Tag Archives: Niamey

The Politics of the CFA Franc Zone

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This is from the Economist:

Where some see an anchor, others see a millstone. To maintain the euro peg, notes Ndongo Samba Sylla, a Senegalese economist, these very poor countries must track the hawkish monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Since the introduction of the euro, income per person in the franc zone has grown at 1.4% a year, compared with 2.5% in all of sub-Saharan Africa.

More on this here.

People like Cameroonian president Paul Biya love the CFA. With good reason.

Yet elites do rather well out of the system, which makes it easier to send wealth abroad. And a weaker currency would increase the cost of imported goods. The only devaluation, in 1994, sparked riots.

Hundreds of South African Mercenaries Fighting Boko Haram

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The New York Times reports:

Hundreds of South African mercenaries and hired fighters of other nationalities are playing a decisive role in Nigeria’s military campaign against Boko Haram, operating attack helicopters, armored personnel carriers and fighting to retake towns and villages captured by the Islamist militant group, according to senior officials in the region.

The Nigerian government has not acknowledged the presence of the mercenaries, but a senior government official in northern Nigeria said the South Africans — camped out in a remote portion of the airport in Maiduguri, the city at the heart of Boko Haram’s uprising — conduct most of their operations at night because “they really don’t want to let people know what is going on.”

This does not look good for the $2.3-billion-per-year Nigerian military. It also shows a complete lack of tact on the part of the Goodluck Jonathan administration. I mean, how hard could it have been to launder the South African mercenary involvement through some AU joint task force?

The way I see it, the problem here is not that Nigeria is using foreign fighters (even the mighty U.S. uses mercenaries, and as Tolu Ogunlesi writes in FT, the tide is turning against Boko Haram). The problem is in how they are being used. Is their use short-circuiting accountability chains between Nigerians affected and their government? How is it affecting civilian-military relations? And what will be the long-run consequences on the professionalization of the Nigerian military?

The disappearing Lake Chad, 1963-2001

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I have been looking at the African Development Bank’s long term strategy (available here) and one of the figures that caught my eye was the extent to which Lake Chad has shrunk over the last 50 years. Wow.

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Niger’s military keeps its word

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The Nigerien military, led by Salou Djibo, has handed over power to democratically elected President Mahamadou Issoufou. The military ousted strongman Mamadou Tandja 14 months ago after he attempted to extend his rule beyond the term limit. Twice now, the last time being in 1999, the Nigerien military has intervened in politics in support of democracy.

The new president has promised to tackle poverty and famine in the uranium-rich country.

Former president Tandja had been in power since 1999. In late 2009 he was supposed to leave office at the end of his two terms but amended the constitution in a sham referendum allowing him to stay on for a third term. This forced the military to step in. Mr. Tandja’s presidency did not do much for Niger’s 15 million odd citizens. 63% of them continue to live on less than a dollar a day.

the generals have kept their word

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My doubts were misplaced, thank goodness. Soldiers in Niger have overseen elections, one year after overthrowing Mamadou Tandja. President Tandja had attempted to cling on to power after he was term-limited. Gen. Salou Djibo, head of the military junta that carried out the coup one year ago, vowed to hand over power to the elected government in April.

The run-off election pitted opposition leader Mahamadou Issoufou against Seini Oumarou, an ally of the ousted former President Tandja. Mr. Issoufou won 36% of the vote in the first round and is confident of winning the runoff.

Uranium-rich Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world. Nominal per capita income in the country is $370 (Around $700 PPP). The literacy rate (15 years and older) is a dismal 29%. Fertility rate stands at 7.6 children per woman and 63% of its 16.4 million people live below the poverty line.

child-bride index

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African states dominate the Economist’s child-bride index, with the Sahelian states of Mali, Niger and Chad in the top three. They also have the lowest literacy rates among their female populations.

This is one of those problems associated with “culture” that most development experts shy away from. My take on this is that the cultural defenses of such practices is a lot of horse manure.

There is nothing African about marrying off a 12 year old girl.

Most child marriages have deep-rooted economic motivations. In most cases it boils down to the bride-price. Solving the problem will therefore require not just laws that throw “human rights” at young African girls, but a concerted effort that also includes development practitioners to provide alternative income to men who marry off their 12 year-olds in exchange for goats.

ushering in the new year

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Happy new year to all readers.

2011 will be a crucial year for a few countries on the Continent. On January 9th Southern Sudan will vote for secession, creating the newest state in the world. The aftermath of that might be all out war with North Sudan (over borders and oil) and/or civil war in the south (ethnically motivated warfare over control of the new state). That is what most analysts predict. I think there is a glimmer of hope for peace due to heavy Kenyan investment in the south and the desire to build, link and orient the new nation towards the East African Community. Watch this space as it all unfolds.

Uganda will hold elections on February 18th. Yoweri Museveni will win big and dig in even more now that Uganda has oil in the west of the country. Also bolstering Mr. Museveni’s hold on power will be the LRA’s delusional insurgency in the north of the country and the continuing war on terror in the horn of Africa – Uganda’s troops form the core of the African Union (AU) forces in Somalia. Mr. Museveni has been in power since 1986.

The other major election will be in Nigeria, the continental behemoth in the west. President Goodluck Jonathan is favored to win, but his victory will most certainly be tainted with chaos and irregularities.

Other countries holding elections in the new year are Central African Republic, Benin, Madagascar, Cape Verde, Chad, Djibouti, Niger and Liberia.

Electoralism remains largely dysfunctional and inconsequential in Africa because of a myriad of structural impediments (poverty, weak institutions, monarchical presidentialism, etc). In the recent past events in Kenya, Zimbabwe and Cote d’Ivoire have shown how far the Continent is from being a liberal democratic paradise (may be democracy is not for everyone at all times?). 2011’s elections will no doubt fail to buck the trend.

the lra menace

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That Joseph Kony and his top lieutenants are still alive and well is testament to the ineptitude of the Ugandan and Congolese armies. The Ugandan rebel leader continues to roam the forests in the border regions of Chad, the DRC, Uganda and Southern Sudan, killing villagers with abandon. The BBC reports that late last year the Lord’s Resistance Army massacred more than 300 people.

The LRA has morphed into a thuggish movement with loads of ideological deficit. They stand no chance of reaching Kampala and so roam in the forests of the great lakes region killing villagers and abducting children. This is yet another textbook case on the Continent of a rebellion that festers on for no other reason than because of state incapacity.

will the nigerien colonels keep their word?

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The coup leaders in Niger promised a return to democracy as soon as possible. Perhaps as a signal that they are willing to keep their word on this they have appointment a civilian as prime minister.They have also promised that none of the military leaders in government will take part in elections whenever they are held. For now I shall give the colonels the benefit of the doubt on this one, after all they proved pretty reliable when they re-instituted democratic rule after a coup in 1999. Fingers crossed.

More on this here

And in other news, do Kenyan politicians take themselves seriously? Like really? Don’t we have enough national holidays?

Also, kudos to the South African authorities for a job well done. Although if I had it my way I would have some mechanism within the AU to hold individual leaders personally accountable for violations of arms embargoes (well, if only the AU was not a club of autocrats, genocidaires and kleptocrats, with a few democrats here and there).

president tandja ousted in coup

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Nigerien president Mamadou Tandja has been ousted in a military coup. An announcement on national radio stated that the Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy was now in charge of the country. The council includes Col. Salou Djibo (the leader) and and four other colonels.The president and members of his cabinet are being held at a military barracks outside the capital Niamey after they were seized during a cabinet meeting.

Mr. Tandja had been president since 1999. Last year he was supposed to leave office at the end of his two terms but amended the constitution in a sham referendum allowing him to stay on for a third term. His presidency did not do much for Niger’s 15 million odd citizens. 63% of them continue to live on less than a dollar a day.

It is almost tempting to say good riddance, but given the track record of military rule (remember Guinea?) in West Africa the Nigeriens may have jumped out of the frying pan into the fire. Only time will tell. In the meantime condemnation of the coup and calls for an immediate return to democracy keep coming from the AU, ECOWAS, EU and other concerned parties. How things never change.

another african big man won’t leave

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Mamadou Tandja, the president of Niger, yesterday announced that he will ignore a court order against a referendum on whether to extend his rule or not after his term expires later this year, adding that he will continue to rule by decree. Mr. Tandja has been in office since 1999 and is constitutionally barred from running for a third term. His second term ends later this year. The country’s parliament was dissolved in May. It is unclear whether parliamentary elections scheduled for August 2oth will be held.

Niger, a nation of 15 million, is one of the poorest countries in the world. Its per capita income is US $700 despite being a major uranium exporter. Most Nigeriens depend on subsistence agriculture for their livelihood in this mostly desert country. Ever shortening drought cycles, continued desertification in the Sahel and a rapid population growth have conspired to retard meaningful economic development.

It’s weird how things never change. We have heard this story countless times in many an African country. President Tandja belongs to the crazy bunch running the Continent who see themselves as irreplaceable demiurges entitled to rule for life. What amount of hubris would make a scarcely educated 71 year old man think that there is no one else in a country of 15 million that can fill his shoes? And given the dismal state of Niger’s economy it can’t be that hard to outdoor Mr. Tandja. He should simply go home.