Category Archives: Politics

annan threatens to leave Kenyan talks

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Kofi Annan has threatened to leave the Kenyan talks if no progress is made soon. Mr. Annan has been leading talks aimed at finding a lasting solution to some of the problems that caused and/or were results of the flawed elections held in the country last December. According to an aide to Mr. Annan, the former UN boss lamented that he had put a lot of important things on hold to be a part of the talks and that if it emerged that the negotiating parties were not willing to reach a compromise soon he would leave.

The talks, according to recent media briefings, have reached a critical stage. Both the government and the opposition have agreed on the creation of a prime minister’s post that will be occupied by the opposition leader Raila Odinga. However, the problem has been whether the prime minister should have some executive powers or not. The government insists that the current constitution allows for the creation of a non-executive premier while the opposition wants an amendment to create the position of an executive premier and also for an equal share of cabinet positions and other appointments.

I hate to be pessimistic but things look really bad for this East African country. With the imminent collapse of the talks, the government will probably get marginalised by the international community, a situation that will make it even more autocratic and impervious to the wishes of ordinary Kenyans. Inevitably there will be more tribal bloodshed because the opposition remains adamant in its insistence that it won the elections held last December. Plus the post-election violence has divided the country on tribal lines so much that any national reconciliation will necessarily need ODM and PNU to come up with a political solution and possible a broad-based transitional government.

Kenya is steadily turning into the Ivory Coast. The latter, a former third biggest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, descended into civil strife soon after fraudulent elections were held following the death of long time strongman Houphouet Boigny. Kenya, like Boigny-Ivory Coast, was relatively stable during the iron fisted reign of Daniel Arap Moi for nearly a quarter of a century. However, after last year’s fraudulent elections that saw the return of the incumbent Mwai Kibaki, violence erupted that resulted in the death of more than 1000 people and destruction of property worth billions of shillings.

Both sides of the political divide seem not to have the interest of ordinary Kenyans at heart. The business community and the rest of the civil society seem to have taken a wait-and-see stance. Meanwhile hundreds of thousands of Kenyans remain displaced in IDP camps without enough food or medication.

Three months ago no one would have predicted that Kenya would become yet another African statistic to be mentioned in the same light with the likes of Ivory Coast, Somalia, Zimbabwe …….. and all the others.

There may still be time to save the situation. But as things stand, I think the country is still in the eye of the storm – with more trouble to come before sanity returns. I just hope that Kenya and Kenyans are strong enough to endure through all this and emerge as an even stronger country.

who is this person?

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The law is an ass. If you disagree then what can you make of a Kenyan, in this time of deep crisis, filing a case in court to stop the ongoing Kofi Annan led negotiations on the grounds that they are unconstitutional and in gross violation of his rights – with regard to whom he voted for in Kenya’s December 27th elections?

A gentleman by the name Anthony Ndung’u Kirori wants the courts to stop the talks and instead ask the ODM to seek redress over last year’s flawed elections throught the courts. The case will be heard on Monday. My guess is that reason will prevail at the high courts and this case will be thrown out, or in typical Kenyan fashion, will be allowed to drag on without any ruling until the talks are concluded.

But Anthony Ndung’u Kirori is not crazy at all. Although his intentions may be suspect given Kenya’s unique situation, he is right when he says that election petitions should be handled by courts and not a former UN secretary general. However, this gentleman also ought to know that as much as Kenyans should remain subordinate to the law, the law was made to serve Kenyans and not the other way round. The law is not an end in itself.

The law was designed to grant Kenyans a safe environment to live and pursue their dreams. So going by this argument, if the implementation of a given law would result in the collapse of society; mayhem, killings and general disorder (like the cessation of the Annan talks would), then the particular law would be going against the overall objective of all laws and should therefore be suppressed.

A good sign, perhaps, is the fact that Martha Karua – the justice minister – did climb down from her obduracy about the need to follow the law to the letter. Her climb down means that the executive knows that right now the most important thing is to find a way out of Kenya’s mess and the law should be used to serve that purpose. The judiciary should take cue and throw this case out as soon as possible.

That said, you’ve got to wonder what exactly Mr. Anthony Ndung’u Kirori wants for his country. You know that Kenya is still divided when people like Anthony go to court to stop talks aimed at stopping killings, rape, looting and destruction of property.

the absurd

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Here is a story from the BBC website that made me feel sad, angry and embarrassed, all at the same time. How do you build a hospital, equip it, and then keep it shut until the head of state opens it, all this while people whose tax money built the hospital continue to die? What level of madness is this? This is a shame on Yar’Adua and a confirmation of how hard it is for African leaders to get rid of the big man mentality. What makes presidents think that they are obligated to travel around on the tax payer’s tab just to cut ribbons and smile at the cameras?

It is bad enough that a big chunk of Africa’s roads, hospitals, universities, schools, among others, are named after despots – Kenya alone has several Moi High Schools, A Moi internation Airport, Moi stadium/sports complex, Moi Avenue, Moi University…….. This self aggrandizement has to stop. Keeping a hospital shut because of a single individual is the epitome of madness. SHAME SHAME SHAME. This is an embarrassment to Nigeria and to all that care about Nigeria – Africa’s perennial “potential hegemon-leader”.

which gets me thinking……..

Perhaps African leaders do all these things to immortalize themselves. But can’t this quest for immortality be achieved better if they wrote books and came up with revolutionary ways of dealing with the many problems facing the continent than merely naming roads after themselves or putting their faces on currencies – things that can be easily changed? Ideas last forever and the inventors of great ideas forever remain immortal. For instance, when I think of Senghor, I rarely think of his presidency, little of which I know. I think of Senghor the poet and staunch Africanist. Same with Cabral, Nyerere and Kwameh Nkrumah, all of whom were great idealists who bothered to write and let people know what went on between their ears and will forever occupy Africa’s pantheon of great leaders. Incidents like this in Borno State, Nigeria make you wonder whether our leaders have anything at all between their ears.

So a quick message to our leaders, from the cultured intellectuals like Wade, Mbeki, Mogae (among others) to those who seem to be allergic to reason like Obiang’, Deby and al-Bashir (among others) : write, write, write. If you want us to remember you give us new ideas that will help the continent escape the trap of pre-modernity. If you name a school after yourself we will change the name as soon as a rebel leaders comes along, deposes you and probably dispatches you to the Creator only to start from where you left.

weekly news round up

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This week saw a lot take place on the continent.

In Kenya, negotiations to restore order and legitimacy in the government and possibly grant the opposition a power sharing arrangement are in an advanced stage. The former UN boss Kofi Annan, who is chairing the talks, is scheduled to announce to the Kenyan public agreements made thus far tomorrow (Friday).  Kenyans desperately need a political solution to the crisis that has hit the formerly peaceful nation since last year’s election.

Moving North West to Chad, the president Idriss Deby has declared a state of emergency after last week’s coup attempt. Deby’s government was almost toppled by a bunch of rag-tag rebels who are believed to be in cahoots with the government of Sudan. Lucky for Deby, the French sent in their airforce which enabled the government repel the rebels who were already in the capital and ready to take control of the presidential palace. The curfew restricts movement at night and especially the movement of vehicles. The defeat of the rebels last week was surely a mere postponement of their return since the government of Chad remains weak and only concentrated in Djamena.

Down South, former Zimbabwean finance minister, Simba Makoni, announced that he was going to challenge Robert Mugabe 82, in the March elections. Makoni’s announcement was swiftly followed by his expulsion from ZANU-PF and a rejection from the main opposition chief, Morgan Tsvangirae. Zimbabwe’s opposition remains sectarian and Mugabe loves this because it does guarantee him a win in March. Makes you wonder whether these people really want Rob’s government out.

In the Comoros islands, the government announced that it was planning to carry out an invasion of the renegade island of Anjouan in an attempt to reunite the Indian ocean archipelago. Comoros consists of three islands Anjouan, Grand Comore and Moheli each with its own autonomous government. Anjouan, however, led by one Mr. Mohammed Bacar, has broken from the fold since it held controversial elections in June of last year. Majority of the residents of Anjouan seem to be in favor of the invasion by the Union government based in Moroni, the capital. It’s now a wait ands see as the government continues to amass troops on the island of Moheli. Watch this space. 

Looking ahead, President George Bush of the US is due to visit Africa. The president’s itinerary will include stops in Tanzania, Rwanda, Ghana, Benin and Liberia. The president’s visit will mainly serve to highlight the successes of his efforts to stop the spread of aids on the continent and to distribute ARVs to those already infected. Accompanying him will be first lady Laura Bush and the “foreign affairs minister” Condi Rice.

kenyan crisis deal expected next week

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Former UN boss Kofi Annan has hinted to the possibility of a political compromise between ODM and PNU by as early as next week. Speaking to the AP Annan said that the two parties have shown positive steps towards finding a political solution to the chaos that have hit the once peaceful East African state. Meanwhile, ODM luminary William Ruto was quoted by the same AP as having said that both parties had agreed to form a unity government. Annan was however reluctant to admit this saying that such statements should not be made prematurely before the actual deal is sealed.

Kenya needs a solution to its crisis fast. The economy is bleeding – jobs are being lost, production capacity has been diminished and investor confidence is at an all time low. The situation has also adversely affected regional economies of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Southern Sudan and Eastern DRC. Last week the Kenyan central bank admitted that 2008 will see a reduction in the projected 5% growth rate.

A deal between the two parties would be the ideal solution because it is obvious that neither can govern the country effectively on its own. Odinga has support in most of Western Kenya and among Kenyan muslims at the coast while Kibaki’s support base is mostly concentrated in the Central region of Kenya. A power sharing arrangement would thus make both blocks happy and promote the spirit of national reconciliation and strengthening of the idea of a united Kenya.

It is also important that the Annan team sees ahead beyond Raila and Kibaki. The deal should not just be designed to please these two aging men but should also include constitutional amendments to reduce the power of the presidency, decentralise government, make the judiciary, legislature and the electoral commission independent and promote equitable sharing of public resources like land and government-provided public goods.

Kenyan negotiations enter critical stage

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The Annan led team trying to reestablish sanity in Kenya will from tomorrow start looking at the most contentious issues thus far – the issues of the alleged election fraud, land, economic disparity and constitutional reform to limit the powers of the president. This is expected to be the most critical stage of the negotiations because most of the violence that has visited Kenya over the last month was caused either directly or indirectly by one or a combination of the above factors.

The government side has indicated that it will not compromise on the matter of Kibaki having been elected even as the ODM continues to insist that the election was stolen by the Kibaki camp. Today (Wednesday, 5th) both sets of negotiators held meetings with their respective principals to brief them on the goings on in Serena. Annan, who has been joined by former Tanzanian president Mkapa and Mandela’s wife Graca Machel, expressed optimism over the talks. His sentiments were echoed by both Ruto and Kilonzo of ODM and PNU-ODM-Kenya respectively.

Meanwhile the central bank governor issued a statement saying that the Kenyan economy is expected to fail to meet the projected annual growth of 5% for the year 2008. This he attributed to the adverse effect the recent violence has had on production, consumption and investor confidence. The private sector estimates that more than 400,000 Kenyans will lose their jobs if the situation does not improve soon. This would be bad for a country with unemployment rate that is approaching the high forties.

Kenyan leaders ought to know that the last thing they need is even more angry, hungry and jobless young people in the streets.

chadian rebels finally routed

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Chad, like most of central Africa, is a sad story. After days of fighting, reports indicate that the government of Idriss Deby – possibly with some help from the French – has managed to to repel rebels from the capital and gain “total control.” The question is, for how long? This was the second time in a few years that the rebels had marched into the capital and threatened to topple Deby. This was also a confirmation that the government of Chad remains weak and unable to provide security, let alone development programmes, for its own people.

The story of Chad is a story that is repeated many times on the continent of Africa. You always have very weak governments that are unable to provide the most basic of public goods to their people but that are propped up by the West- the French being the number one culprits here. The French were friends with Bokassa and Mobutu, among other francophone-African dictators who brought much suffering to their own people while maintaining strong ties to Paris and having frequent state visits to the Elysee. The opposition to these weak governments is also just as weak. The many rebels movements fighting silly wars of greed devoid of any ideological significance are too weak to win. Instead they put their countrymen through wars of attrition that keep them forever stagnant in pre-modern subsistence existence. The same applies for Political opposition parties. Think of Zimbabwe. Everyone wants Mugabe out, except Tsvangirai and Mutambara – the two men who have refused to join forces within the MDC in order to unseat Bob.

More than two decades after Achebe wrote about it in Nigeria, the trouble with Africa still remains simply and squarely a problem of leadership. There is nothing inherently wrong with Africa or the African people. The only strange thing about Africa is its ability to keep churning out more Mobutus, Bokassas and Amins and very few Mandelas.

Going back to Chad…… may be it is a good thing that Deby is still president. However, deep down I think that that Africans should think hard about their many weak and unviable states. The DRC, Somalia and many states in the Sahel some to mind. If these countries cannot get their act together they should be left to the mercy of “evolution of states” so that in the end we can have states that are viable and able to provide for their people and not kleptocracies that only benefit their leaders’ kinsmen and a few multinational corporations.

zimbabwe opposition a let down

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You would imagine that with a president like one Robert Mugabe the Zimabwean opposition would do anything in their capacity to have him out of power. But you would be wrong. This power hungry lot (yes, this is what I think of them) has refused to come up with a coalition against Mugabe. Their leaders, Tsvangirai and Mutambara, have confirmed that talks between their rival MDC factions have “broken down irretrievably” – according to the BBC.

A divided MDC almost certainly guarantees the aging Mugabe a win in the March polls. Meanwhile, ordinary Zimbabweans continue to live their lives under the yoke of the wayward economic practices that the world has come to know the Mugabe administration for. Mugabe’s bad economics has also been served with a touch of human rights abuses and lack of respect for the rule of law. It is really shocking to imagine how he manages to get re-elected.

Tsvangirai and Mutambara owe it to their countrymen and women to form a united front if they really want to unseat Mugabe. They have no business running separate campaigns in March because this will guarantee the presidency to Mugabe. Knowing African leaders (yes, I think after all that has happened on the continent from Senegal to Somalia and Chad to South Africa I can make this generalization, but I digress) I don’t think these two power hungry men will let their egos and quest for personal aggrandizement take the back seat and let the plight of their countrymen and women take the front seat.

Sadly, this is yet another case of African leaders lacking true leadership. It also paints a bad picture of both Tsvangirai and Mutambara and makes one doubt whether these two really want to end the bad governance that we’ve come to associate with Bob or whether they just want to perpetuate the same old practices of rent-seeking, cronyism and over-the-roof inflations rates – but may be with less human rights abuses and the jailing of opposition supporters. Even this is questionable, after seeing what Kenya has turned into following the “bad” years of Moi rule. African leaders just have a way of making you look back and shock yourself by wishing you had the likes of Moi in power.

If Tsvangirai and Mutambara care about their international reputation thy ought to unite. Otherwise many reasonable people will question their vision for Zimbabwe and indeed their commitment to ousting Mugabe and bettering the lives of millions of hungry, sick and illiterate Zimbabweans.

chadian government may fall soon

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Idriss Deby, the president of Chad, is in deep trouble. Rebel forces are reported to have entered the capital, Ndjamena, and are marching to the presidential palace “surprisingly easily.” The rebels have been waging a war against the government of Mr. Idriss Deby for some years now and this time they managed to march into the capital and seem to be ready to topple the government.

Many had expected that the French army was going to step in to help Mr. Deby but it seems like the French are taking a wait-and-see position on this one. Mr. Deby accuses the government of Sudan of supporting the Chadian rebels. Sudan on the other hand accuses Chad of sponsoring the Darfuri rebels that have given Khartoum very bad press since 2000.

The African Union has condemned the attempted violent seizure of power but done nothing else. As the rebels marched towards the capital no country within the organisation offered any kind of support for Mr. Deby.

It is a bit surprising and disturbing at the same time that the government of Chad is being toppled so easily by a rebel movement. The march to the capital was well known and documented by the international media yet the government seemed to lack the capacity to take the fight to the rebels in the North East before they reached the capital. May be the government ought to be removed – because it has proven to be weak and unable to protect its people against these marauding desert rebels.

It is unclear what the rebels intend to do once they seize power. The success rate of such movements in forming governments is very low. Only Museveni, Kagame, Kabila, Zenawi and Charles Taylor have ever pulled this off before. All the other coups on the continent have been carried out by disgruntled government soldiers.

Meanwhile, as the men fight it out for power in this hot and dusty country, hundreds of thousands of people face crises on both sides of the Sudan-Chad border. The refugee camps are crowded, disease infested and unsafe. Aid workers have scaled down most of their operations due to the security situation leaving thousands without much hope for a better life.

ainamoi mp shot dead

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A policeman has shot dead Ainamoi MP David Kimutai Too in Eldoret. Also killed was a policewoman in the company of Mr. Too in what security chiefs are calling a crime of passion. The MP was in the company of the policewoman who is believed to have been the girlfriend of the suspect. The woman suffered gun shot wounds and died on arrival at the hospital. The police are treating this as a crime of passion and have arrested the responsible police officer. The suspect will appear in court tomorrow to answer to charges of double murder.

The murder of Mr. Too, a former principal of Boywek Secondary School, comes just days after another MP. Mr. Were was shot dead by gangsters outside his home in Nairobi. Both MPs belonged to the opposition Orange Democratic Movement. Immediately after the killing of Mr. Too riots were reported in towns in Western Kenya. Eldoret, Kisumu, Kericho and Siaya were scenes of violent protests by supporters of ODM.

The police commissioner has warned politicians not to use the latest murder to incite the public saying that there was no evidence that the murder was politically motivated.

kenya braces for more protests

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Kenya seems to be headed for more protests after the opposition refused to follow a government directive banning all political protests in the country following last month’s disputed elections.

Just yesterday the opposition in a show of strength forced through the election of Kenneth Marende over the government’s preferred candidate for the position of speaker of the national assembly, the third most powerful office in the land.

In anticipation of possible violence and looting, many shops are expected to remain closed on Wednesday and police have been deployed throughout the country to ensure that peace prevails and possibly to break-up any opposition marches.

Many analysts, activists and lawyers have asked the government to lift the ban it has imposed on the media and against political rallies as these bans are in clear violation of Kenyans’ freedom of speech and assembly.

Any reasonable person, from either side of the political divide, must find it very disturbing that the same people who less than a decade ago were fighting for free press and freedom of assembly are the ones who now issue statements banning rallies and live broadcasts with abandon. Things never really change. Just people.

kenneth Marende elected speaker

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The Kenyan opposition candidate Kenneth Marende has been elected speaker of the National Assembly. This is could be a glimpse of things to come in the country’s tenth parliament where the opposition has a majority over the government. By electing their own candidate for the speaker, the opposition has proven that it has full control of the house and will challenge the government through legal means over the disputed Dec 2007 elections.

The government candidate, long serving former speaker,  Francis Ole Kaparo, lost by four votes. The total tally of the votes was 105 against 101.

when will africa get it right?

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A few months ago, after the Nigerian election, I read a piece in a leading international newspaper that said that Africa had yet again failed at democracy. The article infuriated me because it was a blanket write off of the entire continent as being undemocratic. I thought about Kenya, Senegal and Botswana as viable democracies that were capable of holding free and fair elections and which had freedom of the press.

But then Kenya happened. A country that was largely peaceful and with prospects of becoming a middle income country in the next decade and a half suddenly imploded and descended into never-before seen chaos. An election was stolen by a man who was viewed as one of the better behaved presidents on a continent infested with autocrats and dictators.

How, after all this, can we convince the world that Nigeria, Zimbabwe, the CAF, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan, Somalia, Chad, the DCR and all the others are isolated incidents? How are we going to convince ourselves that we are capable of running peaceful and prosperous countries when all that exist around us are chaos and murderous wars? Total failure?

It is true that countries like Botswana and Senegal still remain stable and democratic and also headed towards economic prosperity. South Africa is also doing quite well, although I am holding my breath to see what a Zuma presidency has in store for us. But the rest of the countries either have wars, or some form of instability and those that are peaceful have poverty rates that are utterly inhuman, to put it mildly.

It is extremely vital for the continent not to let a working model like Kenya sink into the same pit that has the Somalias of the continent. This is because many countries in East Africa depend on Kenya for their own economic success. A failed Kenya would mean no hope for Somalia and serious problems for Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Southern Sudan, Eastern DCR and Northern Tanzania. A failed Kenya will also mean a serious blow to the spread of democracy on the continent and especially East Africa. Besides Tanzania, Kenya was the only other democracy in the region. Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi all have autocrats who would happily use Kenya as an excuse for them to stay in power.

kenyan talks collapse, more violence expected

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Kenya seems to be headed for more chaos as talks between the government and the main opposition party over disputed elections collapsed on Thursday. The opposition then reacted to this by announcing three days of street protests throughout the country in an attempt to force the government to resign.

The government is yet to react to the call for fresh protests. Last time the opposition tried to go to the streets they were met by paramilitary officers with clubs and water canons. A few were shot dead in the Western cities of Kisumu and Eldoret, the hot beds of opposition support.

By refusing to allow mediation to work, the two leaders in the midst of the current chaos, Kibaki and Raila, risk plunging this former oasis of peace on the continent of Africa into yet another failed African state. The economy has lost more than a billion dollars since December 27th and the stock market continues to record losses – five percent of its value has already been wiped off thanks to the violence.

True to a Swahili proverb, when two elephants fight its the grass that suffers – as Kibaki and Raila lock horns in their struggle for power it is the ordinary poor Kenyans that are feeling the pinch, more than anyone else. Prices have shot up since violence erupted in late December and more than 500 people have died already. A panel of mediators led by former UN secretary general Kofi Annan is expected into the country to try and mediate a settlement between Raila and Kibaki. The government has already shown its unwillingness to cooperate by insisting that the country needs no mediators as it is not in a state of war.

kibaki names cabinet

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President Kibaki has just announced a new cabinet. In his cabinet, he has included the Hon. Kalonzo as vice president and minister for home affairs. Also included in the cabinet are former members Michuki, Karua, Saitoti, Wetangula, Kimunya, Kiraitu, among others.

The announcement could not have come at a worse time. The country was just gearing for negotiations between Kibaki and the main opposition leader Raila. The nation had expected the president to show goodwill by not naming a cabinet until negotiations were underway. It is likely that the main opposition group, the ODM, which maintains it won the Dec. 27 polls will not take this announcement lying down.

By announcing his cabinet, or part of it – since he does not have enough “national” MPs, the president has shown that he is not taking the negotiation process seriously. He should realize that now is not the time to be partisan about matters. He ought to have waited until a solution was found out of the impasse that has gripped the country for nearly two weeks before forming a government.

This new development is likely to generate more heat in Kenya’s political climate. On Tuesday Raila refused to hold any talks with Kibaki unless the talks were mediated by an international observer. President Kofuor of Ghana is now likely to leave the country without any success as both sides dig in by taking confrontational rather than reconciliatory positions.

Full list available here