its second largest timber producer. During Omar Bongo’s 42 year presidency most of this money ended up in private bank accounts – the late president was the subject of an investigation involving Citibank, where he held millions of dollars in a private account.

I don’t have much on the younger Bongo. He seems like a non-starter. If we are to believe the BBC the only notable thing he said after being sworn in as president yesterday was that he wants renewal within the Gabonese elite. May be by this he means more social mobility. The VOA quoted him to have said that he plans to end corruption and injustice – one wonders where he was during his father’s failed 42-year presidency (apologies, the WSWS was the only place I could find a history of the guy). I would have wanted to hear him say something about oil and timber and redistribution of Gabon’s national wealth. I mean, how hard can it be to run a nation of 1.4 million? With all that oil wealth Gabon could give Botswana a run for its money.

Ali Ben owes Gabon a lot. His father stole from the country. He now has a chance to make up for it by putting the nation on the path to decency. This is not too much to ask, is it?

this has got to have been the most stupid law ever

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You can stop wondering what Nigerian law-makers had in mind when they passed this law.

And in other news, Luis Moreno-Ocampo the Argentine chief prosecutor of ICC is due in Kenya in the next few weeks. Watch this space. This is gonna be interesting, both from a comparative politics and international relations perspective.

Defending Nairobi

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The New York Times has a story on the security situation in Nairobi. In the interest of full disclosure, Nairobi is my home town. I was there this summer and would like to point out – just for the record – that although Nairobi may not be the safest place in the world, it is not the most dangerous city in the world either. The city has 4 million people, give or take. Income inequality is off the charts. The city’s economy cannot provide enough jobs for its youth, most of whom do not spend enough time in school and therefore resort to petty theft to earn a living. This summer there was a wave of kidnappings. Some were by real criminals. At least one that got exposed was by a young woman trying to get money from her father by pretending that she was kidnapped.The Nairobi city council is run by a bunch of clowns.

I agree with Gettleman that the incidence of crime in Nairobi is way too high. That said, Nairobi is not Jo’burg or Kabul. It is still very much a live-able city – as evidenced by the many NGOs and UN agencies that have set up shop in there.

something awesome from JKUAT

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The Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology has an awesome blog. Check it out.

the ostrich way is the wrong way

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Agriculture minister William Ruto (the de facto political leader of the Rift Valley Province) has dismissed reports of an ethnic arms race in his backyard as mere rumors. George Saitoti, the minister for internal security has equally dismissed the same reports.

I understand that the government is trying to show that it is in charge and that in fact there is not a widespread arms race in the Rift Valley – the area worst affected by the post-election violence of last year. An admission from the government might cause even more anxiety and force even the otherwise pacific parts of the population to seek guns. That said, I hope that these public denials are mere PR and that the government in actuality is lookin into the issue with a view of stopping the proliferation of small arms in the area and possibly arresting and prosecuting the arms-traffickers (hey, don’t judge. I am allowed to fantasize once in a while).

kenyan ethnic groups arming ahead of 2012

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I just read this on the BBC and can’t stop wishing that it is all hype. The report quotes a number of Kenyans – mostly from the Rift Valley – who seem to be acknowledging that segments of the Kenyan population are arming ahead of the 2012 elections. And this time round instead of machetes and bows and arrows they are getting guns, machine guns. A Kenyan working for an NGO in Eldoret confirmed the BBC report.

I am assuming, or rather hoping that the Kenyan intelligence community is not sleeping on the job like they did in the run-up to the 2007 elections. If people are buying machine guns it can only mean one thing. If Kenya is ever to have a civil war it will be fought in the Rift Valley. Other political conflicts in Kenya have always been over the sharing of divisible goods – mainly payoffs in terms of good jobs and chances for sleaze among the many ethnic entrepreneurs that populate the Kenyan political landscape. But the conflict in the Rift Valley will be about a somewhat indivisible good – LAND. Those that own the land will not let go or share it easily, more so if they have machine guns. And those that think that the land was taken from them wrongly will perhaps  also be willing to fight for the land, more so if they also have machine guns.

The contest in 2012 just seems to get messier and messier. Kibaki should consider calling a snap election and then stepping down. That may catch the plotters unawares and bring a decisive victory to one party or the other. May be then the government will be able to deal with all these issues – land, judicial reforms, security etc – without the many distractions that the current government faces.

And in other news, Jaindi Kisero (one of my favorite columnists) has a piece on the slightly positive signs the Kenyan economy has shown so far. If only the nation’s political class would get its act togehter…

I also found this discussion on the IMF and WB interesting.

One, more thing.  Last week I attended a talk by Paul Romer on Charter cities. The idea is as exciting as it is provocative. I still don’t know what to make of it though. Read more about it here.

top genocidaire arrested

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The BBC reports that a former Rwandan intelligence chief suspected to have been responsible for the drawing up of death lists (including more proximately, the murder of a Tutsi queen) has been arrested in Uganda. I remain impressed by the efficacy of the UN tribunal on the Rwandan genocide in getting those that planned the murder of over 800,000 people.

I am however disappointed by the reluctance of the security apparatuses in east Africa to arrest Felicien Kabuga, a man suspected to have bankrolled genocidaires. Kabuga remains elusive. Some people believe that he is in hiding somewhere in Kenya.

guineans have to elect Camara, or else…

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Speaking to a French radio station Moussa Camara (junior officer who now leads the military junta in Guinea that just killed over 157 people this past week) intimated that the country was in danger of experiencing another military coup were he to step down. This by extension means that the country will experience a military coup if he doesn’t win in the general election in January because, he says, the army is “unstructed.” Now we have had this line before. And it works quite well. Charles Taylor threatened the Liberians into voting for him at the end of the that country’s bloody civil war. Camara seems to be employing the same tactic to armtwist poor Guineans into letting him hold onto the reins of power. And he is totally not ashamed of the transparency of what he is doing. May be it is a junior army officer thing.

I wonder why it is always this half-baked junior officers that take over in coups in (West) Africa – the worst ever being Liberia’s Samuel Doe.  Where are the Sandhurst and Westpoint educated generals? I think they might do a better job running countries than these junior officers. Perhaps it might be that the generals are already in the pockets of the civilians being overthrown in the first place. But still.

ringera calls it quits

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I just watched a clip on the Nation’s website showing the press conference at which outgoing director of the Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission, retired judge Ringera announced his departure from Integrity Centre. I don’t understand exactly why it took him so long to see the sense in doing this.The clip also hinted at rumors that Ringera may get a job in the judiciary. I hope not. He was ineffectual at KACC. He earned 2 million shillings a month and delivered nothing for Wanjiku. Public service, and the emoluments that come with it, is not the right of a select group of Kenyans. We should not keep recycling the same names. And this is not restricted to just the high profile national offices. We transfer ineffectual DCs, PPOs, directors and chiefs all the time. No wonder the more we try to implement change the more things stay the same.

As Ringera left he made some very useful suggestions on how parliament can strengthen the KACC. May be we should award his courage in resigning by implementing some of these ideas.

And on a sort of related topic, I wish Annan and Ocampo would stop issuing threats. Just give us the names. Let us know who is suspected of having done what in last year’s post poll violence. These leaders need to be named and shamed instead of being given more time to continue mis-shaping Kenya’s destiny.