It almost 36 hours after the official closing of polling stations across the country but Kenyans still do not know who will be their next president for the next 5 years. As things start the presidential race is still up in the air with Raila leading president Kibaki with just over two hundred thousand votes. Most of the votes in Central province and Rift Valley have been counted. The deciding votes, it seems, will come from Coast, Nairobi and the rest of Nyanza (mostly Luo Nyanza) that have not been counted yet.
The ECK is really underperforming right now. Its been 36 hours! How hard can it be to call Nairobi and inform the commissioners the outcome of results. It is also a shame that most of the delay is happening right under the commission’s nose in Nairobi. There have been allegations of rigging in various constituencies in Nairobi, by both PNU and ODM candidates.
Mars Group gives Raila a lead of 3.8 m vs. Kibaki’s 3.4. Kalonzo is finally having a decent showing with about 8% of the national vote. This is still too close to call. It’s all wait and see. It’s about 6 am. in Kenya and everyone back there must be quite on edge right now after having waited for so long for the final results. I can only imagine what Kibaki and Raila and their families, friends and respective supporters are going through right now.
The parliamentary results so far in are overwhelmingly in favor of ODM. PNU has had a very poor show for a president’s party – a further sign of all the weaknesses I kept pointing out (in other fora) during the campaigns. PNU candidates lost to DP, Safina, Ford People, among other parties in central Kenya. ODM has a an almost clean sweep in Nyanza and put up a strong show in Rift Valley and Western – where many of Kibaki’s cabinate ministers lost. Coast is also leaning towards ODM.
This is a worrying phenomenon for those who care about checks and balances. There will definitely be a big void in parliamentary affairs due to the lack of a credible opposition party (if ODM wins, that is). My hope is that ODM-K gets enough votes to be able to form a strong parliamentary opposition party to keep ODM in check.
KANU seems dead and buried. And with PNU having split into a thousand parties it is unlikely that they will remain as a coalition if they find themselves in the opposition by the end of tomorrow.
Kibaki is still showing strongly in the presidential race. But this is not backed by the parliamentary results which are mostly in favor of ODM. Things look bad for the Kibaki tena team and for the spirit of democracy in the country.
All governments, whether good or bad, need a strong opposition to keep them honest and dilligent at their duty to provide public goods to all Kenyans.
Kibaki has narrowed Raila’s lead to just 8 percentage points. Raila’s lead has gone down to about 500,000 votes. There are still more results expected to come in from the Rift Valley and other parts of Nyanza that had irregularities. Central Kenya came out almost 100% for Kibaki.
It is not yet over. Not until all the results come in. This election, as was predicted, is going to be a close one despite ODM’s visible confidence in the likes of Ruto and Balala.
I am watching KBC and the mood seems to be indicative of the imminent announcement of a Raila victory. Kibaki is trailing the ODM candidate by almost a million votes. KBC, the state channel has shown victory speeches by Ruto, Balala and Nyong’o. Uhuru also appeared for a brief moment telling Kenyans to be patient and wait for the ECK to announce the results.
The state channel seems to have sensed the change and therefore is no longer sounding like a pro-government mouth piece that we have come to expect of it since independence. This sounds more like what happened after the 2002 elections.
Ruto made a speech about the winds of change that are sweeping through the country. Balala and Nyong’o talked about celebrations in readiness for the work ahead next year. Visibly tired and worn out Uhuru sounded disraught in the wake of the utter collapse of the Kibaki tena campaign.
The president’s campaign team had this election to lose and they seem to have done so in style. Raila is leading by a Nyanza-esque margin in Rift Valley, a known Kanu heartland. The opposition leader is also leading in Western, Coast, Nyanza and by a slight margin in North Eastern.
Kibaki is leading in Central and Nairobi (slight margin). While Musyoka has a commanding lead in his Eastern province backyard.
Confirmation has arrived that Ndile has lost his seat. He will be missed a lot.
The national presidential results are finally trickling in. ECK has also started regular updates with the parliamentary and presidential tallies. Interesting results thus far. Kibaki is still trailing Raila by over half a million votes. KBC has started acting like the GoP is going to lose. But there are still millions of uncounted votes. It’s definitely going to be a close election between Kibaki and Raila, going by the provinvial numbers.
Parliamentary results show that ODM will have a majority in Parliament. PNU candidates have lost to either ODM or one of the many sub-PNU parties. ODM-K has had a decent showing in Eastern Province with most of Ukambani voting for ODM-K candidates.
So far the VP and 18 ministers have lost their seats. These are: Musikari Kombo, Newton Kulundu, Kipruto Kirwa, Moses Akaranga, Simeon Nyachae, Njenga Karume, Raphael Tuju, David Mwiraria, Mohamud Abdi Mohammed, Morris Dzoro, Suleiman Shakombo, Mutahi Kagwe, Paul Sang, Kivutha Kibwana, Mutua Katuku, Joseph Munyao and Kalembe Ndile.
These big upsets have also reflected on the presidential vote with ODM beating PNU in areas that were deemed to be PNU strongholds – Kombo and Nyachae being prime examples.
Results streaming into various Kenyan news stations show that the main opposition leader Hon. Odinga is leading the incumbent President Kibaki by hundreds of thousands of votes. But these results are just preliminary since many poll centres have not finished the tallying exercise. As it stands Hon. Odinga has big leads in Western, Nyanza, Rift Valley and Coast provinces, while President Kibaki leads in Central and Nairobi provinces. The third candidate, Hon. Musyoka is leading in his native Eastern province.
The big losers in this election include the vice president and several cabinet ministers who have lost their parliamentary seats. The vice president Hon. Awori lost his seat to Dr. Otuoma, an ODM candidate. Fork Kenya chairman Hon. Kombo has also lost his seat to an ODM candidate. Other big losers include Messrs Raphael Tuju, Mutahi Kagwe, Njenga Karume, Nicholas Biwott, Gideon Moi, Paul Sang, Kabogo, Moses Wetangula, Moses Akaranga, Billow Kerrow, Mukhisa Kituyi, among others.
Meanwhile veteran Ugenya politician James Orengo is set to return to parliament after winning the Ugenya seat on an ODM ticket. News just in indicate that Raila Odinga has recaptured his Lang’ata seat. There were worries that the ODM presidential candidate might lose this seat and hence lose the chance to be president even if he won the presidential race due to constitutional provisions that demand that the president must be a seating MP.
There are no results yet out of North Eastern province. The ECK has not said anything about this anomaly.