chadian rebels finally routed

Chad, like most of central Africa, is a sad story. After days of fighting, reports indicate that the government of Idriss Deby – possibly with some help from the French – has managed to to repel rebels from the capital and gain “total control.” The question is, for how long? This was the second time in a few years that the rebels had marched into the capital and threatened to topple Deby. This was also a confirmation that the government of Chad remains weak and unable to provide security, let alone development programmes, for its own people.

The story of Chad is a story that is repeated many times on the continent of Africa. You always have very weak governments that are unable to provide the most basic of public goods to their people but that are propped up by the West- the French being the number one culprits here. The French were friends with Bokassa and Mobutu, among other francophone-African dictators who brought much suffering to their own people while maintaining strong ties to Paris and having frequent state visits to the Elysee. The opposition to these weak governments is also just as weak. The many rebels movements fighting silly wars of greed devoid of any ideological significance are too weak to win. Instead they put their countrymen through wars of attrition that keep them forever stagnant in pre-modern subsistence existence. The same applies for Political opposition parties. Think of Zimbabwe. Everyone wants Mugabe out, except Tsvangirai and Mutambara – the two men who have refused to join forces within the MDC in order to unseat Bob.

More than two decades after Achebe wrote about it in Nigeria, the trouble with Africa still remains simply and squarely a problem of leadership. There is nothing inherently wrong with Africa or the African people. The only strange thing about Africa is its ability to keep churning out more Mobutus, Bokassas and Amins and very few Mandelas.

Going back to Chad…… may be it is a good thing that Deby is still president. However, deep down I think that that Africans should think hard about their many weak and unviable states. The DRC, Somalia and many states in the Sahel some to mind. If these countries cannot get their act together they should be left to the mercy of “evolution of states” so that in the end we can have states that are viable and able to provide for their people and not kleptocracies that only benefit their leaders’ kinsmen and a few multinational corporations.

zimbabwe opposition a let down

You would imagine that with a president like one Robert Mugabe the Zimabwean opposition would do anything in their capacity to have him out of power. But you would be wrong. This power hungry lot (yes, this is what I think of them) has refused to come up with a coalition against Mugabe. Their leaders, Tsvangirai and Mutambara, have confirmed that talks between their rival MDC factions have “broken down irretrievably” – according to the BBC.

A divided MDC almost certainly guarantees the aging Mugabe a win in the March polls. Meanwhile, ordinary Zimbabweans continue to live their lives under the yoke of the wayward economic practices that the world has come to know the Mugabe administration for. Mugabe’s bad economics has also been served with a touch of human rights abuses and lack of respect for the rule of law. It is really shocking to imagine how he manages to get re-elected.

Tsvangirai and Mutambara owe it to their countrymen and women to form a united front if they really want to unseat Mugabe. They have no business running separate campaigns in March because this will guarantee the presidency to Mugabe. Knowing African leaders (yes, I think after all that has happened on the continent from Senegal to Somalia and Chad to South Africa I can make this generalization, but I digress) I don’t think these two power hungry men will let their egos and quest for personal aggrandizement take the back seat and let the plight of their countrymen and women take the front seat.

Sadly, this is yet another case of African leaders lacking true leadership. It also paints a bad picture of both Tsvangirai and Mutambara and makes one doubt whether these two really want to end the bad governance that we’ve come to associate with Bob or whether they just want to perpetuate the same old practices of rent-seeking, cronyism and over-the-roof inflations rates – but may be with less human rights abuses and the jailing of opposition supporters. Even this is questionable, after seeing what Kenya has turned into following the “bad” years of Moi rule. African leaders just have a way of making you look back and shock yourself by wishing you had the likes of Moi in power.

If Tsvangirai and Mutambara care about their international reputation thy ought to unite. Otherwise many reasonable people will question their vision for Zimbabwe and indeed their commitment to ousting Mugabe and bettering the lives of millions of hungry, sick and illiterate Zimbabweans.

when will africa get it right?

A few months ago, after the Nigerian election, I read a piece in a leading international newspaper that said that Africa had yet again failed at democracy. The article infuriated me because it was a blanket write off of the entire continent as being undemocratic. I thought about Kenya, Senegal and Botswana as viable democracies that were capable of holding free and fair elections and which had freedom of the press.

But then Kenya happened. A country that was largely peaceful and with prospects of becoming a middle income country in the next decade and a half suddenly imploded and descended into never-before seen chaos. An election was stolen by a man who was viewed as one of the better behaved presidents on a continent infested with autocrats and dictators.

How, after all this, can we convince the world that Nigeria, Zimbabwe, the CAF, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan, Somalia, Chad, the DCR and all the others are isolated incidents? How are we going to convince ourselves that we are capable of running peaceful and prosperous countries when all that exist around us are chaos and murderous wars? Total failure?

It is true that countries like Botswana and Senegal still remain stable and democratic and also headed towards economic prosperity. South Africa is also doing quite well, although I am holding my breath to see what a Zuma presidency has in store for us. But the rest of the countries either have wars, or some form of instability and those that are peaceful have poverty rates that are utterly inhuman, to put it mildly.

It is extremely vital for the continent not to let a working model like Kenya sink into the same pit that has the Somalias of the continent. This is because many countries in East Africa depend on Kenya for their own economic success. A failed Kenya would mean no hope for Somalia and serious problems for Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Southern Sudan, Eastern DCR and Northern Tanzania. A failed Kenya will also mean a serious blow to the spread of democracy on the continent and especially East Africa. Besides Tanzania, Kenya was the only other democracy in the region. Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi all have autocrats who would happily use Kenya as an excuse for them to stay in power.

kenyan talks collapse, more violence expected

Kenya seems to be headed for more chaos as talks between the government and the main opposition party over disputed elections collapsed on Thursday. The opposition then reacted to this by announcing three days of street protests throughout the country in an attempt to force the government to resign.

The government is yet to react to the call for fresh protests. Last time the opposition tried to go to the streets they were met by paramilitary officers with clubs and water canons. A few were shot dead in the Western cities of Kisumu and Eldoret, the hot beds of opposition support.

By refusing to allow mediation to work, the two leaders in the midst of the current chaos, Kibaki and Raila, risk plunging this former oasis of peace on the continent of Africa into yet another failed African state. The economy has lost more than a billion dollars since December 27th and the stock market continues to record losses – five percent of its value has already been wiped off thanks to the violence.

True to a Swahili proverb, when two elephants fight its the grass that suffers – as Kibaki and Raila lock horns in their struggle for power it is the ordinary poor Kenyans that are feeling the pinch, more than anyone else. Prices have shot up since violence erupted in late December and more than 500 people have died already. A panel of mediators led by former UN secretary general Kofi Annan is expected into the country to try and mediate a settlement between Raila and Kibaki. The government has already shown its unwillingness to cooperate by insisting that the country needs no mediators as it is not in a state of war.

beyond the chaos, kenya and its institutions

Who would have thought back in 2002 that it was under a Kibaki presidency that Kenya would experience violence and chaos of the magnitude being reported in the news? Who would have guessed that Kibaki, the gentleman of Kenyans politics, would be the one being accused (whether justly or not) of rigging elections and trying to unlawfully hang onto power?

As Kenyans deliberate among and within themselves on the way forward, it is important to reflect on the causes of the existing mayhem and establish some truths. At the risk of sounding too simplistic, I am of the opinion that the existing anarchy in Kenya is as a result the lack of strong, impersonal institutions.

The lack of strong institutions handed the country a compromised electoral commission, full of appointees of the same person running for re-election. It was always obvious who the commissioners would side with in the event of a disputed outcome as was seen last Sunday. It therefore came as no surprise that while admitting that there were irregularities and suspicious figures on the tallying sheets, the commission did not order a recount or complete audit but proceeded to declare the president the winner base on the same questionable figures.

The lack of a culture of independent institutionalism has also made the opposition wary to present their case in the Kenyan high court, yet another institution teeming with the president’s appointees. In fact it is this lack of faith in the judiciary that left Kenyans no alternative but to resort to justice by the masses, which has unfortunately been laced with rioting, murder, ethnic confrontations and looting.

As the politicians get ready to have dialogue and possibly come up with a power sharing arrangement, on top of the agenda should be a clear and genuine commitment to the creation of impersonal institutions that will serves Kenyans well. It is of paramount importance that Kenyans develop confidence in the country’s institutions in order to avert situations when citizens take the law into their own hands – as we are witnessing now.

 

It is also important for Kenyans to realize that they cannot afford to take the back seat and let the politicians “institutionalize” tribalism. Kenyans should unite in their opposition to ethnic polarization because the country needs all its citizens in its quest for economic and social development. The just concluded elections have shown that it is quite possible for Kenyans of different ethnicities to come together for a common cause. Wananchi should be proud of this fact and not let the politicians take it away from them.

urgent need to convene the Kenyan parliament

Kenya remains without a parliament even as violence threatens to shred to pieces this once stable land in East Africa. The president is holed up in State House and is yet to issue a statement on the way forward, besides the chest thumping rhetoric about the ability of the security forces to deal with the post-election violence that has led to more than 300 deaths and displacement of more than 100,000 Kenyans (According to the Kenyan Red Cross).

As things stand, there is no avenue for dialogue between the government and the main opposition party that believes it wont the election but was denied victory by the government through rigging. This situation calls for the immediate swearing in of the new members of parliament in order to provide an arena for debate and dialogue on the way forward for Kenya.

The opposition should strongly consider using parliament to oust the president, if indeed they cannot stand his presidency for another five years. With 45% of the votes in parliament, and with cracks beginning to show within the president’s party, the opposition might be able to garner the more than 50% of votes needed to vote the government out of power in a vote of no confidence.

Parliamentary debate will also create the impression that something is being done about the situation and therefore lower tension in the country. Right now there seems to be an impasse and this is contributing to the rising tension all over the country.

It is very saddening that Kibaki and Raila remain obstinate and hell bent on plunging Kenya into an abyss of violence and barbarism. Kenyans should see these two leaders for who they really are – power hungry men with not much love for their country. Why are they still setting pre-conditions for dialogue when the country is flirting with the possibility of an all out civil war? Why haven’t they issued a joint statement condemning the violence and destruction of property?

As ordinary poor Kenyans die and lose their property, the real culprits – those who stole the election and those that are not willing to compromise for the country’s sake – continue to live near to normal lives without the food and fuel shortages that are beginning to further exacerbate Kenyans’ misery. This madness has to stop.

the anarchy in kenya begins to affect the region

Over the years, Kenya has emerged as the political and economic Mecca in East and Central Africa. It is therefore not surprising that the region is already feeling the effect of the current political crisis that has almost brought Kenya to its knees. Most of the countries in the region import goods from and/or through Kenya.

Reports from Uganda already indicate a rise in fuel prices and there is fear that more shortages and price hikes are to follow. Uganda imports nearly all of its fuel through Kenya. Kenya is also the region’s biggest exporter of manufactured goods. The raging violence has shut down businesses and factories and there are virtually no vehicles on the major highways. With the Kenyan economy in limbo, the region’s economic stability remains severely threatened.

It all seems unreal that Kenyans, who for decades have hosted refugees from all its neighbors, are now fleeing their own country to seek refuge in places like Uganda and Tanzania. Only time will tell how the region will respond to the increasingly alarming refugee situation. About 80,000 Kenyans have already been displaced from their homes. If the situation is not arrested soon, instability in Kenya will most likely spread to other countries in the region – most likely Eastern Uganda and Northern Tanzania.

Kenya’s decent to chaos will also be a big blow to the prospects for democracy on the continent of Africa. Before the post-election eruption of violence, Kenya had been seen by many African countries as a model of democracy and stability. Kenya also played a big role in bringing peace to troubled areas like Southern Sudan and Somalia. It is therefore in the region’s interest that Kenya remains stable and peaceful.

As a Kenyan editorial peace put it today, “It is unbelievable foolishness for Kenyans to destroy their economy, their homes and their entire way of life in the name of politics.” Peace and stability should be put before everything else not just for Kenyans’ sake but for the sake of the entire region as well.

more violence expected at tomorrow’s odm rally in Kenya

The main opposition party in Kenya, ODM, has announced that it will go ahead with its scheduled protest rally tomorrow in Nairobi in defiance of a government ban on all political rallies. Kenya has in the last three days witnessed the worst kind of violence in its 44-year history due to disputed results of the just concluded presidential election.

The government insists that the incumbent won while the main opposition party believes that they were unjustly denied victory through rigging. Observers, both local and international, and the electoral commission of Kenya have said that there were irregularities in the tallying of results and that this might have influenced the outcome of the polls.

Opposition leader Raila Odinga said on Wednesday that his party will not relent in its quest to have Kibaki resign. He also set this as a pre-condition for any level of dialogue between him and the president.

And to complicate matters further, the head of the electoral commission said Wednesday that he doesn’t know who won last Thursday election and that he announced the results while under duress from the government.

As the politicians remain stubborn and unwilling to resolve the impasse, ordinary Kenyans are the ones bearing the brunt of the stalemate. The death toll this far is believed to be over 300 and property worth millions of shillings destroyed. Shops remain closed and those that have opened ran out of supplies as people rushed in to stock up.

Thrusday’s opposition rally will be a real test for both sides of the political divide and may determine the course of events in this formerly peaceful and stable country in East Africa.

Many concerned Africans have expressed shock and disappointment as one of the rare working models of democracy and economic development on the continent goes up in flames infront of their eyes. The African Union president John Kofuor of Ghana is scheduled to jet into the country on Thursday to try and mediate between the president and his opposition rival.

Death toll continues to rise in church arson incident

I just read a most shocking story about over 50 Kenyans (mostly innocent women and children) having died after the church they had sought refuge in was burnt by an angry mob protesting against the government over their country’s flawed elections. This story is shocking not just because of the tragic loss of lives but also because of the heavily loaded symbolism that it had – the burning of a church.

Kenyans are a very religious lot and the fact that people are angry enough to burn churches should set off alarming bells everywhere. Do Kenyans really want to take this road? Is it really worth it? When is it going to stop after we start burning each other up in places of worship and are divided on ethnic lines?

There is an urgent need for the Kenyan leadership to slow down events. Things have been happening quite fast since the elections on the 27th of Dec and nobody seems to be in control anymore. The government spokesman was crazy enough the other day to say that the violence was isolated…….. Kisumu, Eldoret, Nairobi, Nakuru and Mombasa are not isolated incidents, Mr. Mutua. The only person you are fooling is yourself.

kenya, quickly degenerating into an African statistic

Achebe hit the nail on the head when he said that the trouble with Nigeria (and by extension Africa) was simply and squarely one of leadership. Nowhere else in the world has leadership failed the people more than on the continent of Africa. African leaders, whether dictators or otherwise, have proven to be the most inept and ideologically bankrupt lot the world has ever known.

The unfolding situation in Kenya is a glaring example of leadership that is devoid of any consideration for the common man. There is an East African proverb that says ‘when two elephants fight it is the grass that suffers.’ This proverb couldn’t be closer to the truth. It is the poor Kenyans living in slums and rural areas that are suffering and dying while the upper class watch the grim situation on international tv stations from the safety of their well protected homes.

Kibaki and Raila, the two men at the centre of the disputed elections, should act like the statesmen they claim to be and resolve the dispute as soon as possible in order to avert further loss of life and property. Estimates indicate that the Kenyan economy is losing billions of shillings everyday due to the violence and looting that is being witnessed nearly all over the country. These two men should stop playing around with the lives of 37 million Kenyans by being conceited and unidimensional in their quest for power.

The elections had irregularities, no doubt about that. But is this the best way of dealing with it? Did more than 200 Kenyans have to die just because Kibaki and Raila cannot down size their egos and come to a compromise? Do these two men realise that Kenya will still be around even after they are both dead and buried?

As many Kenyan politicians have been quick to point out, the country is more important than individuals. Kibaki and Raila should realise this if Kenya is to be Kenya – a country that has remained peaceful and democratic even as most of its neighbors were up in flames or under the yoke of dictatorships.

Uganda’s tenuous peace process

It is almost certain that Vincent Otti, the second in command in the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), is dead. Those in the know say that Otti was executed by Kony’s lieutenants in a place called Garamba some time in October. For those in the dark, the LRA is a rebel movement in Northern Uganda led by Joseph Kony. The movement has been waging a bloody rebellion against the Kampala government for over two decades now without much success. In the process it has emerged as one of the most brutal rebel groups in the world – Kony’s army is an unprofessional brood of thuggish child soldiers whose training process included numbing done by forcing them to rape and/or kill their own relatives. Over the years, Kony and his soldiers developed a habit of cutting off the lips of civilians that refused to be part of the rebellion thus sending tens of thousands of Ugandans to internally displaced people’s (IDP) camps.

It therefore came as a relief when Kampala decided to talk to the rebels after realizing that an outright military victory was not possible because of the extent to which the war has been civilianized. President Museveni even set a deadline, 31st January 2008, as the date by which the talks should be concluded. But things might actually turn for the worse in light of the new developments within the LRA.

Although Kampala has not acknowledged it, the death of Otti may slow down the talks. It is no secret that Otti was the brain behind the rebellion. Kony, the leader, is a rather superstitious man who sees himself as a spiritual medium and thinks that Uganda should be ruled according to the Ten Commandments of the Bible. He is more at ease around his illiterate and equally superstitious child soldiers and 60 odd wives than at the negotiating table. Otti on the other hand was a less creepy (but equally murderous) fellow who from the early stages of the talks emerged as the chief spokesman for the LRA – this may be the reason why Kony decided to liquidate him since it became clear who the more rational commander between the two was.

All in all, the people of Acholi, and indeed the whole of Uganda want this peace process to go on as planned. Museveni should not let this war drag on any further. Northern Ugandans have suffered enough. And just for good measure, Kony should be tried for war crimes, even if the Acholi forgive him – as they claim to be ready to do under their customary practices. He chose this path himself when he decided to cut off peoples’ lips, rape women, burn down villages and use children as soldiers, and all this to the same Acholi people whose rights he claims to be fighting for.

equatorial guinea, where does the money go?

Equatorial Guinea is the third largest oil producer in Africa, right after Nigeria and Angola. Equatorial Guinea also has just over half a million people. It therefore defies logic that this country should still have many of its people living in squalid conditions. This country ranks 121st out of 177 on the UN Human development Index, even though it has a per capita income (PPP)  of 50,200 (CIA Factbook) – only second to Luxembourg in the entire world! Why are many Equatorial Guineans still dirt poor, dying from treatable illnesses and ignorant? Where is Teodore Obiang Nguema Mbasogo taking all the oil money?

This is a shame to the continent and to Obiang and his cronies. It is high time African leaders became their own keepers and fostered a culture of intra-continental competition rather than their old-school collusion to steal all they can from the poor and dying, as is happening in this fabulously wealthy country. This is especially important now that the EU and the US – because of competition for resources with China – have decided, like the latter, to turn a blind eye to gross injustices like this one.

With a total population smaller than those of most African capitals, and with all the oil money, how hard can it be to keep track of everyone and ensure that all Equatorial Guineans are well fed, educated and healthy?