Tag Archives: PNU

kenyan crisis deal expected next week

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Former UN boss Kofi Annan has hinted to the possibility of a political compromise between ODM and PNU by as early as next week. Speaking to the AP Annan said that the two parties have shown positive steps towards finding a political solution to the chaos that have hit the once peaceful East African state. Meanwhile, ODM luminary William Ruto was quoted by the same AP as having said that both parties had agreed to form a unity government. Annan was however reluctant to admit this saying that such statements should not be made prematurely before the actual deal is sealed.

Kenya needs a solution to its crisis fast. The economy is bleeding – jobs are being lost, production capacity has been diminished and investor confidence is at an all time low. The situation has also adversely affected regional economies of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Southern Sudan and Eastern DRC. Last week the Kenyan central bank admitted that 2008 will see a reduction in the projected 5% growth rate.

A deal between the two parties would be the ideal solution because it is obvious that neither can govern the country effectively on its own. Odinga has support in most of Western Kenya and among Kenyan muslims at the coast while Kibaki’s support base is mostly concentrated in the Central region of Kenya. A power sharing arrangement would thus make both blocks happy and promote the spirit of national reconciliation and strengthening of the idea of a united Kenya.

It is also important that the Annan team sees ahead beyond Raila and Kibaki. The deal should not just be designed to please these two aging men but should also include constitutional amendments to reduce the power of the presidency, decentralise government, make the judiciary, legislature and the electoral commission independent and promote equitable sharing of public resources like land and government-provided public goods.

kenya braces for more protests

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Kenya seems to be headed for more protests after the opposition refused to follow a government directive banning all political protests in the country following last month’s disputed elections.

Just yesterday the opposition in a show of strength forced through the election of Kenneth Marende over the government’s preferred candidate for the position of speaker of the national assembly, the third most powerful office in the land.

In anticipation of possible violence and looting, many shops are expected to remain closed on Wednesday and police have been deployed throughout the country to ensure that peace prevails and possibly to break-up any opposition marches.

Many analysts, activists and lawyers have asked the government to lift the ban it has imposed on the media and against political rallies as these bans are in clear violation of Kenyans’ freedom of speech and assembly.

Any reasonable person, from either side of the political divide, must find it very disturbing that the same people who less than a decade ago were fighting for free press and freedom of assembly are the ones who now issue statements banning rallies and live broadcasts with abandon. Things never really change. Just people.

kenneth Marende elected speaker

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The Kenyan opposition candidate Kenneth Marende has been elected speaker of the National Assembly. This is could be a glimpse of things to come in the country’s tenth parliament where the opposition has a majority over the government. By electing their own candidate for the speaker, the opposition has proven that it has full control of the house and will challenge the government through legal means over the disputed Dec 2007 elections.

The government candidate, long serving former speaker,  Francis Ole Kaparo, lost by four votes. The total tally of the votes was 105 against 101.

beyond the chaos, kenya and its institutions

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Who would have thought back in 2002 that it was under a Kibaki presidency that Kenya would experience violence and chaos of the magnitude being reported in the news? Who would have guessed that Kibaki, the gentleman of Kenyans politics, would be the one being accused (whether justly or not) of rigging elections and trying to unlawfully hang onto power?

As Kenyans deliberate among and within themselves on the way forward, it is important to reflect on the causes of the existing mayhem and establish some truths. At the risk of sounding too simplistic, I am of the opinion that the existing anarchy in Kenya is as a result the lack of strong, impersonal institutions.

The lack of strong institutions handed the country a compromised electoral commission, full of appointees of the same person running for re-election. It was always obvious who the commissioners would side with in the event of a disputed outcome as was seen last Sunday. It therefore came as no surprise that while admitting that there were irregularities and suspicious figures on the tallying sheets, the commission did not order a recount or complete audit but proceeded to declare the president the winner base on the same questionable figures.

The lack of a culture of independent institutionalism has also made the opposition wary to present their case in the Kenyan high court, yet another institution teeming with the president’s appointees. In fact it is this lack of faith in the judiciary that left Kenyans no alternative but to resort to justice by the masses, which has unfortunately been laced with rioting, murder, ethnic confrontations and looting.

As the politicians get ready to have dialogue and possibly come up with a power sharing arrangement, on top of the agenda should be a clear and genuine commitment to the creation of impersonal institutions that will serves Kenyans well. It is of paramount importance that Kenyans develop confidence in the country’s institutions in order to avert situations when citizens take the law into their own hands – as we are witnessing now.

 

It is also important for Kenyans to realize that they cannot afford to take the back seat and let the politicians “institutionalize” tribalism. Kenyans should unite in their opposition to ethnic polarization because the country needs all its citizens in its quest for economic and social development. The just concluded elections have shown that it is quite possible for Kenyans of different ethnicities to come together for a common cause. Wananchi should be proud of this fact and not let the politicians take it away from them.

urgent need to convene the Kenyan parliament

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Kenya remains without a parliament even as violence threatens to shred to pieces this once stable land in East Africa. The president is holed up in State House and is yet to issue a statement on the way forward, besides the chest thumping rhetoric about the ability of the security forces to deal with the post-election violence that has led to more than 300 deaths and displacement of more than 100,000 Kenyans (According to the Kenyan Red Cross).

As things stand, there is no avenue for dialogue between the government and the main opposition party that believes it wont the election but was denied victory by the government through rigging. This situation calls for the immediate swearing in of the new members of parliament in order to provide an arena for debate and dialogue on the way forward for Kenya.

The opposition should strongly consider using parliament to oust the president, if indeed they cannot stand his presidency for another five years. With 45% of the votes in parliament, and with cracks beginning to show within the president’s party, the opposition might be able to garner the more than 50% of votes needed to vote the government out of power in a vote of no confidence.

Parliamentary debate will also create the impression that something is being done about the situation and therefore lower tension in the country. Right now there seems to be an impasse and this is contributing to the rising tension all over the country.

It is very saddening that Kibaki and Raila remain obstinate and hell bent on plunging Kenya into an abyss of violence and barbarism. Kenyans should see these two leaders for who they really are – power hungry men with not much love for their country. Why are they still setting pre-conditions for dialogue when the country is flirting with the possibility of an all out civil war? Why haven’t they issued a joint statement condemning the violence and destruction of property?

As ordinary poor Kenyans die and lose their property, the real culprits – those who stole the election and those that are not willing to compromise for the country’s sake – continue to live near to normal lives without the food and fuel shortages that are beginning to further exacerbate Kenyans’ misery. This madness has to stop.

the anarchy in kenya begins to affect the region

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Over the years, Kenya has emerged as the political and economic Mecca in East and Central Africa. It is therefore not surprising that the region is already feeling the effect of the current political crisis that has almost brought Kenya to its knees. Most of the countries in the region import goods from and/or through Kenya.

Reports from Uganda already indicate a rise in fuel prices and there is fear that more shortages and price hikes are to follow. Uganda imports nearly all of its fuel through Kenya. Kenya is also the region’s biggest exporter of manufactured goods. The raging violence has shut down businesses and factories and there are virtually no vehicles on the major highways. With the Kenyan economy in limbo, the region’s economic stability remains severely threatened.

It all seems unreal that Kenyans, who for decades have hosted refugees from all its neighbors, are now fleeing their own country to seek refuge in places like Uganda and Tanzania. Only time will tell how the region will respond to the increasingly alarming refugee situation. About 80,000 Kenyans have already been displaced from their homes. If the situation is not arrested soon, instability in Kenya will most likely spread to other countries in the region – most likely Eastern Uganda and Northern Tanzania.

Kenya’s decent to chaos will also be a big blow to the prospects for democracy on the continent of Africa. Before the post-election eruption of violence, Kenya had been seen by many African countries as a model of democracy and stability. Kenya also played a big role in bringing peace to troubled areas like Southern Sudan and Somalia. It is therefore in the region’s interest that Kenya remains stable and peaceful.

As a Kenyan editorial peace put it today, “It is unbelievable foolishness for Kenyans to destroy their economy, their homes and their entire way of life in the name of politics.” Peace and stability should be put before everything else not just for Kenyans’ sake but for the sake of the entire region as well.

more violence expected at tomorrow’s odm rally in Kenya

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The main opposition party in Kenya, ODM, has announced that it will go ahead with its scheduled protest rally tomorrow in Nairobi in defiance of a government ban on all political rallies. Kenya has in the last three days witnessed the worst kind of violence in its 44-year history due to disputed results of the just concluded presidential election.

The government insists that the incumbent won while the main opposition party believes that they were unjustly denied victory through rigging. Observers, both local and international, and the electoral commission of Kenya have said that there were irregularities in the tallying of results and that this might have influenced the outcome of the polls.

Opposition leader Raila Odinga said on Wednesday that his party will not relent in its quest to have Kibaki resign. He also set this as a pre-condition for any level of dialogue between him and the president.

And to complicate matters further, the head of the electoral commission said Wednesday that he doesn’t know who won last Thursday election and that he announced the results while under duress from the government.

As the politicians remain stubborn and unwilling to resolve the impasse, ordinary Kenyans are the ones bearing the brunt of the stalemate. The death toll this far is believed to be over 300 and property worth millions of shillings destroyed. Shops remain closed and those that have opened ran out of supplies as people rushed in to stock up.

Thrusday’s opposition rally will be a real test for both sides of the political divide and may determine the course of events in this formerly peaceful and stable country in East Africa.

Many concerned Africans have expressed shock and disappointment as one of the rare working models of democracy and economic development on the continent goes up in flames infront of their eyes. The African Union president John Kofuor of Ghana is scheduled to jet into the country on Thursday to try and mediate between the president and his opposition rival.

Death toll continues to rise in church arson incident

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I just read a most shocking story about over 50 Kenyans (mostly innocent women and children) having died after the church they had sought refuge in was burnt by an angry mob protesting against the government over their country’s flawed elections. This story is shocking not just because of the tragic loss of lives but also because of the heavily loaded symbolism that it had – the burning of a church.

Kenyans are a very religious lot and the fact that people are angry enough to burn churches should set off alarming bells everywhere. Do Kenyans really want to take this road? Is it really worth it? When is it going to stop after we start burning each other up in places of worship and are divided on ethnic lines?

There is an urgent need for the Kenyan leadership to slow down events. Things have been happening quite fast since the elections on the 27th of Dec and nobody seems to be in control anymore. The government spokesman was crazy enough the other day to say that the violence was isolated…….. Kisumu, Eldoret, Nairobi, Nakuru and Mombasa are not isolated incidents, Mr. Mutua. The only person you are fooling is yourself.

Hurried swearing in fishy

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Less than an hour after he was declared the winner of this year’s general election, President Mwai Kibaki was hurriedly sworn in at State House Nairobi. The Chief Justice and the Attorney General were present to conduct the ceremony.

The hurried manner in which the swearing in was done makes the whole process suspicious. The president ought to have taken time to calm down tensions and engage the opposition in dialogue and then honor Kenyans for re-electing him by granting them a proper state ceremony.

The sneak swearing in therefore only serves to confirm the president’s and his handlers’ fear that they do not have the mandate to govern. This is indeed a sad day for Kenya. It is yet again a case of an African country failing to hold free and fair elections. The stories of “tribal clashes” in Kenya being aired by the CNNs and Reuters of this world are just a reminder of how stuck in the past Africa still is. This is a big blow to Africa’s self esteem – when open rigging is witnessed and condoned in one its most fledgling democracies.

I hope Kenyans will not use violent means to express their discontent. I hope that the president will move quickly to reconcile the country. I hope that the opposition will act responsibly and desist from making any inflammatory remarks. I hope sanity will prevail.

tension remains high in kenya

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There is high tension in Kenya following the delay in the announcement of the winner of the country’s just concluded general election. The electoral commission had earlier on canceled the tallying of results after irregularities were found in a number of constituencies.  The opposition leader has urged the president to concede in light of the fact that nearly 20 of his cabinet ministers were voted out and the opposition’s win of over half of the seats in parliament.

The president’s main challenger claimed victory and gave a rather alarming warning that Kenya could degenerate into the Ivory Coast, a country dubbed as “West Africa’s Kenya” but that was plunged into civil war after disputed elections.  It is indeed a very crucial moment in Kenya’s history. This far this country has been one of the most stable on the continent and was seen by many as a model of democracy and progressive governance.

It is also unfortunate that the president has remained quiet over the last three days even as chaos were being reported in various parts of the country. This is a sad moment in Kenya’s history, and yet another setback in the continent’s match towards transparent, liberal democratic governance.

a sad ending to a flawless process

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Although this year’s general elections Kenya were billed as the closest in the country’s history, many observers noted that the voting was largely conducted in a free and fair manner. Nearly all polling stations across the country opened on time and had voting go on uninterrupted by violence or intimidation as was the fear of some. Both observers and contestants acknowledged that the elections qualified to be termed as free and fair.

But trouble started when towards the end fishy results started being announced at the election HQs in Nairobi. Most of the anomalies were reported in areas that are known to be pro the incumbent. This fact was aptly demonstrated by the fact that in one constituency in the president’s province, the number of votes cast exceeded the number of registered voters. It therefore came as no surprise that when the same areas started showing results with voter turn outs close to 100% the opposition party got up in arms and started to demand for an explanation as to what was going on.

As this was happening, news reached various parts of the country which inevitably resulted in idle youths and those concerned over the evident rigging taking to the streets in protest. As happens with most political demonstrations against the government in Kenya, police were sent in to disperse the crowds and the resulting chaos led to further violence, confusion and looting of property.

In the end the electoral commission suspended all tallying of votes for the night until tomorrow morning when they will review the results from all 210 constituencies.

It is quite frustrating that after the peaceful campaigning and the very high voter turn out the elections should end on such a sour note. The president’s men should know better than to rig elections, especially this one since it was known to be very close. Now because of Maragwa and other areas the opposition will not accept the outcome if indeed it emerges that the president won. And to some extent their discontent will be justified.

A government victory in this election would not have been eyed with this much suspicion had it not engaged in open rigging as has been observed. In its attempts to assure itself a safe victory, the government has only managed to stoke the fires of suspicion across the nation. This fact has been further exacerbated by the fact that the president’s party won just about a third of the parliamentary seats won by the main opposition party. So even if the government gets away with the irregularities, it is still going to find a hard time passing legislation in parliament because of its lack of a majority.

As Kenya holds its breath one can only hope that the electoral commission will try and be as fair as possible. It is no secret that the integrity of the outcome of this year’s election has already been soiled. What we now hope for is that the ECK will do a great job in damage control so that the final results most accurately approximate the wishes of the Kenyan people.

rioters demand for results

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News by Nation confirms that rioting has begun in certain parts of the country as voters continue to demand for release of the results of the presidential vote in the just concluded general elections. Official ECK numbers from 159 constituencies show Raila leading with 3.7 vs Kibaki’s 3.4. This still remains a very close race and could go either way depending on the results coming in from the remaining constituencies.

The remaining areas are spread across the country in both ODM and PNU dominated areas. Meru district, parts of coast, Nyanza and Rift valley have not yet sent results and Kivuitu has expressed his dissatisfaction with the situation.

ODM has over 90 confirmed parliamentary seats. PNU has just over 30. Very worrying trend for the Kibaki campaign team since even if they win they are going to have a really hard time in parliament. ODM on the other hand seems to be itching to celebrate what they consider as an historic victory against an incumbent.

The ECK commissioners are having a meeting to chart the way forward. Kivuitu threatened to exclude the areas that had refused to send results by the time he addressed the press conference at about 11.30 am EAT.

I hope this ends well and that the rioting remains isolated in rural towns and does not spread to more populous towns. This was a clean election and the conclusion ought to be just as clean.

tension high in nairobi as eck delays announcement of results

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I just called home and my contacts tell me that there is increasing tension in the capital as the ECK continues to delay the announcement of presidential results. This is most acute in Eastlands where many youth have already started taking to the streets to protest what they see as an attempt by the government to rig the polls, especially the numbers coming out of PNU strongholds.

These are all unconfirmed rumors though. The real culprit is the ECK. They have done a great job so far and it is a shame that they are delaying in the tallying of results.

This is a worrying development. The last thing Kenya needs is rioting in the streets of the capital at a time when there is high tension among the members of both PNU and ODM. KBC is saying that Raila Odinga and his running mate Mudavadi are about to make press statements.

Unconfirmed rumors: Moi in hospital? and I also hear that Kibaki was down with fatigue? Any confirmation of this?

More to come soon……

anxiety as kenya awaits election results

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It almost 36 hours after the official closing of polling stations across the country but Kenyans still do not know who will be their next president for the next 5 years. As things start the presidential race is still up in the air with Raila leading president Kibaki with just over two hundred thousand votes. Most of the votes in Central province and Rift Valley have been counted. The deciding votes, it seems, will come from Coast, Nairobi and the rest of Nyanza (mostly Luo Nyanza) that have not been counted yet.

The ECK is really underperforming right now. Its been 36 hours! How hard can it be to call Nairobi and inform the commissioners the outcome of results. It is also a shame that most of the delay is happening right under the commission’s nose in Nairobi. There have been allegations of rigging in various constituencies in Nairobi, by both PNU and ODM  candidates.

Mars Group gives Raila a lead of 3.8 m vs. Kibaki’s 3.4. Kalonzo is finally having a decent showing with about 8% of the national vote. This is still too close to call. It’s all wait and see. It’s about 6 am. in Kenya and everyone back there must be quite on edge right now after having waited for so long for the final results. I can only imagine what Kibaki and Raila and their families, friends and respective supporters are going through right now.

parliamentary results

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The parliamentary results so far in are overwhelmingly in favor of ODM. PNU has had a very poor show for a president’s party – a further sign of all the weaknesses I kept pointing out (in other fora) during the campaigns. PNU candidates lost to DP, Safina, Ford People, among other parties in central Kenya. ODM has a an almost clean sweep in Nyanza and put up a strong show in Rift Valley and Western – where many of Kibaki’s cabinate ministers lost. Coast is also leaning towards ODM.

This is a worrying phenomenon for those who care about checks and balances. There will definitely be a big void in parliamentary affairs due to the lack of a credible opposition party (if ODM wins, that is). My hope is that ODM-K gets enough votes to be able to form a strong parliamentary opposition party to keep ODM in check.

KANU seems dead and buried. And with PNU having split into a thousand parties it is unlikely that they will remain as a coalition if they find themselves in the opposition by the end of tomorrow.

Kibaki is still showing strongly in the presidential race. But this is not backed by the parliamentary results which are mostly in favor of ODM. Things look bad for the Kibaki tena team and for the spirit of democracy in the country.

All governments, whether good or bad, need a strong opposition to keep them honest and dilligent at their duty to provide public goods to all Kenyans.