Category Archives: African Economies

three cheers to Tutu

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Finally someone is saying something that can move things a bit in Zimbabwe. The Nobel laureate, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, has called for the arrest or forceful ouster of Mugabe if he does not resign ang go home – or wherever he wants. Right now Harare’s people are faced with a cholera epidemic in the wake of total economic collapse. You know we have come to think of Zimbabwe as a failed state but it was not that long ago – even though Rob’s madness had already began then – that this country had great prospects. Zimbabwe could have been great. It still can, if someone acts now.

Which reminds me of the other day in a class on International Aid that I am taking. We were talking about humanitarian intervention and international law. Repeatedly, respect for sovereignty came up as a reason to not intervene in places like Somalia, Chad, Central African Republic, Zimbabwe, the DRC and all the other near failed states on the continent. Now I know there is no money to intervene in all these places. But we don’t need to. All we need is to set a precedent in one African country. A precedent that you cannot get away with killing or starving your own people. A precedent that you cannot get away with stealing your people’s money like Obiang’ and all the thieves in leadership positions are doing across the continent. Then everyone will think twice before they rig elections, kill innocent people or steal money out of state coffers.

Africans need to realise that they are in the only region of the world that still remains objectified. The only region that has not risen up to claim local agency in its history. Latin America, East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa – all former colonies of Western Europe – have risen up to become actors in world history in their own right. The Chinese have a giant economy. South East Asia has considerable clout too. India has the atom bomb and massive amounts of top notch human resources. The Middle East is managing its oil and transforming the desert. Latin America is a middle income region by all means. And Western Europe and its off shoots continues to be ahead of everyone else – this is purely a historical accident and should not be imputed to anything else (read Jared Diamond).

Africa on the other hand remains to be the poster child of failure. Soon enough we shall be receiving aid from the Indians and the Mexicans and the Brazilians and may be some day even the Afghanis. Why don’t African leaders see what they are doing to the African people and their collective consciousness? Why don’t they see how detrimental to future generations of Africans their actions are? Why don’t they seem to mind the fact that when one says Africa or Africans the first things that come to people’s minds are Aids, Poverty, Hunger, Disease, and all manner of evils. Why?

The middle East has dictators. Pinochet was a dictator, but not a mindless buffoon like Samuel Doe, or Amin or Mugabe. Suharto was a corrupt thief, but not the moron that was Abacha. Why I ask. Why can’t any of our leaders, dictators or not get anything right? Why?

africa continues to be myopic and ready for the picking

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So I keep reading stories about foreign governments like China, the Gulf States and South Korea that are planning on buying millions of acres of Africa’s arable land in order to provide food security for their citizens. From what I gather, most African governments are eager to sell 100 year leases in order to make a quick buck and then for 100 years condemn their countrymen and women to being near-slaves to foreigners in their own countries. How more stupid can our leaders get?

As a continent, Africa is the most food insecure place on the planet. Millions depend on food aid, even in supposedly more developed countries like Ghana, Kenya and Senegal. Some countries like Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and nearly all of the Francophone Sahel have never known food security for decades. They have been permanent recipients of aid from the US and the World Food Program. It makes you wonder why it is not these governments making deals with their fellow African countries to guarantee the continent some food security.

Food production is what propelled human civilization. Mesopotamia, the Indus-Gangetic Valley, the Nile Valley, were all organised with an aim of improving food production so as to free up talent for other more meaningful human endeavors. Africa, nearly 12,000 years later, still cannot afford to feed its own people. It is not a question of land or water. The great lakes regions can feed the entire continent and still have a surplus. With the exception of the South West African countries and the Sahelian states, all of Sub-Saharan African countries ought to be food-secure. The fact that they are not is simply and squarely because of poor leadership.

And now these same inadequate leaders want to sell the land to foreigners. I am assuming that when foreign governments buy land they’ll treat it like they do with their embassies – provide their own security and run the show by their own rules. I wonder how different this will be from an outright recolonization of the African continent by more developed and better run countries.

We are still in the woods. And we are screwed for the foreseeable future. Like it is not even funny anymore. Our Mugabes, Obiangs and Zenawis continue to fail us big time. How hard can it be to run a country? Like seriously.

index of african governance

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Mohammed Ibrahim, the Sudanese money-man trying to give African leaders incentives to govern sanely, has this index of African states, indicating their performance on a variety of governance benchmarks. On the most important index (according to me) which is on the Rule of Law, Transparency and Corruption, the best performing country is Cape Verde, followed by Botswana (I was there last summer and I loved it!). Mauritius, South Africa, Seychelles, Namibia, Ghana, Lesotho and Senegal are also ranked highly on this index. For more information and to look at other indices visit Mo’s foundation website here.

Kudos to these high fliers when it comes to the rule of law. No civil society can exist without laws. Adherence to laws is the true mark of a civilized people. Man sets his own laws and everyone, by residing in any given country, implicitly consents to the laws of that country. So it is important that all people obey laws that they make for themselves. This is not too much to ask, is it?

The failures of most African countries can be directly attributed to the non-existence of the rule of law. It is Montesquieu who said that laws shape cultural mores just like cultural mores shape laws. With good laws we can inculcate in our citizens the virtues of orderliness and predictability. Predictability guarantees me that I will not be shafted by a judge when I am on the right. Predictability guarantees me that I will not be robbed of my property, and that even if that were to happen the law will be on my side. This is the pillar of civil society.

Unfortunately, this is something that is lacking in many an African country. Structural Adjustment Programmes, developement projects of all kinds and all manner of foreign intervention will not bring this to the continent. It is up to Africans to be honest with themselves and acknowledge that to be truly civilized is to obey your own laws. Not somebody else’s but your own laws. laws, laws laws.

equatorial guinea; a glaring symbol of stupidity on steroids

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Last year alone, according to the Bank of Cenral African States, Equatorial Guinea earned 4.3 billion dollars in oil revenue. This was about 90% of the country’s GDP.  This in a country of just over 600,000 souls. Last year’s World Bank estimates put the country’s per capita income at about 20,000 dollars. But don’t be fooled by this figure, more than 60% of the citizens of this tiny Central African country live on less than a dollar a day. It is estimated that the government has stashed more than 2 billion dollars in foreign accounts. Mr. Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, the president since 1979, is one very wealthy man.

Whenever I think about this country – among many other equally wealthy African countries – I ask myself: How hard can it be? How hard can it be to provide education for your people? How hard can it be to provide decent housing? How hard can it be to ensure that people are not starving? And all this while your treasuries are overflowing with cash. Of what use are the billions to Obiang and his friends if his country-people are starving? Don’t these men have a scintilla of pride? Doesn’t Mr. Obiang feel even a tinge of shame when he sees pictures of fly-infested faces of emaciated African children in the front pages of major world newspapers or book covers?

It is very frustrating. It is inexplicable. It makes you wonder whether these people are grown up men or children. It seems almost commonsensical that a country like Equatorial Guinea – small in size and with an abundance of oil – should never wallow in want. It takes a great deal of stupidity to plunge a whole 60% of the population in abject poverty with this much wealth. 600,000 Obiang. Just 600,000. You can keep track of every one of your citizens, providing for their basic needs and granting them a decent education, healthcare, housing and what not. Seriously. It is not rocket science.

after kenya, zimbabwe …. bad precedences?

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So the big news coming out of the continent today is the big signing of a deal between Robert Mugabe and his long-time foe Morgan Tsvangirai. The deal guarantees Tsvangirai, the legitimate winner of the last presidential elections in Zimbabwe, powers for the day to day running of the country while Mugabe still leads the military and the cabinet.

This deal is kind of the same that Kenyans adopted after the disputed presidential elections last December. While in Kenya’s case it wasn’t as clear as to who won the election, in Zimbabwe it was as clear as the springs of Nyandarua that Morgan Tsvangirai beat the senile Mugabe in the polls. The sharing of power with a political thief in the mold of Mugabe is an affront against democracy. The nature of democratic elections is that winners take it all. Losers should accept the results and wait for the next election cycle. This applies equally to incumbents and the opposition. I was mightily pleased with the poise by which UNITA handled its loss in the just concluded elections in Angola – although if you ask me I think they should pull up their socks and grants Angolans true democracy by being more competitive.

Anyway, as happy as I am for Zimbabweans, I hope this phenomenon – of presidents stealing elections and then appointing the real winners prime ministers – does not catch on on the continent. I hope that Kenya and Zimbabwe are the last to go through this weird electoral circus.

angola – another chance for democracy in africa

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The sunny optimism that greeted the democratic awakening in Africa in the early nineties may be nearing twilight but there is still hope. Even as states like Kenya, Zimbabwe and even Senegal waver in their quest for liberal democracy, there is still a sliver of hope in the likes of Angola – a former war zone which holds elections tomorrow.

Angola has been for some time one of the fastest growing countries in the world. It is Africa’s soon to be largest oil producer (mainly because the Nigerian behemoth can’t get its act together) and with the help of the Chinese has recently embarked on a mission to build infrastructure throughout the country. The wealth may not be evenly shared out, but the country as a whole is better off than it was a decade or so ago.

So it is really hopeful that they will be having elections tomorrow. Yes there will be problems. Dos Santos has all the power in Angola and will definitely not hold completely free and fair elections. But this is a start. A few times over and the Angolans will internalize voting as a human right and realize their duty and moral call to chart the way forward for themselves through the ballot.

I am almost certain that Dos Santos’ MPLA will win the Friday election. But UNITA should not give up. Democracy is as cultural as it is political. Their time will come. Get to parliament, constructively oppose the government and be the watch-dog for the people. And help spread the idea that Africans are and ought to be in charge of their lives. Not governments. Certainly not NGOs. Not the church. Not the West. But Africans. Africans in Angola, Africans in Sudan, Africans in all war-ravaged regions of the continent.

really president biya, really?

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Paul Biya, a man who has been president of Cameroon since the 6th of November 1982, keeps giving hints that he plans to amend the constitution of Cameroon to remove a clause limiting the president’s term in office. Although the next elections are not due till 2011, Biya has been dropping hints that he wants the law changed in order to guarantee himself another SEVEN YEAR term in 2011.

Cameroon currently faces violent protests over a recent increase in fuel prices – forget that Cameroon is a petroleum producer, albeit a modest one. Although the prices were lowered after the first wave of protests, the protesters have now extended their demand to include a reduction in the price of not just fuel but food and other items as well. The opposition has promised to keep up with the mass protests if Biya goes ahead with the constitutional amendment.

The 75 year old has had over 25 years to make the lives of Cameroonians better but failed miserably. Over 40% of his country people still live below the poverty line. Official unemployment figures show that about 30% of the labor force is unemployed. Real figures are much higher than this (knowing how incompetent African statistics bureaus are). One wonders what more this old man has to offer to his country after he gives himself another seven years in office in 2011.

Whatever happened to basic decency? Why is it that our leaders feel that they can do whatever they want and get away with it? Do these people have any shame?

If anyone close to Biya reads this please tell him that third term amendments are kind of last-century. Obasanjo ought to have been the last shameful attempt at this. Africa will not claim the 21st century and indeed not even the fourth millennium if we keep up with this third term amendment nonsense. So get real President Biya. Competition breeds excellence, so let competition thrive.

African Institute of Science and Technology to open in Abuja

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Those of you that regularly read my blog know that I have this fixation with the idea of an African hegemon in the form of either Nigeria or South Africa that would provide visionary leadership for the rest of the continent. I was therefore delighted when I learned that the first African Institute of Science and Technology campus will open in Abuja, Nigeria, this coming July. The university will be part of a pan-African alliance of similar institutions that will be bastions of knowledge and research. The AIST will be modeled in a similar way to India’s legendary IIT and will consist of four campuses in the East, West, North and South of the African continent.

The initiative is the brain child of the Nelson Mandela Institution and will focus on the creation of scientific solutions to Africa-specific problems. The core courses offered by AIST will be in science and engineering although I see expansion into the social sciences once the demand builds up; after all, Africa needs all kinds of solutions, not just scientific ones. These are really exciting times……..

It is commendable that Nigeria provided the seed money for the project and that it will be the first host of such a high profile institution. Other potential candidates are South Africa or Botswana for the Southern campus, Kenya (once they get their house in order, if not Rwanda would be the next best thing) in the East and possibly Libya or Tunisia in the North. AIST, on top of being in itself a centre of excellence, will provide competition to other African universities that have been wallowing in mediocrity due to lack of competition and political meddling in the universities.

weekly news round up

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This week saw a lot take place on the continent.

In Kenya, negotiations to restore order and legitimacy in the government and possibly grant the opposition a power sharing arrangement are in an advanced stage. The former UN boss Kofi Annan, who is chairing the talks, is scheduled to announce to the Kenyan public agreements made thus far tomorrow (Friday).  Kenyans desperately need a political solution to the crisis that has hit the formerly peaceful nation since last year’s election.

Moving North West to Chad, the president Idriss Deby has declared a state of emergency after last week’s coup attempt. Deby’s government was almost toppled by a bunch of rag-tag rebels who are believed to be in cahoots with the government of Sudan. Lucky for Deby, the French sent in their airforce which enabled the government repel the rebels who were already in the capital and ready to take control of the presidential palace. The curfew restricts movement at night and especially the movement of vehicles. The defeat of the rebels last week was surely a mere postponement of their return since the government of Chad remains weak and only concentrated in Djamena.

Down South, former Zimbabwean finance minister, Simba Makoni, announced that he was going to challenge Robert Mugabe 82, in the March elections. Makoni’s announcement was swiftly followed by his expulsion from ZANU-PF and a rejection from the main opposition chief, Morgan Tsvangirae. Zimbabwe’s opposition remains sectarian and Mugabe loves this because it does guarantee him a win in March. Makes you wonder whether these people really want Rob’s government out.

In the Comoros islands, the government announced that it was planning to carry out an invasion of the renegade island of Anjouan in an attempt to reunite the Indian ocean archipelago. Comoros consists of three islands Anjouan, Grand Comore and Moheli each with its own autonomous government. Anjouan, however, led by one Mr. Mohammed Bacar, has broken from the fold since it held controversial elections in June of last year. Majority of the residents of Anjouan seem to be in favor of the invasion by the Union government based in Moroni, the capital. It’s now a wait ands see as the government continues to amass troops on the island of Moheli. Watch this space. 

Looking ahead, President George Bush of the US is due to visit Africa. The president’s itinerary will include stops in Tanzania, Rwanda, Ghana, Benin and Liberia. The president’s visit will mainly serve to highlight the successes of his efforts to stop the spread of aids on the continent and to distribute ARVs to those already infected. Accompanying him will be first lady Laura Bush and the “foreign affairs minister” Condi Rice.

Kenyan negotiations enter critical stage

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The Annan led team trying to reestablish sanity in Kenya will from tomorrow start looking at the most contentious issues thus far – the issues of the alleged election fraud, land, economic disparity and constitutional reform to limit the powers of the president. This is expected to be the most critical stage of the negotiations because most of the violence that has visited Kenya over the last month was caused either directly or indirectly by one or a combination of the above factors.

The government side has indicated that it will not compromise on the matter of Kibaki having been elected even as the ODM continues to insist that the election was stolen by the Kibaki camp. Today (Wednesday, 5th) both sets of negotiators held meetings with their respective principals to brief them on the goings on in Serena. Annan, who has been joined by former Tanzanian president Mkapa and Mandela’s wife Graca Machel, expressed optimism over the talks. His sentiments were echoed by both Ruto and Kilonzo of ODM and PNU-ODM-Kenya respectively.

Meanwhile the central bank governor issued a statement saying that the Kenyan economy is expected to fail to meet the projected annual growth of 5% for the year 2008. This he attributed to the adverse effect the recent violence has had on production, consumption and investor confidence. The private sector estimates that more than 400,000 Kenyans will lose their jobs if the situation does not improve soon. This would be bad for a country with unemployment rate that is approaching the high forties.

Kenyan leaders ought to know that the last thing they need is even more angry, hungry and jobless young people in the streets.

africa headed for mdg disappointment

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As African leaders continue to be preoccupied with civil strife and trying to hang on to power, figures indicate that the region will be the only place on the planet to have not met the millenium development goals by the deadline of 2015.

Child mortality, fertility, illiteracy, extreme poverty, among other indicators are still depressingly grim for this region of the world. The little or no growth experienced over the last two decades has all been swallowed up by a stratospheric fertility rate – all but one of the countries with fertility rates of more than 5 children per woman are in Africa. The number of Africans living in extreme poverty has increased by 90 million.

It is very depressing that the only people who seem to be disturbed by these aweful projections are non-Africans like Bono and Jeff Sachs and not the people who have contributed to the mess – the greedy, mostly illiterate kleptocrats who rule most of the continent.

If the trend is not reversed soon, the African future will be a re-run of post-79 Africa – a vast and dry continent that seems to have more than its fair share of famines, wars, disease and inexplicably high levels of poverty and suffering that belong in the premodern periods of human history. This is the reality that hundreds of millions of Africans are facing.

the africa cup of nations, something to celebrate

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The 2008 Africa Cup of Nations got off to a sizzling start with wins for all the tournament favorites that have played so far. Despite an embarrassing incident right before the Mali – Benin game, in which the floodlights went off, most of the organisation of the tournament has been done well.

Ghana deserves credit for having been able to provide stadia and other facilities necessary for the organisation of a tournament of this magnitude. The tournament also provides a brief period for the continent to forget about wars and droughts and famines and Aids and instead concentrate on the positive aspects of the continent that never make it to the front pages or headlines.

We thank the CAF and GFA for organising this wonderful tournament that gives Africans a chance to see their sons who play in Europe and elsewhere display their talents on African soil.

the african problem

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Sub-Saharan Africa is in dire straights. It is the most sick, hungry, poor and ignorant region of the world. It is a region infested with despots and illiberal democrats who for decades have led their nations to economy ruin and pre-modern tribal divisions and ways of living.

As the world watches one of this region’s promising nations descend into chaos, it is important for us to ask each other hard questions about the African Problem. I say the African Problem problem because it is not by chance that from Senegal to Somalia, Chad to South Africa, there is not much success to talk about. Poverty, disease and ignorance rule supreme.

We need to ask each other hard questions because racially sensitive Westerners (or Easterners for that matter) on whom we depend for most of “our” solutions will not ask us these questions; Is it our culture? Why haven’t we managed to shed the tribe in almost a decade into the 21st century? Why do we tolerate such appalling levels of mediocrity among us? Why don’t we demand more from our leaders? Why don’t we produce real leaders.

Our dictators compare woefully to those from other regions. Pinochet murdered Chileans, enriched himself, but also modernised the economy. Lenin had a weird ideology and some intellect behind his murderous leadership but he modernised Russia. Suharto did not run Indonesia into the ground. And now we turn to Africa: Samuel Doe, “Emperor” Bokasa, Iddi Amin, Obiang, Abacha and all the other Nigerian generals, Mobutu, Mugabe, Charles Taylor…. etc. This is a list of common criminals. Nearly all of them lack (ed) an iota of ideology behind their leadership, nearly all impoverished their people more than they were before, and all are a shame to all Africans. None of them knew what it means to be leader of a people or peoples.

These leaders got obscene amounts of wealth while their country men and women walked around naked, sick, hungry and ignorant.

How hard can it be? Why haven’t we succeeded in having successful socio-cultural and economic institutions that work for us? Does anyone care? Of what use is a million dollars to any African anywhere if Reuters is showing pictures of naked flood victims from Mozambique??? Why are we stuck in pre-modernity?

The many questions aside, the one thing that is clear is that Africa needs to change fast or it will never catch up with the rest of the world. We should not confuse pre-modern subsistence existence with culture. People live in mud houses and roam around with emaciated goats not because they love it but because they can’t afford or do not know any better.

kenya braces for more protests

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Kenya seems to be headed for more protests after the opposition refused to follow a government directive banning all political protests in the country following last month’s disputed elections.

Just yesterday the opposition in a show of strength forced through the election of Kenneth Marende over the government’s preferred candidate for the position of speaker of the national assembly, the third most powerful office in the land.

In anticipation of possible violence and looting, many shops are expected to remain closed on Wednesday and police have been deployed throughout the country to ensure that peace prevails and possibly to break-up any opposition marches.

Many analysts, activists and lawyers have asked the government to lift the ban it has imposed on the media and against political rallies as these bans are in clear violation of Kenyans’ freedom of speech and assembly.

Any reasonable person, from either side of the political divide, must find it very disturbing that the same people who less than a decade ago were fighting for free press and freedom of assembly are the ones who now issue statements banning rallies and live broadcasts with abandon. Things never really change. Just people.

kenneth Marende elected speaker

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The Kenyan opposition candidate Kenneth Marende has been elected speaker of the National Assembly. This is could be a glimpse of things to come in the country’s tenth parliament where the opposition has a majority over the government. By electing their own candidate for the speaker, the opposition has proven that it has full control of the house and will challenge the government through legal means over the disputed Dec 2007 elections.

The government candidate, long serving former speaker,  Francis Ole Kaparo, lost by four votes. The total tally of the votes was 105 against 101.