Category Archives: Kenya

parliamentary results

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The parliamentary results so far in are overwhelmingly in favor of ODM. PNU has had a very poor show for a president’s party – a further sign of all the weaknesses I kept pointing out (in other fora) during the campaigns. PNU candidates lost to DP, Safina, Ford People, among other parties in central Kenya. ODM has a an almost clean sweep in Nyanza and put up a strong show in Rift Valley and Western – where many of Kibaki’s cabinate ministers lost. Coast is also leaning towards ODM.

This is a worrying phenomenon for those who care about checks and balances. There will definitely be a big void in parliamentary affairs due to the lack of a credible opposition party (if ODM wins, that is). My hope is that ODM-K gets enough votes to be able to form a strong parliamentary opposition party to keep ODM in check.

KANU seems dead and buried. And with PNU having split into a thousand parties it is unlikely that they will remain as a coalition if they find themselves in the opposition by the end of tomorrow.

Kibaki is still showing strongly in the presidential race. But this is not backed by the parliamentary results which are mostly in favor of ODM. Things look bad for the Kibaki tena team and for the spirit of democracy in the country.

All governments, whether good or bad, need a strong opposition to keep them honest and dilligent at their duty to provide public goods to all Kenyans.

kibaki narrows Raila lead

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Kibaki has narrowed Raila’s lead to just 8 percentage points. Raila’s lead has gone down to about 500,000 votes. There are still more results expected to come in from the Rift Valley and other parts of Nyanza that had irregularities. Central Kenya came out almost 100% for Kibaki.

It is not yet over. Not until all the results come in. This election, as was predicted, is going to be a close one despite ODM’s visible confidence in the likes of Ruto and Balala.

signs of things to come

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I am watching KBC and the mood seems to be indicative of the imminent announcement of a Raila victory. Kibaki is trailing the ODM candidate by almost a million votes. KBC, the state channel has shown victory speeches by Ruto, Balala and Nyong’o. Uhuru also appeared for a brief moment telling Kenyans to be patient and wait for the ECK to announce the results.

The state channel seems to have sensed the change and therefore is no longer sounding like a pro-government mouth piece that we have come to expect of it since independence. This sounds more like what happened after the 2002 elections.

Ruto made a speech about the winds of change that are sweeping through the country. Balala and Nyong’o talked about celebrations in readiness for the work ahead next year. Visibly tired and worn out Uhuru sounded disraught in the wake of the utter collapse of the Kibaki tena campaign.

The president’s campaign team had this election to lose and they seem to have done so in style. Raila is leading by a Nyanza-esque margin in Rift Valley, a known Kanu heartland. The opposition leader is also leading in Western, Coast, Nyanza and by a slight margin in North Eastern.

Kibaki is leading in Central and Nairobi (slight margin). While Musyoka has a commanding lead in his Eastern province backyard.

Confirmation has arrived that Ndile has lost his seat. He will be missed a lot.

kenya’s election updates

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The national presidential results are finally trickling in. ECK has also started regular updates with the parliamentary and presidential tallies. Interesting results thus far. Kibaki is still trailing Raila by over half a million votes. KBC has started acting like the GoP is going to lose. But there are still millions of uncounted votes.  It’s definitely going to be a close election between Kibaki and Raila, going by the provinvial numbers.

Parliamentary results show that ODM will have a majority in Parliament. PNU candidates have lost to either ODM or one of the many sub-PNU parties. ODM-K has had a decent showing in Eastern Province with most of Ukambani voting for ODM-K candidates.

So far the VP and 18 ministers have lost their seats. These are: Musikari Kombo, Newton Kulundu, Kipruto Kirwa, Moses Akaranga, Simeon Nyachae, Njenga Karume, Raphael Tuju, David Mwiraria, Mohamud Abdi Mohammed, Morris Dzoro, Suleiman Shakombo, Mutahi Kagwe, Paul Sang, Kivutha Kibwana, Mutua Katuku,  Joseph Munyao and Kalembe Ndile.

These big upsets have also reflected on the presidential vote with ODM beating PNU in areas that were deemed to be PNU strongholds – Kombo and Nyachae being prime examples.

more to come soon…

big losers in Kenya’s elections

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Results streaming into various Kenyan news stations show that the main opposition leader Hon. Odinga is leading the incumbent President Kibaki by hundreds of thousands of votes. But these results are just preliminary since many poll centres have not finished the tallying exercise. As it stands Hon. Odinga has big leads in Western, Nyanza, Rift Valley and Coast provinces, while President Kibaki leads in Central and Nairobi provinces. The third candidate, Hon. Musyoka is leading in his native Eastern province.

The big losers in this election include the vice president and several cabinet ministers who have lost their parliamentary seats. The vice president Hon. Awori lost his seat to Dr. Otuoma, an ODM candidate. Fork Kenya chairman Hon. Kombo has also lost his seat to an ODM candidate. Other big losers include Messrs Raphael Tuju, Mutahi Kagwe, Njenga Karume, Nicholas Biwott, Gideon Moi, Paul Sang, Kabogo, Moses Wetangula, Moses Akaranga, Billow Kerrow, Mukhisa Kituyi, among others.

Meanwhile veteran Ugenya politician James Orengo is set to return to parliament after winning the Ugenya seat on an ODM ticket. News just in indicate that Raila Odinga has recaptured his Lang’ata seat. There were worries that the ODM presidential candidate might lose this seat and hence lose the chance to be president even if he won the presidential race due to constitutional provisions that demand that the president must be a seating MP.

There are no results yet out of North Eastern province. The ECK has not said anything about this anomaly.

kenya votes

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So today is the day Kenyans have been anticipating for the last several months. Beginning at 6 am. poll stations across the country will be opened so that Kenyans can go and choose their next government.

With campaigns having officially ended, the ball is now in the hands of the voters – many of whom must be glad that the season of noise and abuses is over. It is my hope that there will be a respectable voter turn out so that Kenyans choose the leader that most people prefer to be in the State House. I also hope that neither side will do anything silly that would make the loser not accept the outcome and thus drag the country through a period of uncertainty.

The race is going to be tight. According to the polls, Raila and Kibaki are in a statistical tie for the presidential vote. A high voter turnout could swing it either way. The parliamentary races are also going to be hotly contested. Even Raila is not so sure about his Lang’ata seat. Other doubtables are Mudavadi and a host of other outgoing MPs in the city.

All in all may it all go well so that come the 28th of December all Kenyans can forget about their political differences and come together to work for a better united Kenya.

Kenya’s elections

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With just under four days to go, there is still no clear front-runner in the upcoming general elections in Kenya. According to the latest opinion polls, there is a statistical tie between the incumbent President Kibaki and the veteran opposition politician Raila Odinga.  Many observers have acknowledged that this is going to be a very closely contested election and therefore there is need to keep it absolutely free and fair because whoever wins will not do so with a wide margin – unless we have been fooled all along by the opinion polls, a fact that is not entirely implausible since statisticians have been known to get it wrong some times.

Statistics and opinion polls aside, the whole world is watching; which gives Kenya an opportunity to demonstrate that true democracy can flourish on the continent of Africa. The onus is on the electoral commission of Kenya to ensure, as they have guaranteed, that there are no irregularities in the December 27th poll. Only then will the losers of the election concede defeat respectfully and allow the country to move forward with whoever gets elected as president.

Even though the two major parties do not differ much in terms of their ideals and the contents of their manifestos, I think electioneering is still an invaluable process because it gives a sense of empowerment to the majority of voters since it makes them engage their leaders and feel as part of one country, even if just for the brief period of campaigns and emotionally charged political rallies as we have witnessed in the last three months.

May Kenya emerge on the 28th of December a united and peaceful nation state ready to move forward with a sound development agenda.

piracy off the somali coast

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If you thought piracy belonged to the 19th century, think again. This year alone there have been at least 26 attacks by pirates off the coast of Somalia. The latest incident involves a Japanese ship (the Golden Nori) that had 23 crew and tens of thousands of tons of inflammable benzene.

The pirates are demanding a $ 1 million ransom or else they will kill the crew of the ship.The situation has been further complicated by the fact that according to a 1992 UN resolution establishing an arms embargo, foreign troops are not allowed to enter Somali waters.The UN regulations have made it difficult for the US navy and Kenyan authorities to fully police this region of the Indian ocean and end the piracy.

Keeping Somalia’s lawlessness within its borders has always been tricky. In the past the many fundamentalist thugs running around in the country mainly dealt in illegal arms and smuggled goods across the region but lately they seem have found a new lucrative business – piracy and kidnapping of foreigners for ransom.

As negotiations go on for the release of the hostages it has become apparent that the Somali problem cannot be ignored for long if peace and stability is to be achieved in the horn of Africa. And with the US keen to win the global assault on terror, the last thing it needs is a failed stage occupied by these extremist thugs.

kenya turns 44

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At midnight on December 12th 1963, the Union Jack was lowered and the Kenyan flag raised high to mark the birth of one of the more successful countries on the African continent. I say successful because as most of Africa went up in flames due to civil wars, coups and counter coups, Kenya enjoyed relative peace and national cohesion under the strong handed but, in retrospect, effective leadership of its first two presidents; Jomo Kenyatta and Daniel arap Moi. Although the two men were quasi-dictators, they presided over periods of development and in many ways helped Kenyans of all ethnicities realize their nationhood.  

After the establishment of liberal democratic rule in 2002, Kenya has enjoyed a resurgence of economic growth and expansion of freedoms. The country has a vibrant free press and a strong opposition (which incidentally is leading in opinion polls ahead of general elections in less than three weeks).

Very many problems still plague the country, though. Corruption is still a blot on the country’s record and the recent damaging report on police brutality and extra-judicial killings of suspected Mungiki (thuggish sect) members paint a bad picture of the current government.  The country’s high poverty levels, joblessness and lack of adequate housing also continue to pose challenges to the central government.

The many problems aside, Kenyans still have a reason to celebrate their independence: Their country has remained an island of peace and stability in contrast to its war torn neighbors like Somalia and Sudan. Kenya has also experienced a significantly higher degree of democratic consolidation, economic development and transparent governance than its neighbors in the region and beyond.

Happy Independence Day Kenyans!!