Category Archives: africa

al-shabaab may be linked to kampala blasts

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UPDATE: The daily nation reports that Somalia’s insurgent group al-Shabab has claimed the bombings that killed dozens in Kampala yesterday. The Atlantic’s Max Fisher offers an interesting analysis of the bombings.

Blasts in Uganda’s capital, Kampala, killed at least 64, the BBC reports. According to the report Ugandan security forces suspect that the bomb attacks may have been carried out by Somali insurgent groups. Ugandan troops are the backbone of the 5000 strong African Union contingent propping up the hapless transitional government of Somalia. The main rebel group in Somalia, the islamist al-Shabab, has previously threatened to attack Uganda in connection with its military presence in Somalia.

These attacks may be the beginning of a new security problem in the wider east African region. Since the fall of Siad Barre in 1991 the Somali’s have largely kept their violence within their borders, the only regional effect being the proliferation of light arms and the recent surge in piracy off the Somali coast. But that will change now that internationally-linked groups like al-Shabab are willing to export violence beyond the Somali borders. It might be time for unconventional approaches to the Somalia problem.

Uganda is scheduled to host a high profile African Union summit next week and security must be an even bigger concern for the Ugandan government in light of these attacks.

demographic transition in kenya, signs of hope

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Kenyan women, on average, still have a staggering 4.6 children in their lifetime, down from 4.9 in 2003. One Mr. Omwenga – a public health administrator – says that part of the problem is polygyny, which at 13% is still a too-common-for-comfort practice in most of rural, poorer and more Islamized parts of Kenya. Mr. Omwenga contends that “women in polygamous marriages had a tendency to compete with one another to have more children, thereby raising the total fertility rate for each woman” adding that “the situation in such marriages is made worse if women are competing with their co-wives to balance the sex of their children.”

The 2008/09 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS), the findings of which Mr. Omwenga was commenting on, projects that Kenya has a total population of 40 million. According to the survey the east African nation is on track to reduce the rather high fertility rates if the current economic trends hold. As it is, almost half of Kenyan girls have their first sexual encounter before they are 18. But wealthier and more educated women do so three years later, on average. Younger women are also less likely to be in polygamous relationships, a positive sign if Mr. Omwenga’s observation is factually sound.

Although at 40 million strong, Kenya is still far from a Malthusian disaster despite the endemic food shortages in the arid areas to the north and north east of the country (Ethiopia to the north has over 70 million). That said, the Kenyan government should do a better job of familiarizing Kenyan families with methods of family planning. If living standards are to go up, inflationary-adjusted economic growth must outstrip population growth by a big enough margin. Although in the long-term education (especially the education of girls), greater female labor force participation and the general secular decline of polygamy as more Kenyan men style up will do the trick in reducing fertility rates, the foundation for these has to be laid now. Fewer children NOW will translate into better education for them, including for the all important but oftentimes neglected Kenyan girl-child.

Urban Poverty

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This is the kind of story that makes you sick in the stomach. The story is about the plight of women in Nairobi’s slums and focuses on one Ms Kambura:

In 2006, she was gang-raped by four men who infected her with the Aids virus, hardy 100 metres from her one-room home. She had gone to the “toilet” in Athara, one of the open fields that residents of this informal settlement run to for lack of sanitary facilities. It was 8pm, but for residents here, that is late enough to be mugged, raped, even killed by gangs that roam the slums.

Kenyan urban poverty is a tinderbox waiting for a lighter, especially in light of the ever rising income disparities in major towns and cities.

In related news, the business pages of the Nation report that despite the downturn in the housing markets in the developed world home markets in places like Kenya, and Nairobi in particular, are still lucrative.

Currently, the rental market in Kenya is facing an upward pressure as a result of a rising middle class.The demand is believed to be higher than the supply of housing units. Statistics from the government and private sector players indicate that the annual demand for housing in Kenya stands at 150,000 units.This demand far outstrips the supply, which is estimated at about 35,000 units a year. The index shows that investing in Kenya’s housing industry has better returns than in the United States and the United Kingdom.

I wonder if the people at the city councils of Nairobi and other cities ever think of how they could exploit this huge gap between demand and supply to provide housing for their residents and make profits while at it – profits that they can then steal 20% of (if they REALLY have to) instead of resorting to rent-seeking practices like inflating the cost of cemeteries.

food for thought…

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The Economist reports a scientific finding that links nutrition and disease burden to human intelligence. The findings add to the development debate by suggesting that disease burden, through its effect on brain development, is a significant predictor of a country’s average intelligence level and that this in turn may explain endemic underdevelopment within the tropics. The questionable inferences from the research findings aside (see the comments section of the Economist article) my two cents on this is that it doesn’t matter. Firstly, a low average does not preclude outliers on the right hand side.  And secondly, a country only needs so many Einsteins (Read Debraj and others on the impact of tertiary education on development). Plus after reading Bernstein I can bet that the average Sri Lankan or Chadian is still smarter than the average Renaissance man, despite the latter’s spectacular achievements.

What really matters for economic development are Institutions and the rule of law. These can help countries survive even not so bright leaders – Bush’s America is a good example here. Of course the bigger problem is that it might be the case that you need a high national average intelligence to maintain self-reinforcing institutions that promote development. But even this would be a tough sell given the high variance in institutional capacity across different countries with different disease burdens (contrast Cuba with some of the poorer and sicker but higher ranked countries for instance).

The causal link between poor nutrition, a high disease burden and cognitive development probably exists. But I don’t think that the impact is large enough to explain underdevelopment in the global South. Just until 150 years ago there was not much variation in the average life expectancy across the different regions of the world despite the disparate development levels.

The complete list is here

More on this here

update: Here is a paper that documents the secular increase in IQ levels in Sudan. In light of the above article, poor countries need not worry. It appears that modernization will take care of their low average IQ worries.

Kenyan politicians’ pay

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The Economist has a graph comparing politicians’ pay across the globe. After the new emoluments that parliament unanimously adopted last week, Kenya’s crop of thieves poles, and on this list the Prime Minister, would rank at the very top. Shame shame shame. Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and the Prime Minister himself are on record as being opposed to the new salary hikes. It remains to be seen how the Kenyan legislature will react.

three cheers to gettleman and his ilk

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I am on record as being very critical of Jeffrey Gettleman, the New York Times bureau chief for eastern Africa. His sensational reporting from the region has oftentimes painted a one dimensional picture of events and portrayed east Africans as irrational and passive beings at the mercy of fate, and their sadistic rulers. That said, Mr. Gettleman and others who share in his bravery remain the only sources of somewhat credible news reports from  crazy places such as Somalia and eastern DR Congo. Listening to him on Fresh Air today reminded me that even though I may not agree with his presentation style, Mr. Gettleman is doing a brave job of reminding the world of the many evils that still define some people’s lived reality.

failed states panel

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FP has a live stream discussion on the issue of failed states. Catch it here

Update: Texas in Africa has a post on the conflict in eastern Congo.

The DRC is 50 today

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The Democratic Republic of Congo is 50 years old. The last 50 years (after they killed Lumumba) have been absolutely disastrous for this vast country in the middle of the Continent; Independence merely replaced the brutality, cruelty and pillage of King Leopold’s men (King Albert II attended the independence day “festivities”) with the brutality and kleptocracy of Mobutu. All I can say is that I hope the future holds a less punishing existence for the country’s 63 million plus.

Congratulations to Congolese people the world over for their enduring spirit. Kofi Olomide, the prolific Congolese soukous musician, sums it up in a quote from Samba: “This is hell’s system. The fire is raging but we don’t get burned.”

The other Continental disaster, Somalia, also turned 50 on Wednesday. No cause for celebration there either.

Kenyan MPs raise their salaries, again

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Being a member of parliament in Kenya is one of the most lucrative jobs on the Continent. The men and women of the August house unanimously voted to raise their salaries to US $174, 400 a year – which puts them at par with what US congressmen make. Most of this money will not be taxed. Understandably, lots of Kenyans have cried thieves! Although having the biggest economy in the wider region, per capita GDP in Kenya stands at a dismal US $ 1,600. 50% of Kenyans live below the poverty line. 78% of them live in rural areas; the vast majority of whom survive on rain-fed subsistence agriculture. On average, a child born in Kenya can hope to live to be 58.2.

The only good that can come out of this is that it will incentivize MPs to take their constituents more seriously – losing one’s seat has suddenly become more costly – thereby granting parliament better institutional standing by lowering the MP turnover rates (The idea here is that once they feel secure enough in their seats they may start to take their legislative duties more seriously — I know, wishful thinking). The pay hike may also empower parliamentarians and make them less dependent on party bosses and their patronage networks.

That said, it is still grotesquely obscene that Kenyan MPs make 109 times what their masters – the Kenyan electorate – make on average in any given year. And don’t even get me started on whether these clowns honorable members are worth the 1.1 million shillings they hope to make every month.

economic history… and some people’s lived experience

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I am currently doing some research on the economic history of medieval Europe and came across an interesting quote from one Francesco Guicciar commenting on 16th century Spain:

... poverty is great here, and I believe it is due not so much to the quality of the country as to the nature of the Spaniards, who do not exert themselves; they rather send to other nations the raw materials which grow in their Kingdom only to buy them back manufactured by others, as in the case of wool and silk which they sell to others in order to buy them back from them as cloths of silk and wool

The quote reminded me of the thoughts I have whenever I buy Nescafe in Kenyan supermarkets or read about Nigeria importing refined petroleum products.

Raila hospitalized

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Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga has been hospitalized, apparently due to fatigue. The 65 year-old Mr. Odinga has no publicly known health condition except for his eye problems that have seen him take several trips to Germany for treatment. His aides say that Mr. Odinga will be confined to bed rest for a few days.

Update: The Standard reports that Mr. Odinga has undergone minor surgery to ease pressure on his brain after a minor accident. The BBC says the same. The AP speculates that Mr. Odinga may be suffering from “hydrocephalus, a condition where excessive fluid builds up on the brain. If left untreated, symptoms of the condition include cognitive problems and difficulty walking.” It appears that Mr. Odinga hit his head recently and had to get a hole drilled into his skull to drain fluid that had built up too close to his brain as a result. His aides, doctor and sister in law (one Connie Sigei) insisted that the Prime Minister is in stable condition and will be back on his feet in a few days. Ms. Sigei added that she “brought him boiled maize and he ate it all, drank water and asked for more.”

Obiang is back in the news

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The diminutive dictator Brig. Gen. (ret.) Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, president of  Equatorial Guinea since 1979, is back in the news. After the UNESCO fiasco which nearly earned him the title of clown of the month of June Obiang is back again in the news, this time with an American PR agent. The Times reports that Mr. Obiang is attempting to “recast his reputation as a corrupt, repressive leader in a more progressive mold.” His agent, Mr. Davis even told journalists that “If there are political prisoners and no substantive charges against them, they will be freed.”Yeah right.

I suggest that Mr. Davis and his client start by reining in on the playboy son of the president, Little Teodoro. The younger Obiang’s lavish extravagance explains why Equatorial Guinea, a country with a per capita income of US $ 36,600 and a population of just over 0.5 million, has a life expectancy of 43 years, with 77% of its citizens living below the poverty line as of 2006.

The ONE question Obiang should be asked the next time he meets the press is: how hard can it be to run a country of 500,000 people with ALL that money?

Paul Kagame: clown of the month

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He is credited for ending the Rwandan genocide. For some time in his presidency he was the regional darling of donors and newsroom editors, being touted as one of the new class of pliable autocrats responsible leaders that were poised to drag the Continent out of abject mediocrity. But absolute power corrupts absolutely. Events like this, this and this are signs that Mr. Kagame is slowly but surely transmogrifying into a bangling and tactless dictator, just like the rest of them. Elections are due in Rwanda later this year which means that Mr. Kagame can only tighten his grip on power and ratchet up his campaign of intimidating the opposition.

For his lack of tact and shameless intolerance of those with different opinions I hereby pronounce Paul Kagame the clown of the month.

the political economy of food aid

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Aid Watch has a piece on this very important subject, check it out.

Other stories worth checking out this Friday include Jina Moore’s and the IRIN piece on the food situation in the Sahel.

populism gone mad

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The Kenyan parliament today passed a law that empowers the finance minister to fix prices of “essential goods” in an effort to tame unscrupulous traders who exploit wananchi with arbitrary price hikes. That is the story the sponsors of the bill want us to believe. Trade Minister Amos Kimunya has criticized the bill as a bad signal to investors. Kenya, he said, is still committed to the principles of economic liberalization. I concur with Mr. Kimunya’s criticism of the bill. Hayek’s old wisdom about the impossibility of controlling the economy still holds; You can’t fix retail prices without also having to fix the costs of production, transportation, advertising etc. And don’t even get me started on the demerits of allowing politicians – like Finance Ministers – to have this much power over the market.

The market definitely needs responsible regulation but in this instance the best way to protect wananchi, if this is the true aim of parliament, would have been to reduce the barriers of entry in the relevant industries and let competition and the invisible hand of the market drive the prices down. It is the best way to do it. President Kibaki should reject this bill.

UPDATE: For more read Jaindi Kisero of the Nation