Category Archives: News Analysis

a sad ending to a flawless process

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Although this year’s general elections Kenya were billed as the closest in the country’s history, many observers noted that the voting was largely conducted in a free and fair manner. Nearly all polling stations across the country opened on time and had voting go on uninterrupted by violence or intimidation as was the fear of some. Both observers and contestants acknowledged that the elections qualified to be termed as free and fair.

But trouble started when towards the end fishy results started being announced at the election HQs in Nairobi. Most of the anomalies were reported in areas that are known to be pro the incumbent. This fact was aptly demonstrated by the fact that in one constituency in the president’s province, the number of votes cast exceeded the number of registered voters. It therefore came as no surprise that when the same areas started showing results with voter turn outs close to 100% the opposition party got up in arms and started to demand for an explanation as to what was going on.

As this was happening, news reached various parts of the country which inevitably resulted in idle youths and those concerned over the evident rigging taking to the streets in protest. As happens with most political demonstrations against the government in Kenya, police were sent in to disperse the crowds and the resulting chaos led to further violence, confusion and looting of property.

In the end the electoral commission suspended all tallying of votes for the night until tomorrow morning when they will review the results from all 210 constituencies.

It is quite frustrating that after the peaceful campaigning and the very high voter turn out the elections should end on such a sour note. The president’s men should know better than to rig elections, especially this one since it was known to be very close. Now because of Maragwa and other areas the opposition will not accept the outcome if indeed it emerges that the president won. And to some extent their discontent will be justified.

A government victory in this election would not have been eyed with this much suspicion had it not engaged in open rigging as has been observed. In its attempts to assure itself a safe victory, the government has only managed to stoke the fires of suspicion across the nation. This fact has been further exacerbated by the fact that the president’s party won just about a third of the parliamentary seats won by the main opposition party. So even if the government gets away with the irregularities, it is still going to find a hard time passing legislation in parliament because of its lack of a majority.

As Kenya holds its breath one can only hope that the electoral commission will try and be as fair as possible. It is no secret that the integrity of the outcome of this year’s election has already been soiled. What we now hope for is that the ECK will do a great job in damage control so that the final results most accurately approximate the wishes of the Kenyan people.

rioters demand for results

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News by Nation confirms that rioting has begun in certain parts of the country as voters continue to demand for release of the results of the presidential vote in the just concluded general elections. Official ECK numbers from 159 constituencies show Raila leading with 3.7 vs Kibaki’s 3.4. This still remains a very close race and could go either way depending on the results coming in from the remaining constituencies.

The remaining areas are spread across the country in both ODM and PNU dominated areas. Meru district, parts of coast, Nyanza and Rift valley have not yet sent results and Kivuitu has expressed his dissatisfaction with the situation.

ODM has over 90 confirmed parliamentary seats. PNU has just over 30. Very worrying trend for the Kibaki campaign team since even if they win they are going to have a really hard time in parliament. ODM on the other hand seems to be itching to celebrate what they consider as an historic victory against an incumbent.

The ECK commissioners are having a meeting to chart the way forward. Kivuitu threatened to exclude the areas that had refused to send results by the time he addressed the press conference at about 11.30 am EAT.

I hope this ends well and that the rioting remains isolated in rural towns and does not spread to more populous towns. This was a clean election and the conclusion ought to be just as clean.

tension high in nairobi as eck delays announcement of results

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I just called home and my contacts tell me that there is increasing tension in the capital as the ECK continues to delay the announcement of presidential results. This is most acute in Eastlands where many youth have already started taking to the streets to protest what they see as an attempt by the government to rig the polls, especially the numbers coming out of PNU strongholds.

These are all unconfirmed rumors though. The real culprit is the ECK. They have done a great job so far and it is a shame that they are delaying in the tallying of results.

This is a worrying development. The last thing Kenya needs is rioting in the streets of the capital at a time when there is high tension among the members of both PNU and ODM. KBC is saying that Raila Odinga and his running mate Mudavadi are about to make press statements.

Unconfirmed rumors: Moi in hospital? and I also hear that Kibaki was down with fatigue? Any confirmation of this?

More to come soon……

anxiety as kenya awaits election results

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It almost 36 hours after the official closing of polling stations across the country but Kenyans still do not know who will be their next president for the next 5 years. As things start the presidential race is still up in the air with Raila leading president Kibaki with just over two hundred thousand votes. Most of the votes in Central province and Rift Valley have been counted. The deciding votes, it seems, will come from Coast, Nairobi and the rest of Nyanza (mostly Luo Nyanza) that have not been counted yet.

The ECK is really underperforming right now. Its been 36 hours! How hard can it be to call Nairobi and inform the commissioners the outcome of results. It is also a shame that most of the delay is happening right under the commission’s nose in Nairobi. There have been allegations of rigging in various constituencies in Nairobi, by both PNU and ODM  candidates.

Mars Group gives Raila a lead of 3.8 m vs. Kibaki’s 3.4. Kalonzo is finally having a decent showing with about 8% of the national vote. This is still too close to call. It’s all wait and see. It’s about 6 am. in Kenya and everyone back there must be quite on edge right now after having waited for so long for the final results. I can only imagine what Kibaki and Raila and their families, friends and respective supporters are going through right now.

parliamentary results

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The parliamentary results so far in are overwhelmingly in favor of ODM. PNU has had a very poor show for a president’s party – a further sign of all the weaknesses I kept pointing out (in other fora) during the campaigns. PNU candidates lost to DP, Safina, Ford People, among other parties in central Kenya. ODM has a an almost clean sweep in Nyanza and put up a strong show in Rift Valley and Western – where many of Kibaki’s cabinate ministers lost. Coast is also leaning towards ODM.

This is a worrying phenomenon for those who care about checks and balances. There will definitely be a big void in parliamentary affairs due to the lack of a credible opposition party (if ODM wins, that is). My hope is that ODM-K gets enough votes to be able to form a strong parliamentary opposition party to keep ODM in check.

KANU seems dead and buried. And with PNU having split into a thousand parties it is unlikely that they will remain as a coalition if they find themselves in the opposition by the end of tomorrow.

Kibaki is still showing strongly in the presidential race. But this is not backed by the parliamentary results which are mostly in favor of ODM. Things look bad for the Kibaki tena team and for the spirit of democracy in the country.

All governments, whether good or bad, need a strong opposition to keep them honest and dilligent at their duty to provide public goods to all Kenyans.

kibaki narrows Raila lead

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Kibaki has narrowed Raila’s lead to just 8 percentage points. Raila’s lead has gone down to about 500,000 votes. There are still more results expected to come in from the Rift Valley and other parts of Nyanza that had irregularities. Central Kenya came out almost 100% for Kibaki.

It is not yet over. Not until all the results come in. This election, as was predicted, is going to be a close one despite ODM’s visible confidence in the likes of Ruto and Balala.

signs of things to come

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I am watching KBC and the mood seems to be indicative of the imminent announcement of a Raila victory. Kibaki is trailing the ODM candidate by almost a million votes. KBC, the state channel has shown victory speeches by Ruto, Balala and Nyong’o. Uhuru also appeared for a brief moment telling Kenyans to be patient and wait for the ECK to announce the results.

The state channel seems to have sensed the change and therefore is no longer sounding like a pro-government mouth piece that we have come to expect of it since independence. This sounds more like what happened after the 2002 elections.

Ruto made a speech about the winds of change that are sweeping through the country. Balala and Nyong’o talked about celebrations in readiness for the work ahead next year. Visibly tired and worn out Uhuru sounded disraught in the wake of the utter collapse of the Kibaki tena campaign.

The president’s campaign team had this election to lose and they seem to have done so in style. Raila is leading by a Nyanza-esque margin in Rift Valley, a known Kanu heartland. The opposition leader is also leading in Western, Coast, Nyanza and by a slight margin in North Eastern.

Kibaki is leading in Central and Nairobi (slight margin). While Musyoka has a commanding lead in his Eastern province backyard.

Confirmation has arrived that Ndile has lost his seat. He will be missed a lot.

kenya’s election updates

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The national presidential results are finally trickling in. ECK has also started regular updates with the parliamentary and presidential tallies. Interesting results thus far. Kibaki is still trailing Raila by over half a million votes. KBC has started acting like the GoP is going to lose. But there are still millions of uncounted votes.  It’s definitely going to be a close election between Kibaki and Raila, going by the provinvial numbers.

Parliamentary results show that ODM will have a majority in Parliament. PNU candidates have lost to either ODM or one of the many sub-PNU parties. ODM-K has had a decent showing in Eastern Province with most of Ukambani voting for ODM-K candidates.

So far the VP and 18 ministers have lost their seats. These are: Musikari Kombo, Newton Kulundu, Kipruto Kirwa, Moses Akaranga, Simeon Nyachae, Njenga Karume, Raphael Tuju, David Mwiraria, Mohamud Abdi Mohammed, Morris Dzoro, Suleiman Shakombo, Mutahi Kagwe, Paul Sang, Kivutha Kibwana, Mutua Katuku,  Joseph Munyao and Kalembe Ndile.

These big upsets have also reflected on the presidential vote with ODM beating PNU in areas that were deemed to be PNU strongholds – Kombo and Nyachae being prime examples.

more to come soon…

big losers in Kenya’s elections

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Results streaming into various Kenyan news stations show that the main opposition leader Hon. Odinga is leading the incumbent President Kibaki by hundreds of thousands of votes. But these results are just preliminary since many poll centres have not finished the tallying exercise. As it stands Hon. Odinga has big leads in Western, Nyanza, Rift Valley and Coast provinces, while President Kibaki leads in Central and Nairobi provinces. The third candidate, Hon. Musyoka is leading in his native Eastern province.

The big losers in this election include the vice president and several cabinet ministers who have lost their parliamentary seats. The vice president Hon. Awori lost his seat to Dr. Otuoma, an ODM candidate. Fork Kenya chairman Hon. Kombo has also lost his seat to an ODM candidate. Other big losers include Messrs Raphael Tuju, Mutahi Kagwe, Njenga Karume, Nicholas Biwott, Gideon Moi, Paul Sang, Kabogo, Moses Wetangula, Moses Akaranga, Billow Kerrow, Mukhisa Kituyi, among others.

Meanwhile veteran Ugenya politician James Orengo is set to return to parliament after winning the Ugenya seat on an ODM ticket. News just in indicate that Raila Odinga has recaptured his Lang’ata seat. There were worries that the ODM presidential candidate might lose this seat and hence lose the chance to be president even if he won the presidential race due to constitutional provisions that demand that the president must be a seating MP.

There are no results yet out of North Eastern province. The ECK has not said anything about this anomaly.

kenya votes

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So today is the day Kenyans have been anticipating for the last several months. Beginning at 6 am. poll stations across the country will be opened so that Kenyans can go and choose their next government.

With campaigns having officially ended, the ball is now in the hands of the voters – many of whom must be glad that the season of noise and abuses is over. It is my hope that there will be a respectable voter turn out so that Kenyans choose the leader that most people prefer to be in the State House. I also hope that neither side will do anything silly that would make the loser not accept the outcome and thus drag the country through a period of uncertainty.

The race is going to be tight. According to the polls, Raila and Kibaki are in a statistical tie for the presidential vote. A high voter turnout could swing it either way. The parliamentary races are also going to be hotly contested. Even Raila is not so sure about his Lang’ata seat. Other doubtables are Mudavadi and a host of other outgoing MPs in the city.

All in all may it all go well so that come the 28th of December all Kenyans can forget about their political differences and come together to work for a better united Kenya.

Uganda’s tenuous peace process

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It is almost certain that Vincent Otti, the second in command in the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), is dead. Those in the know say that Otti was executed by Kony’s lieutenants in a place called Garamba some time in October. For those in the dark, the LRA is a rebel movement in Northern Uganda led by Joseph Kony. The movement has been waging a bloody rebellion against the Kampala government for over two decades now without much success. In the process it has emerged as one of the most brutal rebel groups in the world – Kony’s army is an unprofessional brood of thuggish child soldiers whose training process included numbing done by forcing them to rape and/or kill their own relatives. Over the years, Kony and his soldiers developed a habit of cutting off the lips of civilians that refused to be part of the rebellion thus sending tens of thousands of Ugandans to internally displaced people’s (IDP) camps.

It therefore came as a relief when Kampala decided to talk to the rebels after realizing that an outright military victory was not possible because of the extent to which the war has been civilianized. President Museveni even set a deadline, 31st January 2008, as the date by which the talks should be concluded. But things might actually turn for the worse in light of the new developments within the LRA.

Although Kampala has not acknowledged it, the death of Otti may slow down the talks. It is no secret that Otti was the brain behind the rebellion. Kony, the leader, is a rather superstitious man who sees himself as a spiritual medium and thinks that Uganda should be ruled according to the Ten Commandments of the Bible. He is more at ease around his illiterate and equally superstitious child soldiers and 60 odd wives than at the negotiating table. Otti on the other hand was a less creepy (but equally murderous) fellow who from the early stages of the talks emerged as the chief spokesman for the LRA – this may be the reason why Kony decided to liquidate him since it became clear who the more rational commander between the two was.

All in all, the people of Acholi, and indeed the whole of Uganda want this peace process to go on as planned. Museveni should not let this war drag on any further. Northern Ugandans have suffered enough. And just for good measure, Kony should be tried for war crimes, even if the Acholi forgive him – as they claim to be ready to do under their customary practices. He chose this path himself when he decided to cut off peoples’ lips, rape women, burn down villages and use children as soldiers, and all this to the same Acholi people whose rights he claims to be fighting for.

equatorial guinea, where does the money go?

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Equatorial Guinea is the third largest oil producer in Africa, right after Nigeria and Angola. Equatorial Guinea also has just over half a million people. It therefore defies logic that this country should still have many of its people living in squalid conditions. This country ranks 121st out of 177 on the UN Human development Index, even though it has a per capita income (PPP)  of 50,200 (CIA Factbook) – only second to Luxembourg in the entire world! Why are many Equatorial Guineans still dirt poor, dying from treatable illnesses and ignorant? Where is Teodore Obiang Nguema Mbasogo taking all the oil money?

This is a shame to the continent and to Obiang and his cronies. It is high time African leaders became their own keepers and fostered a culture of intra-continental competition rather than their old-school collusion to steal all they can from the poor and dying, as is happening in this fabulously wealthy country. This is especially important now that the EU and the US – because of competition for resources with China – have decided, like the latter, to turn a blind eye to gross injustices like this one.

With a total population smaller than those of most African capitals, and with all the oil money, how hard can it be to keep track of everyone and ensure that all Equatorial Guineans are well fed, educated and healthy?

zuma victory a loss for africa

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Even Desmond Tutu, the Nobel Peace Price laureate dubbed as South Africa’s conscience during the apartheid years, could not persuade the delegates at the ANC Congress in Polokwane not to elect Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma as their party’s next president. The eminent Nelson Mandela opted to stay above the fray on this one, citing impartiality but may be also because he saw it as a foregone conclusion. The mistake that was Zuma’s election is the full responsibility of Thabo Mbeki. This is a man who throughout his presidency has remained aloof and insensitive to South African street and village talk. Even at the congress he found it proper to bore the crowd with a more than two hour long speech on policy issues instead of pandering to their populist instincts. This was a vote against Mbeki in the same vein that many reasonable people had hoped that it be a vote against Zuma.

The implication of a Zuma presidency for South Africa is an issue that South Africans will have to deal with themselves. It may even be (hopefully) the era that finally corrects the injustices of the apartheid period. What worries me is how his presidency will pan out in the wider region. Mbeki, like the Ghanaian Nkrumah, was a lousy president at home but a great pan-Africanist. He was a key architect of the African Union and the NEPAD initiative. Mbeki was also an ideologue – of the tempered kind that Africa woefully lacks – who took time to seriously think of solutions to Africa’s problems. Mbeki had the courage to dream of an African Renaissance even as poverty and underdevelopment still plague the continent.

Of course the wishes of the South African people should supersede those of other Africans when they choose their leaders. I am also glad that Zuma’s election happened in a democratic manner. Institutionalization of democracy within the ANC, as I have pointed out before, is important since it is this party that will be electing South Africa’s president for many years to come – barring any major break-up. This said, I think it is important to acknowledge that South Africa, being the regional hegemon, has considerable influence in Africa. Because of this, people in Harare, Dakar or Nairobi have a reason to care and think of how outcomes in South African politics affect them.

Zuma, a man without much formal education, lacks the intellectual abilities that Mbeki has exhibited ever since his heydays as an ANC exile. He has proven to be a populist and to the best of my knowledge has not shown much interest on the region as a whole. If he chooses to be a domestic leader, like he seems he will, his election will indeed end up being a loss to the African people who desperately need visionary continental leadership to correct the evils of poverty, disease, ignorance and bad leadership.  

the eritrean-ethiopian war, time for a settlement

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Eritrea has not known prolonged peace since the late Emperor Haile Selassie annexed it to make it Ethiopia’s 14th province in 1961. The country then had to endure through a 30 year war of independence that cost thousands of  lives and a lot of resources for both sides.

Relief came in 1991 with the ouster of Haile Selassie’s murderous successor, Mengistu Haile Mariam, in 1991. The new government chose not to continue laying claim on the region, even though it meant that Ethiopia would end up being landlocked. After a UN organized referendum, Eritrea declared its independence in 1993. But in 1998, war broke out again over disputed border territory. The war ended in a UN mediated truce in 2002 that handed most of the disputed territory to Eritrea. Naturally, Ethiopia failed to acknowledge this ruling and instead sent more troops to the volatile border region.

Right now, there are about 1700 UN peace keepers sandwiched between just below 300,000 Ethiopian and Eritrean troops. Each side is talking of the potential annihilation of the adversary if the situation ever degenerates into a full out war. There seems to be a real threat of a return of bloodshed, especially over areas like Badme and Baru. It is hard to imagine that just less than two decades ago the leaders of the two countries were allies in their guerilla struggle against the oppressive regime of Mengistu.

If an all out war breaks out, the real casualties will be the ordinary people on both sides of the border – most of whom have already lost loved ones or have been displaced in the previous wars. The onus is on the leaders of the two countries.  Prime Minister Zenawi and President Afewerki should not play around with their citizens’ lives just to assuage their egos. The land they are willing to sacrifice their countrymen for is a barren frying pan, to put it mildly.

As it stands the odds do not look good for Eritrea. With a population of 4.4 million and a struggling economy, it can ill-afford a war of attrition against Ethiopia with its 75 million strong population and a recent resurgence of US military support to fight extremists in the region. I have a bad feeling that if war breaks out again, the Ethiopians might just make good of their threat to drive the Eritreans into the Red Sea.

thoughts on africa’s population figures

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The other day I came across some stats that got me thinking. It is apparent that at the current rate of population growth, Africa’s population will double in the next half century (Even after having discounted for malaria and – according to the Economist – the over-estimated AIDS figures). This can either be a blessing or a curse.

It could be a blessing due to the fact the non-viability of some African states is because they are too sparsely populated and do not have big enough internal markets to support robust economies or generate enough revenue in terms of taxes to pay for effective government. Therefore, a big population would bring more good than harm. I am not saying that the solution to Africa’s poverty and lack of development is a higher population growth; I am just making the observation that populous Ethiopia is more viable as a sovereign state than huge but thinly populated Chad or Niger.

The negative effects, however, are more real and immediate. As it stands, Africa cannot feed its entire population – hence its current reliance on food imports and relief to meet the balance. Furthermore, due to rather dismal economic performance over the last four decades, the population growth rate has far outstripped economic growth. As a consequence, Africa is the only region in the world where per capita incomes have declined since the seventies. The ideal solution to this problem would be to simply increase the rate of economic growth to surpass that of population, but this cannot just be made possible with a magic wand. It will take time.

The situation therefore calls for a clear and well formulated population policy. If Africa is to take off economically and improve its deplorable average living standards, it has to arrest the high rate of population growth (continental average fertility is more than 5 children per woman, the world average is below 3). This need not be some China-like thing, I believe that with the right incentives to families and insistence on longer and better education of girls the situation can be changed. Studies have shown that, on average, better educated women tend to have fewer, healthier and better educated children.

In the future though, with proper planning, I think it is in the continent’s best interest to have a big population. By some estimates, Africa can support upwards of 1.5 billion people with its 28% arable land (China has 13%). A big and economically vibrant population will not only be invaluable in reducing the continent’s over-reliance on foreign trade (internal trade accounts for paltry 10%) but also for strategic security purposes.