gor-afc match turns tragic

This weekend’s much fabled rivalry football match between Gor Mahia, aka K’Ogelo, and AFC Leopards turned tragic when un-ticketed fans tried to force their way into the stadium – leading to 7 confirmed deaths.

For more on this see the Nation. The Standard also reports that former Harambee Stars goalie Ottoman was “beaten senseless” when he tried to persuade club officials to stop the match.

Gor Mahia won the match 1-0 thanks to an 87th minute penalty.

Witnesses have blamed the incidence on a lack of organization, including the absence of police to control crowds.

william ruto suspended from cabinet

The road to Rule of Law in Kenya is just beginning to take shape. For sure, politicians will continue to flout the constitution but things are no longer the same. Today, as required by law, President Kibaki suspended higher education minister Hon. William Ruto because of the latter’s pending criminal trial over a fraudulent land deal. Section 62 of the Anti-corruption and Economic Crimes Act states: “a public office charged with corruption or economic crime shall be suspended at half pay, with effect from the date of the charge.”

Given the stature of Mr. Ruto as the ethnic chief de facto political leader of the vast Rift Valley Province, this is a big deal.

The next big test for how committed the ruling class in Kenya is committed to the Rule of Law will be when Ocampo and the ICC come calling with arrest warrants later in the year or early next year. Bigwigs in cabinet and close confidants of both the president and his prime minister are expected to be among those indicted.

fixing somalia

The Kenyan foreign minister has some ideas….

Kenya’s foreign minister said Saturday the millions being spent to fight pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia should be spent instead on helping the country become a functioning state.

Adding that

“Piracy is not born at sea. It’s born on land. And if you are able to patrol and protect your coastline, it’s unlikely that pirates will find a way to the high seas to cause the menace,” Wetangula said. “Instead, what are we seeing? 52 warships patroling … the waters of the Indian Ocean, but piracy is still going on.”

I say it is about time we exorcised the ghosts of black hawk down and meaningfully intervened in Somalia. Such an intervention should be realistic enough to allow al-Shabab those who can monopolize violence to control Mogadishu and surrounding areas in the short term before attempts are made to rebuild a functioning Somali state.

h/t Cyn

reality check

Recently I have been reminded over and over again of the fact that in the sixties South Korea, Ghana, Kenya, the Congo etc had roughly similar per capita GDP (I just started reading economic gangsters and have attended two very interesting lectures by Francis Fukuyama). Assertions of this nature are usually accompanied by accounts of what happened post-60s that made South Korea several times richer than its African counterparts in the present day. But an equally important question to ask is how different pre-60s Korea was from the African countries? (Korea’s long history with some form of organized polity, the nature of Japanese colonization, geographic location near the economic giants Japan and the US, relative importance in cold war politics, etc etc).

These are real issues with real consequences. Briefly stated, the differences between say the Congo and Singapore extend beyond those between Lee Kwan Yew and Mobutu Sese Seko. Pre-independence history and realities (including culture and forms of socio-economic organization) played a significant role in determining the respective trajectories of the  post-independence states of Asia and Africa.

While I am not a believer in historical institutional determinism, I find the reality of findings such as this hard to ignore. The short of it all is that everything is endogenously determined – institutions, quality of leaders, rates of capital accumulation, savings etc etc.

the tusker index

Update: CrossTalk guy (see below) has pointed out that inflation and what not has since raised these prices. The top-end joints – Intercontinental Hotel and the likes – will charge you around Kshs. 300 for a bottle of Tusker. Most Yuppie joints sell the same at Kshs. 200. The recommended retail price is Kshs. 85-90.

Comparatively, out here in Palo Alto, CA a bottle of Tusker at Rose & Crown will set you back by US $5, roughly Kshs. 400.

This past summer while sipping a cold Tusker at the historic Fairmont The Norfolk Hotel in Nairobi (disclaimer: the only reason I was there was because my best friend from primary school is a manager there. I usually prefer cheaper places on Kimathi street) I couldn’t help but wonder if the East African Breweries or Kenyan consumers for that matter kept a tab of how much the various watering holes charge for the machozi ya simba.

Well, thanks to Bankelele, I came across this blog with the Tusker Index.

Pub Location Tusker Price
Swallow One Kahawa West 75/-
Sabina Joy Moi Avenue 80/-
Jam Rescue Outering Road 80/-
Enzogu Bar South B/C 90/-
Capri 7 Jabavu Road, Hurlingham 90/-
Monique Moi Avenue (Next to Sabina Joy) 100/-
The Nairobi Serena Valley Road 220/-
Safari Bar The Intercontinental, CBD 230/-
The Grand Regency Hotel Central Business District 242/-
The Jockey Pub (Hilton Hotel) Central Business District 250/-
The Exchange Bar (Stanely hotel) Kimathi Street. CBD 250/-

The index, although only covering middle class residential areas and big hotels within the CBD, shows a Kshs. 175 variation in the price of a bottle of Tusker. I’ll make sure to take this into account the next time I want one baada ya kazi.

And here is CrossTalk, a new blog I am reading which, in the words of the author, will “fight stupidity in Kenya and Kenyans”

africa is not a country

The Economist reports on a project hatched to rebrand sub-Saharan Africa. Nobody can dispute the need to revamp the image of the Continent to make it be more than just about warring Congolese, corrupt Nigerians, or starving Ethiopians. That said, I am not too excited about the idea of packaging the entire continent as one brand for the following reasons:

1. This effort creates incentives for free-riding. Reforming is hard and therefore Chad will not reform if it can get away with attracting marginal investments because a reforming Central African Republic, through the neighborhood effect, has given it a better image.

2. It is the same Africa-is-one-country paradigm that denies the better performing states in Africa foreign investment and good press. Giving the whole continent a single brand does not solve this problem. Each African country should own up to its failures and not be given incentives to hide under an African umbrella.

For instance, ONLY South Africa deserves to bask in the glory of having hosted a successful World Cup tournament. Chad, CAR, Niger, Somalia, the DRC, etc,  had nothing to do with it. In the same vein, only Botswana, Kenya, Rwanda, Malawi and other reforming African states should tout their respective successes. It is by highlighting these countries’ competencies, without diluting them with the others’ mediocrity, that the image of the Continent will be improved.

blair commission on african poverty recommends more billions in aid

The Blair Commission set up to find British solutions to African poverty has recommended that the Continent get more billions in aid. There is no doubt that Africa needs all the money it can get, aid cynics’ criticisms notwithstanding. But that money, if it ever comes, should come with new ideas.

Perhaps for a change the money slated for development programs should be channeled as credit to the nascent African middle class. I have previously criticized pro-poor development initiatives for their habit of merely keeping the poor afloat (Think of your average mother of six selling vegetables in a generic African slum). What Africa and its development partners need to do is channel the little development money it has in releasing the talent and aspirations of the middle class to create more jobs. This is not to slight Africa’s poor for lack to talent. It is a mere acknowledgment of the fact that it is the middle class that oftentimes has the education and connections to grow their small start-ups into businesses that create even more jobs.

And in other news, Kenya has struck commercially viable gold. The hunt for oil and gas in the north and north east of the country is still on. One hopes that all the exploration craze will be accompanied by an even greater craze when it comes to investing in Kenya’s human capital.

And yeah, I appreciate the irony in writing about foreign aid and Africa’s vast mineral wealth at the same time.

catch me if you can: of presidents and genocide

Those who conceive of justice as an end in itself must be livid. The last several days have seen one appeasement after another of heads of state who may have or have committed heinous crimes against their people. First there was the Kenyan invitation and failure to arrest suspected genocidaire Omar al-Bashir of Sudan. Then came the leaked UN report accusing Kagame’s men of committing crimes against humanity, and possibly genocide, in eastern Congo that did not stop regional presidents from attending the increasingly autocratic Kagame’s inauguration after his sham reelection. The damning report even forced the UN Secretary General to fly to Kigali in order to reassure Mr. Kagame and express his regret over the leaking of the report (I wonder if Mr. Kagame reminded Mr. Ki-moon about his peacekeepers’ abysmal failure to protect civilians from sexual violence in eastern Congo).

While appreciating the complexity of the respective cases (which have serious implications for regional security and stability), the recent events related to Messrs Bashir and Kagame may serve to  create a dangerous precedent. The whole point of the ICC was to make heads of state and other people in power think twice before going Pol Pot on their people. This objective will not be served if leaders realize that not even genocide can get in the way of regional and global geopolitical considerations.

In other news, as usual, Texas in Africa has interesting posts on the Congo. Check them out.

more from Siaya: Siaya District Hospital is a disgrace

If anyone knows anyone important in the ministry of health and medical services please let them know that the x-ray division at the Siaya district hospital is not even trying – especially the bespectacled guy who apparently recently went on a trip overseas (I know this because he spent like two hours total chatting with random visitors about it). While visiting the hospital I saw what patients at the hospital have to go through on a daily basis. There was the woman who had come in for two days straight to get a dental x-ray. The previous day the x-ray guy sent her home because he had to leave after a three hour lunch break. The next morning when she returned she was made to wait for more than two hours because the said guy had to help out a nurse’s pregnant friend who wanted to have an ultra sound done. The most annoying bit of it all is that the waiting area is right outside the guy’s office and so we could hear all their conversations. The said guy then took another hour doing some paperwork and chatting with friends who popped in about every fifteen minutes. Je, huu ni ungwana???

I obviously got annoyed by all this and in my naivety dialed the hospital hotline which is listed under the poster with the costs of all the x-rays outside the doctor’s office. The lady on the other side casually told me that they would take care of the delay and backlog with the x-rays and immediately hung up. Nothing was done. And to imagine that these guys live on taxpayers’ money. I have contacted Mr. Anyang’ Nyong’o himself and I am still waiting to hear from him (Mr. Nyong’o is very good with email, the only other time I wrote him he wrote back within a week).

slum politics

The just released results of the 2009 population census dethrones Kibera from the dubious status of Africa’s largest slum. The figures are much lower than most analysts believe. Only 170,070 people live in the slum. This compared to the oftentimes cited figure of close to a million. The total population of the immediate Nairobi area is 3.1 million.The Nation adds:

“Erasing the Kibera lie from history will need one enormous eraser. The lie has been fed to all, from poor residents of the slum who have since grown accustomed to flashing camera lights from tourists taking shots of “the biggest slum in Africa,” to schoolchildren who cram the lie everyday in geography classes.”

More interestingly…

“According to a UN report, over 90 per cent of Kibera residents pay an estimated Sh4.5 billion every year to the real owners of Kibera. This makes the Kibera a sociological paradox-a slum to the poor, a gold mine to the rich.”

And it is not just slum lords who are benefiting from Kibera’s title of biggest slum in Africa. Aid workers Easterly where are you? are also having a field day:

“there are between 6,000 and 15,000 community-based organisations working in Kibera. That is one charitable organisation for every 15 residents of Kibera. Throw in an estimated 2,000 governmental organisations, and you get a rough idea exactly how the billions of shillings pumped into “the biggest slum in the world” are spent.”

food riots in mozambique

The BBC reports that at least 10 people have died following food riots in a number of urban centres in Mozambique. The Southern African nation has witnessed a 20% increase in the price of bread in the last several days which precipitated the riots. Russia’s ban on wheat exports after fires burned a significant proportion of its crop has caused a global hike in wheat prices leading to a corresponding increase in bread prices. Most African countries (including Kenya where the price of wheat has appreciated quite a bit) will continue to see increases in prices of basic commodities such as bread and baking flour due to their heavy dependence on wheat imports.

Food insecurity, fueled primarily by distortionist policies, continues to be a major challenge to many African states. The model adopted by Malawi – which is fast turning into a regional breadbasket – is taking slower than it ought to to spread within the region, especially in light of the current population growth trends (Kenya, for instance, is growing by 1 million souls a year).

Drinking their savings and lives away

Rural (western) Kenya has a drinking problem. I base this conclusion on three weeks of traveling in and around Siaya. From Bondo to Ugunja, Siaya town to Rabar trading centre, men start drinking from as early as ten in the morning. They call it “kustuwa kichwa” (loosely translates to jumpstarting the mind). East African Breweries Limited’s slogan of “baada ya kazi” (after work) has been transformed into “badala ya kazi” (instead of work). I sort of experienced the reality of rural Kenya’s alcoholism two weeks ago when, after a road accident, I was forced to spend hours each day at a local garage. The panel beater was always drunk when I showed up at 10.00 AM to monitor what he was doing. The other people in the garage – mechanics, painters, electricians and jobless hangers-on – were no exception. Even the garage owner would come in, read the paper then order a 500 ML bottle of coke which he drank laced with spirits packaged in small sachets. Most of the mechanics could not afford the nicely packaged stuff and so opted for the local brews made in the surrounding villages of Siaya. The one day our panel beater did not drink – he was late on schedule and so that morning we refused to allow him to go on his usual “tea break” – he could barely function after 2 PM. His hands shook and he got really cranky. We had to stop work at 4 PM and resume the next day.

If you ask me I think alcoholism is a serious problem in rural Kenya with significant implications for economic and social development. From conversations with some of the men I estimated that they spent about 20% of their meagre daily income on alcohol. Drinking not only lowers their productivity but is also a serious impediment to their economic betterment. Asked about school fees, among other more responsible expenses, most of the men laughed and added that their wives took care of that. Quite a number of the men had a second or third wife and/or other “mipango ya kando” (mistresses).

The Kenyan government has outlawed the production and sale of local/tradition brews without much success. In places where the government can access – in and around towns – the brewers and their patrons have simply gone underground (someone in the internal ministry should read a bit on the prohibition era in the US) while in the more rural areas the drinking dens don’t even pretend to hide from the law. The newfound government concern with the informal brewing industry stems from recent cases of death and blindness in the capital’s slums resulting from the consumption of alcohol laced with other poisonous hydrocarbons, including preservatives and industrial alcohol.

I am not particularly big on regulation but this is an area in which more government regulation could do more good than harm. Totally banning the substance is a bad idea, no doubt about that. The government should instead require that all drinking be done in designated places and then regulate the hours of operation of these places. In addition, encouraging the brewers to come out in the open will widen the tax base.

But laws alone will not alter people’s drinking habits. It’s high time social institutions such as churches and local community organizations took up the challenge of promoting safer and less harmful drinking habits.

jkia has free internet!

The last time I had free wireless at an airport was in Hartford, Connecticut. I am therefore absolutely delighted to be able to blog as I wait for my flight to London tonight. I am not looking forward to the long hours in pressurized steel tubes – as one of my pals calls them – and the long layover in the infamous Heathrow. Although there is no chance of missing my connecting flight to San Francisco, I am bracing myself for the possibility of not having my luggage when I arrive there.

Already missing home. It has been a fun one month, most of which I spent in rural Kenya. Being in Nairobi has been fun too. I am glad I got to be here for the referendum, the promulgation of the new constitution and the release of the 2009 national census results. Kenya is a lot of things, but lately it has been trying tooth and nail to put its best foot forward, the al-Bashir fiasco notwithstanding (I am one of those optimists who are hoping that Kenya was playing smart diplomacy by allowing the genocidaire president to come here in exchange of his honoring the January 9th secession referendum for Southern Sudan).

back in business…

Dear readers, sorry for the long silence. I blame it on the super-slow internet connectivity offered by Safaricom in western Kenyan. Back here in Nairobi things are a bit more normal. Over the next few days I shall post a series of blogs that I wrote but never published for one reason or another.

As promised, here is the comparison between Siaya and Bondo.

Siaya is the older town, and has been district headquarters in the wider Alego and Ugenya areas for quite some time. Bondo on the other hand is a “younger” town (I use ‘young’ here loosely, I don’t quite know when it was founded) and only became district headquarters due to the influence of the Odinga family which calls it its home town. A son of the older Odinga, Raila Odinga, is Kenya’s Prime Minister.

The contrast between the two towns is a lesson in African/Kenyan political economy of development. Siaya, lacking a big man in the capital (Aringo was forever in the opposition and Yinda and Weya are total non-starters) has lagged behind Bondo in many respects. Bondo has a teachers’ training college that has recently been made into  a university college. It has a nice tarmac road linking it to Kisumu, the provincial capital. Right now the roads within Bondo are being done. The road linking Bondo and Siaya is also being done. But within Siaya nothing is happening as far as the roads are concerned, despite the sizable motorcycle and matatu traffic. The road linking Siaya and Kisumu is full of pot holes. The lesson here is that it matters to have someone high up in Nairobi.

The similarities, to me at least, are more interesting. Both towns are filled with small scale shops selling the same stuff – small dukas and “supermarkets”, bicycle and motorcycle repair shops, hardware stores, mobile airtime shops etc. Diversification has not taken root in either town. Even the good roads do not appear to have helped Bondo in this respect. There is also a serious shortage of green vegetables in both. I am told the shortages in kales in particular last between August and March (Kenyan entrepreneurs, are you reading?). I asked if there is a close place nearby where one can source vegetables but was told that the best way to go about it is to “import” the stuff all the way from Nairobi.

My two-day focus on this vegetable thing has taught me that the problem appears to be the fact that all the vegetable farming in this area is rain-fed and are therefore highly seasonal. No one has so far bothered to go large-scale and use some irrigation. Digging a borehole or pumping water from a nearby stream is not that hard. The cost of digging a borehole in the village is no more than $ 800. It is not the cost that is prohibitive, it is collective action that remains elusive – even in this ethnically homogenous part of Kenya.

Just as an aside, my experiences in Siaya so far have made me come to the conclusion that poverty and underdevelopment are, to a large extent, a state of mind. I have mingled with a few local people from Nairobi’s upper middle class and even they seem to traffic in the notion that it is the duty of government and God to run their lives.

provisional kenyan referendum results

Provisional results indicate that 67% of Kenyans voted in favor of the proposed draft constitution. In all provinces but the Rift Valley and Eastern, Kenyans voted overwhelmingly in favor of the document. Rift Valley saw the stiffest opposition to the new constitution, recording a 62% NO vote. This was however expected since the regional political supremos, William Ruto and former president Moi, had vigorously campaigned against the document. In Eastern Province vice president Kalonzo Musyoka was left exposed after a strong showing by the NO side in his backyard. The vice president campaigned for the document but faced insurgent local politicians who appear to have proved that Mr. Musyoka does not have as much influence in the region as he would have us believe. Given Kenya’s highly regionalized national politics, the poor showing by Mr. Musyoka in his own backyard will have interesting implications for the Kibaki succession politics.

Of interest later today will be the breakdown of how individual MPs fared in influencing the vote in their own constituencies. Sadly, outside of Nairobi and other major urban centres most voters did not vote for the new constitution on its merits but followed the advice of their representatives, or their opponents. The most vivid example of this was in North Eastern province where quite a few number of voters turned up expecting to vote in a general election. It might be time the government issued free radio sets to families in the arid north of the country.

In other news, Kenyans appear to have learned their lesson in 2007 about election-related violence. Throughout the last few days the tv screens have been filled with programs and advertisements reminding people to keep the peace.