Category Archives: News Analysis

isn’t it time we split this country up?

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One of the defining characteristics of a legitimate state is that it ought to have a monopoly over the use of violence. The army, the police and all physical security apparatus belong to the state. When a state cannot command enough authority and support to have this monopoly – for more than a decade – then the question of whether such a state is legitimate ought to be seriously considered.

The Democratic Republic of Congo is such a state. This central African country is the size of Western Europe but with an infrastructure that is probably worse than the Persians’ during the reign of Xerxes. Strictly speaking, the DRC has never been a cohesive nation-state. It began with Katanga secessonists right after independence. Mobutu’s kleptocracy barely held it together with an iron feast and bribes. With Kabila I came the chaos in the Kivus. Kabila II keeps losing battles to ethnic Rwandese rebels. Kinshasa’s control and political legitimacy does not extend to the Eastern region of the country.

So the big question is: Is the keeping of the territorial integrity of the DRC worth the 4 million lives and counting it has cost thus far? I say no. If Southern Sudan is anything to go by, sometimes partition can be the answer. It is almost certain that Southern Sudan will vote to secede in the forthcoming referendum. May be Eastern Congolese ought to be given this option as well. Kinshasa is very far from the Kivus – both literally and figuratively. The Easterners are closer (culturally and economically) to the Swahili speaking East Africans than the inhabitants of the Western parts of the country. It is and will always be very hard to forge a cohesive nation-state out of the mess that is the DRC.

So as I have stated before, Kabila II has two options. Either declare an all out war and defeat the rebels once and for all (I am no fan of rebel movements, regardless of their cause, and never will be) or agree to lose the Eastern part of the DRC. Eastern Congolese have had enough of this war of attrition. News that Gen. Nkunda has captured yet another vital army base just serve to confirm how weak Kinshasa is.  If you cannot fight for the East let it go, Kabila. Let it go!

time for the kenyan government to come clean on arms

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So this is turning into child play. It is out there, government of Kenya. Everybody knows that the arms are not for sure yours and that they might be destined for Southern Sudan in complete contradistinction to a UN embargo against selling arms to Sudan. Denying it only makes you look stupid and clueless. Give us facts and documents to back them. The other day I saw something that appeared to be an invoice on the BBC which was supposed to prove that the arms and tanks really are Southern Sudan’s.

Frankly, with Northern Sudan being crazy and the LRA continuing in their deranged rebellion in Northern Uganda, I think Southern Sudan should be armed to the teeth. If Kenya can help them do that so be it. We need to coddle up with them anyway – they have oil and we can permanently lock their dependence on our roads, railways and ports for trade. Not to mention our banks, schools and even to some extent the use of Swahili.

So I think we have no apologies to make to anyone. The US and the UN understand that Southern Sudan needs arms – to defend Abeyi and to keep the North in check. Plus they are going to be an independent country soon and so need a stable modern or pseudo modern army – I doubt if the Ukrainian tanks make that much of a difference on the military modernity scale. Alfred Mutua and the government of Kenya should stop acting like an embarrassed child caught with sugar all over his cheeks and own up. Yes we were transporting the arms to them, but it was all for a good cause.

On the other hand if the tanks are ours, well and good. Let’s produce the documents to back that up and demand an apology from the US ambassador to Kenya.

and on another note ….. perhaps to avoid any future embarrassments we should do something concrete about Somalia and their pirates. We need a regional initiative. Ethiopian invasions or Ugandan half-hearted peacekeeping will not take Somalis anywhere.

index of african governance

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Mohammed Ibrahim, the Sudanese money-man trying to give African leaders incentives to govern sanely, has this index of African states, indicating their performance on a variety of governance benchmarks. On the most important index (according to me) which is on the Rule of Law, Transparency and Corruption, the best performing country is Cape Verde, followed by Botswana (I was there last summer and I loved it!). Mauritius, South Africa, Seychelles, Namibia, Ghana, Lesotho and Senegal are also ranked highly on this index. For more information and to look at other indices visit Mo’s foundation website here.

Kudos to these high fliers when it comes to the rule of law. No civil society can exist without laws. Adherence to laws is the true mark of a civilized people. Man sets his own laws and everyone, by residing in any given country, implicitly consents to the laws of that country. So it is important that all people obey laws that they make for themselves. This is not too much to ask, is it?

The failures of most African countries can be directly attributed to the non-existence of the rule of law. It is Montesquieu who said that laws shape cultural mores just like cultural mores shape laws. With good laws we can inculcate in our citizens the virtues of orderliness and predictability. Predictability guarantees me that I will not be shafted by a judge when I am on the right. Predictability guarantees me that I will not be robbed of my property, and that even if that were to happen the law will be on my side. This is the pillar of civil society.

Unfortunately, this is something that is lacking in many an African country. Structural Adjustment Programmes, developement projects of all kinds and all manner of foreign intervention will not bring this to the continent. It is up to Africans to be honest with themselves and acknowledge that to be truly civilized is to obey your own laws. Not somebody else’s but your own laws. laws, laws laws.

equatorial guinea; a glaring symbol of stupidity on steroids

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Last year alone, according to the Bank of Cenral African States, Equatorial Guinea earned 4.3 billion dollars in oil revenue. This was about 90% of the country’s GDP.  This in a country of just over 600,000 souls. Last year’s World Bank estimates put the country’s per capita income at about 20,000 dollars. But don’t be fooled by this figure, more than 60% of the citizens of this tiny Central African country live on less than a dollar a day. It is estimated that the government has stashed more than 2 billion dollars in foreign accounts. Mr. Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, the president since 1979, is one very wealthy man.

Whenever I think about this country – among many other equally wealthy African countries – I ask myself: How hard can it be? How hard can it be to provide education for your people? How hard can it be to provide decent housing? How hard can it be to ensure that people are not starving? And all this while your treasuries are overflowing with cash. Of what use are the billions to Obiang and his friends if his country-people are starving? Don’t these men have a scintilla of pride? Doesn’t Mr. Obiang feel even a tinge of shame when he sees pictures of fly-infested faces of emaciated African children in the front pages of major world newspapers or book covers?

It is very frustrating. It is inexplicable. It makes you wonder whether these people are grown up men or children. It seems almost commonsensical that a country like Equatorial Guinea – small in size and with an abundance of oil – should never wallow in want. It takes a great deal of stupidity to plunge a whole 60% of the population in abject poverty with this much wealth. 600,000 Obiang. Just 600,000. You can keep track of every one of your citizens, providing for their basic needs and granting them a decent education, healthcare, housing and what not. Seriously. It is not rocket science.

these somali pirates must be stopped now

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As I whined about the resignation of Mbeki and the ineluctable ascendance of one Jacob Zuma to the most powerful position on the continent, the story of Somali pirates seizing a ship with militray cargo destined for Kenya made me even more worried. 33 tanks, among other military hardware, were on the Ukranian ship that was hijacked by pirates from Somalia while on international waters off the coast of the failed state in the horn of Africa.

These developments raise a very serious question. For how long will the world sit back and watch as a few greedy men with guns terrorize an entire country, killing innocent women and children and depriving them of a decent livelihood? So far the consensus has been that as long as the mess is confined within Somalia then everyone (save for Ethiopia and the CIA) would pretend that nothing is going on. But now there is an overflow. Tired of the boredom of pillaging within their borders the rag-tag bandits of Somalia have decided to extend their activities to the sea, routinely hijacking ships for ransome and booty. They need to be stopped.

These 21st century pirates need to be stopped not just in the sea but also within the borders of Somalia. It is imperative that countries within the wider East African region come up with a plan of solving Somalia’s problem once and for all instead of merely containing it, as seems to be the policy of the regional military powerhouse Ethiopia and the United States. Somalis are people too – just like the Kenyans or Ivorians who elicited much international sucpport in their times of crises – and need to be allowed to have an existence worthy of human beings. The last eighteen years have shown us that Somalis, on their own, cannot rid themselves of the dystopia that they’ve made of their country. The international community should – in a Rousseauian sense – impose peace and set in motion a more transparent re-education on government and institutions instead of the current puppet government arrangement. Sounds too optimistic to you? To the gainsayers I say it can be done. It can be done because the vast majority of Somalis want it to be done. An international intervention will not be an Iraq, not even a Somalia-’93.

after kenya, zimbabwe …. bad precedences?

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So the big news coming out of the continent today is the big signing of a deal between Robert Mugabe and his long-time foe Morgan Tsvangirai. The deal guarantees Tsvangirai, the legitimate winner of the last presidential elections in Zimbabwe, powers for the day to day running of the country while Mugabe still leads the military and the cabinet.

This deal is kind of the same that Kenyans adopted after the disputed presidential elections last December. While in Kenya’s case it wasn’t as clear as to who won the election, in Zimbabwe it was as clear as the springs of Nyandarua that Morgan Tsvangirai beat the senile Mugabe in the polls. The sharing of power with a political thief in the mold of Mugabe is an affront against democracy. The nature of democratic elections is that winners take it all. Losers should accept the results and wait for the next election cycle. This applies equally to incumbents and the opposition. I was mightily pleased with the poise by which UNITA handled its loss in the just concluded elections in Angola – although if you ask me I think they should pull up their socks and grants Angolans true democracy by being more competitive.

Anyway, as happy as I am for Zimbabweans, I hope this phenomenon – of presidents stealing elections and then appointing the real winners prime ministers – does not catch on on the continent. I hope that Kenya and Zimbabwe are the last to go through this weird electoral circus.

zuma wins another battle, more reason for africa to be afraid

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Jacob Zuma, the almost certain next president of the most powerful country in Africa, has just had a corruption case against him thrown out of court on the basis that it was politically motivated. While there might be some truth in this, it is still an affront on justice. There is no denying the fact that Zuma’s strategy all along has been one of intimidation of the South African justice system and me thinks that it is a travesty that this court bought into the politics argument against this case.

For the rule of law to prevail, there has to be a perception by all that no one is above the law. The exoneration of Zuma sends the wrong message. A message that political connections elevates one above the law. This is why, the leader of his youth wing is still running around threatening to kill people with impunity. Sad shame. And to think that in a few months this clown of a man who believes that showering after sex prevents aids infection will be the most powerful man in Africa just makes me sick. He is a populist and has absolutely no respect for the law. And worst of all, he may turn out to be the typical African leader – immensely loved by the masses but worth not even a bucket of spit in terms of policy and general vision for the country. Zuma supporters point to his popularity as a reason for his detractors to leave him alone – but they forget that Mugabe, Moi, al-Bashir, Zenawi and many other sub-grade African leaders were at one time populists in the mould of Zuma.

angola – another chance for democracy in africa

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The sunny optimism that greeted the democratic awakening in Africa in the early nineties may be nearing twilight but there is still hope. Even as states like Kenya, Zimbabwe and even Senegal waver in their quest for liberal democracy, there is still a sliver of hope in the likes of Angola – a former war zone which holds elections tomorrow.

Angola has been for some time one of the fastest growing countries in the world. It is Africa’s soon to be largest oil producer (mainly because the Nigerian behemoth can’t get its act together) and with the help of the Chinese has recently embarked on a mission to build infrastructure throughout the country. The wealth may not be evenly shared out, but the country as a whole is better off than it was a decade or so ago.

So it is really hopeful that they will be having elections tomorrow. Yes there will be problems. Dos Santos has all the power in Angola and will definitely not hold completely free and fair elections. But this is a start. A few times over and the Angolans will internalize voting as a human right and realize their duty and moral call to chart the way forward for themselves through the ballot.

I am almost certain that Dos Santos’ MPLA will win the Friday election. But UNITA should not give up. Democracy is as cultural as it is political. Their time will come. Get to parliament, constructively oppose the government and be the watch-dog for the people. And help spread the idea that Africans are and ought to be in charge of their lives. Not governments. Certainly not NGOs. Not the church. Not the West. But Africans. Africans in Angola, Africans in Sudan, Africans in all war-ravaged regions of the continent.

kenyan new aids figures, cause for concern

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Late last year I wrote a peace congratulating the Kenyan government and all those involved of having done a commendable job in reducing the HIV prevalence rate to 5.1%. But new figures out indicate that things are much worse than this. It turns out that the prevalence rate is 7.4% with about 1.4 million Kenyans between the ages of 15 and 64 infected.

Even more worrying is the fact that more than 83% of those infected do not know that they’ve been infected and less than half of them use condoms. The new figures also reported that 10% of married couples in Kenya are infected.

It goes without mention that this should sound an alarm among Kenyans. The truth needs to be put out there. It is true that Kenyan men, and to some extent women, are behaving badly. It is also true that they are not using condoms while at it.

What needs to be done is (I am no expert but this is sort of common sense):

1. The public should be educated bluntly about proper sexual behavior. There is no point in acting like people are not having indiscriminate sex while they are. Men especially should be constantly reminded that they should not be putting their families in danger by their bad habits.

2. Condoms. Condoms. Condoms. I don’t care what the church says. People are having sex. Abstinence is, I concede, the best prevention method. But what do you when people, in their fallibility cannot put down the natural urge to have sex? I say the government should avail condoms, not just to teenagers but to married men as well.

3. Empower women. Empower women. Empower women. Empowered women will be able to say no to unprotected sex. Empowered women will not be forced to have sex in exchange for food on the table for their children. Empowered women will raise well mannered, morally upright children who will not grow into deviants running around having indiscriminate sex.

EMPOWERED WOMEN WILL PROVIDE A SOUND FOUNDATION TO SOCIETY.

These are just three things that the government can do to prevent the figures rising further than 7.4%. They may seem sort of naive, but the truth is they are achievable. They are achievable if the folks in Nairobi behaved like the leaders they ought to be and strove at changing society – for this is part of leadership. Kenya and indeed African leaders can change the course of this terrible disease if they want to.

Some of them like our dear president have more than one wife (or some other hazy definition – partner, wife, concubine etc). What message are we sending to the young. When leaders are allowed to run around having illegitimate children we set a bad example. It should start with leaders having responsible sexual relations and then preaching to the masses to have responsible sexual relations.

Otherwise millions more will die. Millions more will be orphaned. And millions that could have been spent building roads and schools will instead be spent on funerals and health costs.

al-Bashir accused of war crimes and genocide in Darfur

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At last there is some international organisation with some spine. Although the practicality of this accusation is doubtful – nobody even dreams that al-Bashir, the genocidal president of Northern Sudan will ever appear in court for his crimes in Darfur and beyond – the symbolism behind it is powerful. It is powerful because it says it like it is. President al-Bashir’s mission in Darfur is genocidal and utterly criminal. Yes, he is is fighting rebels intent on dislodging him from power (and as I have stated before I am no sympathizer of rebel movements) but the way he is doing it in Darfur is not the right way.

The prosecutor of the international criminal court, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, brought the case against al-Bashir on account of the more than 300,000 deaths in Darfur over the last five years.

Again, al-Bashir may never see the inside of a cell in the Hague but it is a triumph for justice, or more appropriately, the quest for justice. Almost half a million have died and millions displaced while the international community ‘dillies and dallies’ about Sudan’s sovereignty. A nation forfeits its sovereignty the moment it starts butchering its own people. Period.

Omar Hasan Ahmad al-Bashir and his kind throughout Africa and the world should be made aware of the fact that there are people out there who are dedicated to bringing them to justice. As usual, I am disappointed by the AU’s reaction to all this. I am kind of curious as to how the more outspoken (radical) presidents on the continent – Senegal’s Wade, Botswana’s Khama and Rwanda’s Kagame – will react to this. I hope that they will continue in their commitment to telling it like it is, unlike their more defensive counterparts.

On a related note. I wish more Darfuri rebels and Janjaweed militia alike could also be brought to book because all three parties (the JEM rebels, janjaweed and the government of Northern Sudan) are causing untold suffering to innocent civilians in this war.

Kimunya exit a loss for kenya

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Politics is a dirty game. To that let me also add that all human beings made of bone and flesh are fallible. These two truisms proved their worth once again today when Kenya’s Finance Minister Amos Kimunya resigned in connection to the fraudulent sale of the corruption tainted Grand Regency Hotel.

Corruption accusations, whether valid or not have robbed Kenya of one of its better Ministers in the post-Moi era. Kimunya was, for the most part, a man of principle sprinkled with pragmatism. He is credited for having brought macroeconomic stability to the Kenyan economy and restoring some sanity in the formulation of the government’s monetary policies. Most of all he is the man who was at the helm when Kenya had its best annual growth rate outside the first two decades of independence.

Most of his political detractors may have taken mileage out of the Grand Regency saga but the true loser in this case is not Mr. Kimunya but the Kenyan economy. Yes the man may have erred but by throwing him out we risk discontinuity in the setting of the economic agenda, which besides security, is the most important function of any self respecting government.

I am not saying tha there are no more Kimunyas out there or that corruption in any form should be tolerated. All I am saying is that the chances of our next Finance Minister being as successful as Amos Kimunya was are pretty slim. Most of our cabinet ministers are total clowns – I picture Kajwang singing and dancing on tv, Martha Karua with her vitriol etc etc. To me, Kimunya was one of the most level headed cabinet members and his loss is a real shame.

Un shame, shame shame

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The news reports are shocking and disgusting. In a report published by Save the Children, a British charity, it has emerged that UN peacekeepers in conflict zones have been abusing children as young as six. Yes six years old! After interviewing about 250 boys and girls, Save the Children found that UN peacekeepers were in the habit of exchanging soap, money, food and sometimes cell phones for sex. The interviews were conducted in Cote d’Ivoire, Haiti and Southern Sudan. The UN chief Ban Ki-Moon promised that an investigation will be conducted and that those found guilty will be punished.

What a shocker. The thought that the people entrusted with the task of bringing hope and peace to these regions are the very ones causing physical and psychological harm to children is simply despicable. This scandal also exposes the UN for the opaque bureaucracy that it is. How could this have gone on without the knowledge of New York? Don’t they have independent observers monitoring their aid missions to ensure that staff stick to the code of conduct?

If the investigation takes place as has been promised by Ban and these peacekeepers are found guilty, their punishment alone won’t be enough. The UN should compensate the families of the children that were abused. And in the future New York should keep a closer eye on its staff on peace keeping missions.

Finally, in order to avoid the mess all together, African and other similarly backward and inept governments should get their act together. It is the shocking inability of these governments to run their countries that necessitates the presence of UN peacekeepers in the first place. Perhaps the UN should have a clause stating that once a country has had peacekeepers for more than a given period of time then it should be put under a sort of “receivership.” It wouldn’t be re-colonization – as many nationalists in these countries would be quick to point out. It would be an attempt at bringing normal lives to people who’ve not lived normal lives for decades and who shouldn’t go hungry, remain ignorant and finally die because of the greed of some pin-head War Lords.

xenophobia in south africa

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The images were heart wrenching. Seeing the body of a supposed immigrant on the ground, partly burnt and bleeding made me wonder what got into South Africans this past week. Apparently their excuse for killing and chasing away immigrants is that the foreigners took away their jobs and are fuelling rising crime rates.

But who exactly are the criminals here? I’d say it is the mobs that are necklacing foreigners and burning down their houses and business establishments.  And who exactly is responsible for the lack of jobs? Is it really the immigrants, some of whom have created jobs – like the Kenyan whose supermarket was razed? I would say it is Thabo Mbeki and his men. These are the people that have over the years allowed the immigrants into South Africa to begin with and have failed to create a vibrant economy that provides for all south africans. They are the ones to blame and not innocent Zims and other (Southern) Africans fleeing poverty and tyranny back in their home countries.

And in other stories, I read that there were lynchings of witches in Western Kenya. It is shocking that this type of thinking still exists in people’s heads. African governments still have a long way to go in instilling the rule of law and rational-legal attitudes in their people. It is extremely sad that almost none of them realise just how much they need to do to change the lives of their people and put them on the path to true modernity – the African way.

time to do away with weak african governments

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Northern Sudan’s government just got its nose bloodied bad. And this by a bunch of rag tag rebels from the dusty deserts out West fighting with machine guns mounted on the back of pick up trucks. These rebels, previously confined to Darfur and other hot spots finally made an attempted march to the seat of power in Khartoum. Sudan’s skirmishes with its rebel movements brought memories of yet another African government that was nearly toppled by a bunch of bandits on pick up trucks – Chad. In Chad’s case France came to the rescue. Sudan seems to have taken care of the rebels using its own helicopter gunships and other weapons bought from the Chinese in exchange for oil.

As I have stated before, I have no sympathies for rebel movements, regardless of what their cause might be. It is in a large part because of these movements that most of Africa has remained underdeveloped because resources were shifted to fighting useless wars instead of focusing on the advancement of African people. Violent uprising will never solve any problem. Somalia, the DRC, Burundi and many others are testaments to this fact.

That said, I also think that certain African governments that are too weak to hold their own against rebels and other armed groups should be allowed to die a Darwinian death. When rebels drive for miles to the capital without being stopped by the existing government, you know there is a problem. Why did Khartoum wait for the rebels to reach Omdurman before doing anything?

Khartoum’s genocidal strongman ought to be embarrassed enough to realise that he cannot stop the insurgency in Darfur by killing the rebels and dropping bombs on innocent women and children. This week’s incident has proven that there cannot be a military solution to the rebel problem. The government of Sudan has been exposed as unable to hold its own against these rebels and therefore they have to negotiate with them and perhaps even meet some of the demands of the JEM led rebels.

world food shortages, is it time to rethink ethanol use?

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Africa’s food security is under threat; and this time it is not the usual threat caused by poor planning and the use of pre-modern agrarian technologies. This new threat is a result of the continuing rise in world food prices. Already the world food program (WFP) is predicting that this year it will be US $ 500 million short in trying to meet the needs of tens of millions worldwide who depend on it for food. These new developments are especially bad for Africa.

Millions of Africans depend on food aid. And this is not restricted to areas of conflict like Somalia, Sudan and Chad. Even relatively stable countries like Kenya and Zambia regularly need international donors to fill the gap left by ever-declining national agricultural output. As food prices go up and the international donors cut budgets, these countries will be in for even greater shortages.

Which brings me to the topic of this post. It is apparent that the world’s obsession with ethanol might be driving up food prices. This situation has been exacerbated by the rising oil prices due to Chinese and Indian demand and middle Eastern politics. The end result is that expensive grain (brought about by the fact that stomachs are competing with fuel tanks) has become even more expensive due to high transportation costs.

While controlling the price of oil might be difficult (middle eastern politics remain as muddy as ever), I believe the world can control how much food is diverted to the production of fuels. I understand the noble objective of saving the planet through the use of green energy. But I am totally against the idea that this can be done at the expense of developing nations and their millions of hungry people.

It is common knowledge that food deficiency causes stuntedness – both physical and mental – in children and that this persists into adulthood. This is what we shall be doing to humanity if we do not prioritise between endangered animals and humans.

Therefore, before we go all out on ethanol, we should make sure that humans are fed and healthy. For what is the use of saving the planet only to leave it to stunted offspring whom we failed to feed when they were young? Also, I think that WFP should aim at coordinating world food production so that nations like the US which perennially produce excess food can sell grain, at subsidized prices, to poorer, less advanced nations instead of destroying it to keep prices steady.

Most importantly, African agriculture should be pushed into the 21st century. Food production in most of Africa remains pre-10,000 BC. Farmers depend on rain even in places with giant perennial rivers that could be harnessed for iriigation. While appreciating the value of metis and fork knowledge, I believe that more science is needed to improve food production.  Simple scientific agriculture is not rocket science and the knowledge can be disseminated at a reasonable cost in order to improve agricultural output on the continent.

Food production was one of the main drivers of human civilisation. We are thus only as civilised as we are able to feed ourselves.