odm calls off protests, kibaki reiterates his commitment to PM post

The Orange Democratic Movement leader Hon. Raila Odinga on Wednesday called off street protests scheduled for Thursday in an effort to give a conciliatory cue to the Party of National Unity. Hon. Raila said that in order to express their commitment to the talks which appear headed for the doldrums his party had called off mass protests in major cities until further notice. The ODM is in talks with the ruling PNU to try and hammer out a power sharing agreement after an election that many believe was too flawed to determine a winner and which ODM maintains it won.

Over 1500 people have since died in election-related violence since the electoral commission chairman, one Samuel Kivuitu, announced the results amid protests of foul play by the opposition and international observers. Hundreds of thousands remain displaced both within Kenya and in neighbouring countries like Uganda and Tanzania.

Meanwhile, President Mwai Kibaki has reiterated his commitment to the creation of a Prime Minister’s post and two deputy slots in an attempt to accommodate the ODM in a power-sharing arrangement. Kibaki also reminded Kenyans that he is committed to the speedy resolution of the talks in order to give Kenyans a chance to return to normalcy. The president’s statement gave signs that may be the PNU is willing to bend backwards and concede some ground to the ODM with regard to demands for an executive premier with some clout.

Kibaki however remained adamant that the creation of a premier must be done withing the current constitution but promised to deliver comprehensive constitutional amendments in the next one year. ODM wants the premier’s post to be entrenched in the constitution to guarantee it security of tenure and insulate it against possible challenges in court.

Mr. Annan, the leader of the talks between the two feuding parties, met with both Hon. Raila and President Kibaki to try and talk them into agreeing to cede more ground to allow the talks to move forward. The talks are a make or break for Kenya, a country that for forty years had the image of a peaceful oasis in a desert of conflicts but which now hangs on the edge of the cliff and is threatened with total collapse.

If the talks do not succeed, many analysts predict a return to violence and chaos throughout the Rift Valley province and in major cities and towns, especially in the west of the country which is an opposition stronghold.

kenyan crisis deal expected next week

Former UN boss Kofi Annan has hinted to the possibility of a political compromise between ODM and PNU by as early as next week. Speaking to the AP Annan said that the two parties have shown positive steps towards finding a political solution to the chaos that have hit the once peaceful East African state. Meanwhile, ODM luminary William Ruto was quoted by the same AP as having said that both parties had agreed to form a unity government. Annan was however reluctant to admit this saying that such statements should not be made prematurely before the actual deal is sealed.

Kenya needs a solution to its crisis fast. The economy is bleeding – jobs are being lost, production capacity has been diminished and investor confidence is at an all time low. The situation has also adversely affected regional economies of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Southern Sudan and Eastern DRC. Last week the Kenyan central bank admitted that 2008 will see a reduction in the projected 5% growth rate.

A deal between the two parties would be the ideal solution because it is obvious that neither can govern the country effectively on its own. Odinga has support in most of Western Kenya and among Kenyan muslims at the coast while Kibaki’s support base is mostly concentrated in the Central region of Kenya. A power sharing arrangement would thus make both blocks happy and promote the spirit of national reconciliation and strengthening of the idea of a united Kenya.

It is also important that the Annan team sees ahead beyond Raila and Kibaki. The deal should not just be designed to please these two aging men but should also include constitutional amendments to reduce the power of the presidency, decentralise government, make the judiciary, legislature and the electoral commission independent and promote equitable sharing of public resources like land and government-provided public goods.

kenya braces for more protests

Kenya seems to be headed for more protests after the opposition refused to follow a government directive banning all political protests in the country following last month’s disputed elections.

Just yesterday the opposition in a show of strength forced through the election of Kenneth Marende over the government’s preferred candidate for the position of speaker of the national assembly, the third most powerful office in the land.

In anticipation of possible violence and looting, many shops are expected to remain closed on Wednesday and police have been deployed throughout the country to ensure that peace prevails and possibly to break-up any opposition marches.

Many analysts, activists and lawyers have asked the government to lift the ban it has imposed on the media and against political rallies as these bans are in clear violation of Kenyans’ freedom of speech and assembly.

Any reasonable person, from either side of the political divide, must find it very disturbing that the same people who less than a decade ago were fighting for free press and freedom of assembly are the ones who now issue statements banning rallies and live broadcasts with abandon. Things never really change. Just people.

kenneth Marende elected speaker

The Kenyan opposition candidate Kenneth Marende has been elected speaker of the National Assembly. This is could be a glimpse of things to come in the country’s tenth parliament where the opposition has a majority over the government. By electing their own candidate for the speaker, the opposition has proven that it has full control of the house and will challenge the government through legal means over the disputed Dec 2007 elections.

The government candidate, long serving former speaker,  Francis Ole Kaparo, lost by four votes. The total tally of the votes was 105 against 101.

kenyan talks collapse, more violence expected

Kenya seems to be headed for more chaos as talks between the government and the main opposition party over disputed elections collapsed on Thursday. The opposition then reacted to this by announcing three days of street protests throughout the country in an attempt to force the government to resign.

The government is yet to react to the call for fresh protests. Last time the opposition tried to go to the streets they were met by paramilitary officers with clubs and water canons. A few were shot dead in the Western cities of Kisumu and Eldoret, the hot beds of opposition support.

By refusing to allow mediation to work, the two leaders in the midst of the current chaos, Kibaki and Raila, risk plunging this former oasis of peace on the continent of Africa into yet another failed African state. The economy has lost more than a billion dollars since December 27th and the stock market continues to record losses – five percent of its value has already been wiped off thanks to the violence.

True to a Swahili proverb, when two elephants fight its the grass that suffers – as Kibaki and Raila lock horns in their struggle for power it is the ordinary poor Kenyans that are feeling the pinch, more than anyone else. Prices have shot up since violence erupted in late December and more than 500 people have died already. A panel of mediators led by former UN secretary general Kofi Annan is expected into the country to try and mediate a settlement between Raila and Kibaki. The government has already shown its unwillingness to cooperate by insisting that the country needs no mediators as it is not in a state of war.

kibaki names cabinet

President Kibaki has just announced a new cabinet. In his cabinet, he has included the Hon. Kalonzo as vice president and minister for home affairs. Also included in the cabinet are former members Michuki, Karua, Saitoti, Wetangula, Kimunya, Kiraitu, among others.

The announcement could not have come at a worse time. The country was just gearing for negotiations between Kibaki and the main opposition leader Raila. The nation had expected the president to show goodwill by not naming a cabinet until negotiations were underway. It is likely that the main opposition group, the ODM, which maintains it won the Dec. 27 polls will not take this announcement lying down.

By announcing his cabinet, or part of it – since he does not have enough “national” MPs, the president has shown that he is not taking the negotiation process seriously. He should realize that now is not the time to be partisan about matters. He ought to have waited until a solution was found out of the impasse that has gripped the country for nearly two weeks before forming a government.

This new development is likely to generate more heat in Kenya’s political climate. On Tuesday Raila refused to hold any talks with Kibaki unless the talks were mediated by an international observer. President Kofuor of Ghana is now likely to leave the country without any success as both sides dig in by taking confrontational rather than reconciliatory positions.

Full list available here

beyond the chaos, kenya and its institutions

Who would have thought back in 2002 that it was under a Kibaki presidency that Kenya would experience violence and chaos of the magnitude being reported in the news? Who would have guessed that Kibaki, the gentleman of Kenyans politics, would be the one being accused (whether justly or not) of rigging elections and trying to unlawfully hang onto power?

As Kenyans deliberate among and within themselves on the way forward, it is important to reflect on the causes of the existing mayhem and establish some truths. At the risk of sounding too simplistic, I am of the opinion that the existing anarchy in Kenya is as a result the lack of strong, impersonal institutions.

The lack of strong institutions handed the country a compromised electoral commission, full of appointees of the same person running for re-election. It was always obvious who the commissioners would side with in the event of a disputed outcome as was seen last Sunday. It therefore came as no surprise that while admitting that there were irregularities and suspicious figures on the tallying sheets, the commission did not order a recount or complete audit but proceeded to declare the president the winner base on the same questionable figures.

The lack of a culture of independent institutionalism has also made the opposition wary to present their case in the Kenyan high court, yet another institution teeming with the president’s appointees. In fact it is this lack of faith in the judiciary that left Kenyans no alternative but to resort to justice by the masses, which has unfortunately been laced with rioting, murder, ethnic confrontations and looting.

As the politicians get ready to have dialogue and possibly come up with a power sharing arrangement, on top of the agenda should be a clear and genuine commitment to the creation of impersonal institutions that will serves Kenyans well. It is of paramount importance that Kenyans develop confidence in the country’s institutions in order to avert situations when citizens take the law into their own hands – as we are witnessing now.

 

It is also important for Kenyans to realize that they cannot afford to take the back seat and let the politicians “institutionalize” tribalism. Kenyans should unite in their opposition to ethnic polarization because the country needs all its citizens in its quest for economic and social development. The just concluded elections have shown that it is quite possible for Kenyans of different ethnicities to come together for a common cause. Wananchi should be proud of this fact and not let the politicians take it away from them.

urgent need to convene the Kenyan parliament

Kenya remains without a parliament even as violence threatens to shred to pieces this once stable land in East Africa. The president is holed up in State House and is yet to issue a statement on the way forward, besides the chest thumping rhetoric about the ability of the security forces to deal with the post-election violence that has led to more than 300 deaths and displacement of more than 100,000 Kenyans (According to the Kenyan Red Cross).

As things stand, there is no avenue for dialogue between the government and the main opposition party that believes it wont the election but was denied victory by the government through rigging. This situation calls for the immediate swearing in of the new members of parliament in order to provide an arena for debate and dialogue on the way forward for Kenya.

The opposition should strongly consider using parliament to oust the president, if indeed they cannot stand his presidency for another five years. With 45% of the votes in parliament, and with cracks beginning to show within the president’s party, the opposition might be able to garner the more than 50% of votes needed to vote the government out of power in a vote of no confidence.

Parliamentary debate will also create the impression that something is being done about the situation and therefore lower tension in the country. Right now there seems to be an impasse and this is contributing to the rising tension all over the country.

It is very saddening that Kibaki and Raila remain obstinate and hell bent on plunging Kenya into an abyss of violence and barbarism. Kenyans should see these two leaders for who they really are – power hungry men with not much love for their country. Why are they still setting pre-conditions for dialogue when the country is flirting with the possibility of an all out civil war? Why haven’t they issued a joint statement condemning the violence and destruction of property?

As ordinary poor Kenyans die and lose their property, the real culprits – those who stole the election and those that are not willing to compromise for the country’s sake – continue to live near to normal lives without the food and fuel shortages that are beginning to further exacerbate Kenyans’ misery. This madness has to stop.

the anarchy in kenya begins to affect the region

Over the years, Kenya has emerged as the political and economic Mecca in East and Central Africa. It is therefore not surprising that the region is already feeling the effect of the current political crisis that has almost brought Kenya to its knees. Most of the countries in the region import goods from and/or through Kenya.

Reports from Uganda already indicate a rise in fuel prices and there is fear that more shortages and price hikes are to follow. Uganda imports nearly all of its fuel through Kenya. Kenya is also the region’s biggest exporter of manufactured goods. The raging violence has shut down businesses and factories and there are virtually no vehicles on the major highways. With the Kenyan economy in limbo, the region’s economic stability remains severely threatened.

It all seems unreal that Kenyans, who for decades have hosted refugees from all its neighbors, are now fleeing their own country to seek refuge in places like Uganda and Tanzania. Only time will tell how the region will respond to the increasingly alarming refugee situation. About 80,000 Kenyans have already been displaced from their homes. If the situation is not arrested soon, instability in Kenya will most likely spread to other countries in the region – most likely Eastern Uganda and Northern Tanzania.

Kenya’s decent to chaos will also be a big blow to the prospects for democracy on the continent of Africa. Before the post-election eruption of violence, Kenya had been seen by many African countries as a model of democracy and stability. Kenya also played a big role in bringing peace to troubled areas like Southern Sudan and Somalia. It is therefore in the region’s interest that Kenya remains stable and peaceful.

As a Kenyan editorial peace put it today, “It is unbelievable foolishness for Kenyans to destroy their economy, their homes and their entire way of life in the name of politics.” Peace and stability should be put before everything else not just for Kenyans’ sake but for the sake of the entire region as well.

more violence expected at tomorrow’s odm rally in Kenya

The main opposition party in Kenya, ODM, has announced that it will go ahead with its scheduled protest rally tomorrow in Nairobi in defiance of a government ban on all political rallies. Kenya has in the last three days witnessed the worst kind of violence in its 44-year history due to disputed results of the just concluded presidential election.

The government insists that the incumbent won while the main opposition party believes that they were unjustly denied victory through rigging. Observers, both local and international, and the electoral commission of Kenya have said that there were irregularities in the tallying of results and that this might have influenced the outcome of the polls.

Opposition leader Raila Odinga said on Wednesday that his party will not relent in its quest to have Kibaki resign. He also set this as a pre-condition for any level of dialogue between him and the president.

And to complicate matters further, the head of the electoral commission said Wednesday that he doesn’t know who won last Thursday election and that he announced the results while under duress from the government.

As the politicians remain stubborn and unwilling to resolve the impasse, ordinary Kenyans are the ones bearing the brunt of the stalemate. The death toll this far is believed to be over 300 and property worth millions of shillings destroyed. Shops remain closed and those that have opened ran out of supplies as people rushed in to stock up.

Thrusday’s opposition rally will be a real test for both sides of the political divide and may determine the course of events in this formerly peaceful and stable country in East Africa.

Many concerned Africans have expressed shock and disappointment as one of the rare working models of democracy and economic development on the continent goes up in flames infront of their eyes. The African Union president John Kofuor of Ghana is scheduled to jet into the country on Thursday to try and mediate between the president and his opposition rival.

Death toll continues to rise in church arson incident

I just read a most shocking story about over 50 Kenyans (mostly innocent women and children) having died after the church they had sought refuge in was burnt by an angry mob protesting against the government over their country’s flawed elections. This story is shocking not just because of the tragic loss of lives but also because of the heavily loaded symbolism that it had – the burning of a church.

Kenyans are a very religious lot and the fact that people are angry enough to burn churches should set off alarming bells everywhere. Do Kenyans really want to take this road? Is it really worth it? When is it going to stop after we start burning each other up in places of worship and are divided on ethnic lines?

There is an urgent need for the Kenyan leadership to slow down events. Things have been happening quite fast since the elections on the 27th of Dec and nobody seems to be in control anymore. The government spokesman was crazy enough the other day to say that the violence was isolated…….. Kisumu, Eldoret, Nairobi, Nakuru and Mombasa are not isolated incidents, Mr. Mutua. The only person you are fooling is yourself.

kenya, quickly degenerating into an African statistic

Achebe hit the nail on the head when he said that the trouble with Nigeria (and by extension Africa) was simply and squarely one of leadership. Nowhere else in the world has leadership failed the people more than on the continent of Africa. African leaders, whether dictators or otherwise, have proven to be the most inept and ideologically bankrupt lot the world has ever known.

The unfolding situation in Kenya is a glaring example of leadership that is devoid of any consideration for the common man. There is an East African proverb that says ‘when two elephants fight it is the grass that suffers.’ This proverb couldn’t be closer to the truth. It is the poor Kenyans living in slums and rural areas that are suffering and dying while the upper class watch the grim situation on international tv stations from the safety of their well protected homes.

Kibaki and Raila, the two men at the centre of the disputed elections, should act like the statesmen they claim to be and resolve the dispute as soon as possible in order to avert further loss of life and property. Estimates indicate that the Kenyan economy is losing billions of shillings everyday due to the violence and looting that is being witnessed nearly all over the country. These two men should stop playing around with the lives of 37 million Kenyans by being conceited and unidimensional in their quest for power.

The elections had irregularities, no doubt about that. But is this the best way of dealing with it? Did more than 200 Kenyans have to die just because Kibaki and Raila cannot down size their egos and come to a compromise? Do these two men realise that Kenya will still be around even after they are both dead and buried?

As many Kenyan politicians have been quick to point out, the country is more important than individuals. Kibaki and Raila should realise this if Kenya is to be Kenya – a country that has remained peaceful and democratic even as most of its neighbors were up in flames or under the yoke of dictatorships.

Hurried swearing in fishy

Less than an hour after he was declared the winner of this year’s general election, President Mwai Kibaki was hurriedly sworn in at State House Nairobi. The Chief Justice and the Attorney General were present to conduct the ceremony.

The hurried manner in which the swearing in was done makes the whole process suspicious. The president ought to have taken time to calm down tensions and engage the opposition in dialogue and then honor Kenyans for re-electing him by granting them a proper state ceremony.

The sneak swearing in therefore only serves to confirm the president’s and his handlers’ fear that they do not have the mandate to govern. This is indeed a sad day for Kenya. It is yet again a case of an African country failing to hold free and fair elections. The stories of “tribal clashes” in Kenya being aired by the CNNs and Reuters of this world are just a reminder of how stuck in the past Africa still is. This is a big blow to Africa’s self esteem – when open rigging is witnessed and condoned in one its most fledgling democracies.

I hope Kenyans will not use violent means to express their discontent. I hope that the president will move quickly to reconcile the country. I hope that the opposition will act responsibly and desist from making any inflammatory remarks. I hope sanity will prevail.

tension remains high in kenya

There is high tension in Kenya following the delay in the announcement of the winner of the country’s just concluded general election. The electoral commission had earlier on canceled the tallying of results after irregularities were found in a number of constituencies.  The opposition leader has urged the president to concede in light of the fact that nearly 20 of his cabinet ministers were voted out and the opposition’s win of over half of the seats in parliament.

The president’s main challenger claimed victory and gave a rather alarming warning that Kenya could degenerate into the Ivory Coast, a country dubbed as “West Africa’s Kenya” but that was plunged into civil war after disputed elections.  It is indeed a very crucial moment in Kenya’s history. This far this country has been one of the most stable on the continent and was seen by many as a model of democracy and progressive governance.

It is also unfortunate that the president has remained quiet over the last three days even as chaos were being reported in various parts of the country. This is a sad moment in Kenya’s history, and yet another setback in the continent’s match towards transparent, liberal democratic governance.

a sad ending to a flawless process

Although this year’s general elections Kenya were billed as the closest in the country’s history, many observers noted that the voting was largely conducted in a free and fair manner. Nearly all polling stations across the country opened on time and had voting go on uninterrupted by violence or intimidation as was the fear of some. Both observers and contestants acknowledged that the elections qualified to be termed as free and fair.

But trouble started when towards the end fishy results started being announced at the election HQs in Nairobi. Most of the anomalies were reported in areas that are known to be pro the incumbent. This fact was aptly demonstrated by the fact that in one constituency in the president’s province, the number of votes cast exceeded the number of registered voters. It therefore came as no surprise that when the same areas started showing results with voter turn outs close to 100% the opposition party got up in arms and started to demand for an explanation as to what was going on.

As this was happening, news reached various parts of the country which inevitably resulted in idle youths and those concerned over the evident rigging taking to the streets in protest. As happens with most political demonstrations against the government in Kenya, police were sent in to disperse the crowds and the resulting chaos led to further violence, confusion and looting of property.

In the end the electoral commission suspended all tallying of votes for the night until tomorrow morning when they will review the results from all 210 constituencies.

It is quite frustrating that after the peaceful campaigning and the very high voter turn out the elections should end on such a sour note. The president’s men should know better than to rig elections, especially this one since it was known to be very close. Now because of Maragwa and other areas the opposition will not accept the outcome if indeed it emerges that the president won. And to some extent their discontent will be justified.

A government victory in this election would not have been eyed with this much suspicion had it not engaged in open rigging as has been observed. In its attempts to assure itself a safe victory, the government has only managed to stoke the fires of suspicion across the nation. This fact has been further exacerbated by the fact that the president’s party won just about a third of the parliamentary seats won by the main opposition party. So even if the government gets away with the irregularities, it is still going to find a hard time passing legislation in parliament because of its lack of a majority.

As Kenya holds its breath one can only hope that the electoral commission will try and be as fair as possible. It is no secret that the integrity of the outcome of this year’s election has already been soiled. What we now hope for is that the ECK will do a great job in damage control so that the final results most accurately approximate the wishes of the Kenyan people.