Category Archives: africa

The messy story of drug trafficking in kenya (will Lucy spill the beans?)

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The story of powerful and connected drug lords running amok in Kenya is slowly trending into the realm of conspiracy theories. First it was a case of MPs – Kabogo, Mbuvi “Sonko”, Mwau and Joho – being the suspected culprits. But after a government report cleared the names of the MPs (on the grounds that no evidence was found against them) it emerged (according to Kabogo and Mbuvi) that President Mwai Kibaki’s infamous “mistress” Mary Wambui and her daughter Winnie Wangui Mwai were also connected to drug-trafficking.

Interestingly, in 2007 a parliamentary report linked Ms Wambui, her daughter and President Kibaki’s principal political adviser Stanley Murage to the thuggish Artur brothers. Quoting the parliamentary committee report:

Evidence adduced before the Committee established that the Artur brothers had direct connection at the highest levels of Government. Mary Wambui and her daughter Winnie Wangui Mwai, were close associates of the Artur brothers. Mr. Stanley Murage, Permanent Secretary and Special Adviser to the President on Strategy and based at State House was a key player in the saga, As will appear elsewhere in this report, the ultimate questions are: what did the Head of Government know about this matter? When did he get to know it and what did he do about it?

The report proceeds…

Artur brothers were enjoying state protection at the highest levels of Government. These involved the registration of their two companies, Kensingston Holdings Ltd and Brother Link International, importation of goods where tax was not paid as well as their strange appointment to the police force as Deputy Commissioners of Police, their use of government vehicles, amongst many others

The report concludes on page 39:

From the evidence adduced to date before the Committee, the gravity of this mater (sic) has emerged. It is for example abundantly clear that the two brothers were conmen and drug traffickers. That they enjoyed protection by the high and mighty in the Government is not in doubt.

The report does not say anything implicating President Kibaki in drug trafficking. But it certainly raises questions about how it is that the Kenyan security authorities have been able to unearth evidence about the involvement of all sorts of actors (from the military to police officers to government bureaucrats) linked to drug trafficking without finding a single individual guilty of an offense.

It might be time Kenyans consulted First Lady Lucy Kibaki about the activities and business relations of her much-hated “co-wife.”

is kenya at last getting limited government?

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On Thursday Speaker of the Kenyan Parliament Kenneth Marende ruled that President Kibaki’s appointments to constitutional offices were unconstitutional. The politics of the decision aside (it is a war between Premier Odinga and others intent on succeeding Mr. Kibaki in 2012) it is a good sign that finally Kenya may have gotten a system of political balance of powers. No single faction appears to be able to do whatever it wants, wapende wasipende.

Scholars like Nobel Laureate Douglas North, Barry Weingast (of my Department), among others, have argued that limited government (in which centres of power balance each other to prevent tyranny) is one of the key ingredients in the quest for long-run Economic growth and political stability.

Kenya appears to be on the threshold of obtaining limited government. It began with President Kibaki’s laid back approach to governing which empowered centres in the political structure outside of the presidency. Raila Odinga, William Ruto, Uhuru Kenyatta, Martha Karua etc are all politicians who have elevated themselves to an almost equal footing, politically speaking, with the president himself.

And the change has not just been about personalities, typical of politics in Africa. Institutions have had a hand in it, too. The Kenyan parliament – which Barkan thinks is the strongest in SSA – with its committee system and relative autonomy from the executive has been at the forefront of checking the powers of the executive in general and the presidency in particular. The new constitution reflects this new equilibrium condition.

The new constitution also empowers the judiciary, previously seen as a rubber stamp institution in the pocket of the president. Although nominations to the institution has gotten off on a rocky start, it appears that the law society of Kenya and the Judicial  Service Commission might be strong enough to (self)regulate judges on the bench, regardless of who appoints them.

I am cautiously optimistic.

Uhuru wins latest round in battle for central supremo

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The just concluded Kirinyaga Central by-election was not an ordinary one. The actual contest between Messrs Gitari and Karaba was secondary to the meta-contest between Gichugu MP Martha Karua and Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta. Karua backed Karaba while Uhuru campaigned for Gitari.

Given the high salience of ethnicity in Kenyan politics, the latter contest will determine who emerges as the chief voice of the Central Kenya voting block ahead of the 2012 general elections. Mr. Kenyatta must be happy with the latest score in Ms. Karua’s backyward given his own drubbing a few months ago in his own backyard in the Juja by-election.

Reacting to the loss Ms Karua twitted: “We have lost the battle not the war. Congrats to our team no retreat no surrender. Narc kenya marches on!”

Mr. Kenyatta, son of Kenya’s first president and very much an establishment candidate, is hoping to succeed President Kibaki as the ethnic chief of Central Kenya when the latter retires in 2012. The ultimate insurgency candidate, Ms Karua is an outsider and relatively new money who is increasingly championing the cause of the central Kenya underclass who have been marginalized by the region’s old guard elite since independence.

This blog has previously confessed a soft spot for Ms Karua, a rare breed of a principled fighter among Kenyan politicians. Mr. Kenyatta has been accused by the ICC to be among the masterminds of the 2007-08 post-elections violence that killed 1300 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. He also has tons of money.

second hand clothes

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Thanks to a view from the cave I just found out that there is an Oxfam study out there on the effects of second hand clothes (SHC) in the African markets. The findings are largely predictable: the poor benefit from the trade, the trade has created opportunity for fraud and most importantly, it has contributed to the death of local textile industries. The big question then is how to transition from the over-reliance on SHC.

In my view textiles is a sector in which countries would be justified in going nationalist and financing or facilitating the financing of local firms and industries. It is unacceptable that up to 90% of Ghanaians buy second hand clothing despite high unemployment and abundant cotton in the West African region.

Here are some snippets from the Oxfam paper:

The trade has clear consumer benefits. This is especially in countries with low purchasing power, and for poorer consumers, though in many sub-Saharan African countries it seems that almost ALL socio-economic groups are choosing to buy SHC. …. over 90% of Ghanaians purchase SHC.

The trade supports thousands of livelihoods…. These include jobs in trading, distributing, repairing, restyling and washing clothes. Oxfam’s research in Senegal estimates that 24,000 people are active in the sector in that country…. 1,355 people work in formal sector textile/clothing in Senegal.

SHC trade in recipient countries is mainly informal and is poorly regulated. In some instances it has facilitated considerable customs fraud, as new clothing imports have been passed off as used clothing.

Some quick thoughts

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Grinding poverty and the lack of innovative thinking among their home governments continue to force most Africans to buy second hand-clothing. The few textile industries on the Continent (with a few exceptions in West Africa) are small operations geared mainly for exports – mostly under AGOA to the US. Special interests (second-hand clothes importers), poor economic policies (many countries killed their own nascent textile sectors) and dumping of textiles from the east are to blame.

The result is the indignity of having to buy used underwear or live in a parallel universe in which the Steelers won Super Bowl XLV.

A post on the related topic of the politics of appropriate aid-giving  is here.

In other news, Blattman makes the observation that younger leaders in Africa, because of their different upbringing, will be different from the independence leaders. I beg to differ. Spatial distribution based on ethnicity and malapportionment against urban centres, mixed with the toxicity of ethnic politics will continue to perpetuate rural, ethnic-based tyranny in most of Africa. The fact that University of Nairobi student council elections invariably go tribal says it all.

The current changes in the Arab world should be a wake-up call for most of Africa. Soon enough the set of examples of poor governance and general mediocrity will shrink from Africa, the Middle East and South Asia to just Africa.

property rights and economic development in africa

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Forget (almost) everything else. The trouble with African economies is simply and squarely the lack of property rights protection. It still beats me why the African political elite have failed at instituting even intra-elite property rights protection. The fact that the African political elite – who also happen to be the wealthiest people on the Continent – cannot invest in their own countries has resulted in massive capital flight. The quote below says it all.

Speaking at the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD) meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, in December 2003, the former British secretary of state for international development, Lynda Chalker, noted that 40 percent of the wealth created in Africa is invested outside the continent.

And this is only what gets counted. Although obviously the upper bound, recent revelations of Mubarak’s wealth (between 20 -70 billion) may be an indication of the amount of personal wealth stashed overseas by long time autocrats like oil-rich Angola’s Edwardo do Santos, Equatorial Guinea’s Obiang’ and Sudan’s Bashir, among others.

The contrast is that:

In corrupt societies in Asia, such as Indonesia, Bangladesh and Pakistan the citizens still prosper because the corrupt elite keep their money at home. They invest in new mobile phone network, build private hospitals and tourist hotels (here).

In short, elite political instability and distrust in Africa is one of the key reasons why the region remains poorer than any other in the world.

south sudan and the challenges of self-rule

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The BBC reports that at least 100 people have been killed in clashes between the South Sudan government and soldiers loyal to a renegade rebel, George Athor, in Jonglei State.

This latest clash does not come as a surprise. Most analysts predict a high likelihood of civil war in post-independence South Sudan. Conflict will most likely come from two sources: Khartoum funding local dissident groups in order to check Juba and internal ethnic rivalry over government positions and the sharing of oil wealth.

Civil war in South Sudan may prove to be deadlier than the 2 decade war against Khartoum. Civilianization of the two decade war placed guns in the hands of most able bodied young men (In the South cattle herders tend to their animals with AK’s in hand). The prospect of Khartoum supporting secessionist movements along its border with the South is not pure fantasy.

The spotlight is on the political elite in the South. Will they hammer out a power and resource sharing deal or will despotism yet again kill the independence dreams of an African nation? I can’t stop thinking that John Garang’ de Mabior died too soon.

Afro-American relations and Justice

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FP Magazine reports:

In short, all the carrots that U.S. diplomats are offering the Sudanese president seem to be working. Among the prizes for Khartoum are a U.S. promise to remove Sudan from its list of terrorism-supporting states and a possible visit by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, according to the Sudan Tribune. Earlier this month, U.S. State Department officials also signaled that they would be ready to begin normalization following Sudan’s acceptance of the vote.

While the US approach has yielded good results in securing the secession referendum in the South, American policy in the wider region leaves a lot to be desired. Washington appears to be ready to cut a deal with any dictator, as long as they serve a short-term US need.

America needs to do more on Darfur. America needs to do more in Ethiopia, where Meles Zenawi continues to reign with an iron fist without any pretense of respecting human rights. America needs to do more in Uganda, where Museveni has emerged as an anti-terror crusader who does not care for any liberal (in the classical sense) ideals.

The choice between protecting American interests abroad and respecting the rights of other peoples of the world is a false choice. Liberty (the world over) is not incompatible with American security. The ideals embodied in the federalist papers, the American declaration of independence, and the first amendment of the US constitution should not be confined within the US borders as far as American policy goes.

discussing egypt

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I just attended a discussion session with Stanford scholars Lisa Blaydes (Political Scientist) and Joel Beinin (Historian) on the recent uprising in Egypt.

The structural factors leading to the revolt (According to Prof. Beinin) include: High unemployment among the youth, who constitute a big percentage of the working population and neo-liberal economics, embodied in the “government of businessmen” with friends and cronies of Gamal Mubarak at the helm.

The other point highlighted by Prof. Beinin is that the revolt has its roots in the liberal autocratic equilibrium that had emerged in Egypt over the last decade or so. Groups were allowed to protest, strike or engage in other collective action activities.

Prof. Bienin also took issue with American portrayal of Mubarak as a “moderate authoritarian,” the idea that Suleiman (Vice President of Egypt) should lead the transition and the perception of the Muslim Brotherhood as radical Islamist movement with a stranglehold on Egyptian politics – there are other opposition movements that would force the group to moderate its politics.

Prof. Blaydes’ talk aimed at answering three questions: who is protesting and why, what should we expect from free elections in Egypt and what does this all mean for Egyptian-American relations?

The protesters are likely to be mostly upper middle class men. A survey (rep. sample of 3000) before the protest indicated that only 8% of the total; 12% of men; 50% of the engaged upper middle class would go out and protest. The revolt is not a movement of the poor wanting redistribution. It is a middle class affair.

Egyptian politics is not a programmatic issue-based enterprise. Patronage politics predominate. Prof. Blaydes presented findings form survey data to estimate the strength of political Islamist movements in Egypt. The possible upper-bound of these movements was estimated to be 60%. Egypt has one of the largest concentrations of right-wing Islamists in the Arab world. The key point here is that there are a lot of unknowns. Since patronage politics predominates it is unclear if the high religiosity of Egyptians will necessarily translate into political gains for the Muslim brotherhood.

Public opinion in Egypt is already highly anti-American. US actions are unlikely to change that in the short-run, especially given the apparent American support for the Mubarak regime in the last few days.

Overall it appears that the uprising will not meet the needs of most pro-democracy groups. The ancien regime has dug in and appears to be regrouping.

 

A note on economic development

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“I think we have gone too far in the pro-poor direction…… we don’t necessarily have trade-offs. Factories are pro-poor.” Chris Blattman, Yale University

I am on record as not being too enthusiastic about “pro-poor growth” as it is currently practiced. Loans to the poor and other approaches that completely bypass those with a higher probability of succeeding at creating big business – the educated and middle class – will at best only keep the poor afloat and at worst divert resources from much needed long-term investment. I am not saying that the educated have a monopoly on entrepreneurship. All I am saying is that what we want is to create sustainable jobs. This requires scale. And scale comes with big business and industry.

Blattman neatly summarizes this point:

The difference between a country with $1,500 and $15,000 of income a head a head is simple: industry. All the microfinance and microenterprise programs in the world are not going to build large firms and import technology and provide most people with what they really want: a stable job, regular wages, and a decent work environment.

More on this here.

Liberian politics gone awry

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Scholars of historical institutional economics place a lot of emphasis on cognitive states and beliefs about how the world works as central to understanding the evolution and persistence of good institutions. Countries that have emerged out of abject poverty also happen to be those that managed to harness technology and rational-scientific knowledge for the public good.

It is therefore disheartening to read that in Liberia politicians engage in acts that belong in the pre-modern era. Whether they do it merely to instill fear in their opponents or actually believe in what they do is secondary. These acts are simply intolerable.

The Economist reports:

In a case dating from March last year, due to come to court soon, a pregnant woman and her unborn baby were killed and body parts taken. Vials of blood were reportedly found in the house of a senior official in Maryland, a south-eastern county where superstitious beliefs are strong. But reports of such killings come from all over. And traditional “heart men” now include criminals who trade body parts for cash.

Liberia’s long civil war made such things seem less gruesome. In 2008 Milton Blahyi, a former warlord, admitted to eating children’s hearts before going into battle. Along with wearing female wigs and going naked, the practice was believed to bring victory.

More on this here.

A related story from last year can be found here.

central african republic president re-elected

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Francois Bozize, dictator of the Central African Republic, has been re-elected with 66% of the vote. Capital FM reports that:

Government spokesman Fidele Ngouandjika declared: “It is a victory of democracy for someone who took power in a (2003) coup d’etat and who was legitimised by the ballot in 2005.”

More like Democracy 0 Bozize 10

More on this here.

Turskish premier erdogan to all the dictators out there…

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From here, I would like to make a very sincere suggestion to Egyptian President Mr. Husni Mubarak and caution him: We are human beings. We are mortal. We are not immortal. We will all die and be questioned for what we have done in our lives. As Muslims, we will all end up in two-cubic meter holes. We are all mortals. What is immortal is the legacy we leave behind; what is important is to be remembered with respect; it is to be remembered with benediction. We exist for the people. We fulfil our duties for our people. When the imam comes to us as we die, he will not address us as the president, as the head of state, as the prime minister, or as the minister. I am now talking to the trillionaires: the imam will not address you as trillionaires. He will address us all as simple men or women. What will come with you will only be the shroud. Nothing else. Therefore we must know the value of that shroud; we must listen to the voice of our conscience and to! the voice of our people; we must be ready either for our people’s prayers or for their malediction. Therefore, I say that you must listen, and we must listen, to the people’s outcry, to their extremely humanitarian demands. Meet the people’s desire for change with no hesitation.

More on this here.

the African Union and its problems

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The just concluded AU summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia had two key problems to address: the political crisis in Ivory Coast and the legal battles involving six Kenyans who face charges at the ICC. So far the continental body appears to have failed on its attempts to address both problems.

In the Ivory Coast, Mr. Gbagbo’s camp has already declared that the five person panel formed by the AU is dead on arrival unless Burkinabe president, Compraore is dropped. The Daily Nation reports:

The president of Burkina Faso, named on a high-level African Union panel tasked with settling Cote d’Ivoire’s leadership crisis, is “not welcome” in this country, a top ally of strongman Laurent Gbagbo said here yesterday.

And in Kenya, the political football involving the setting up of a credibly clean local judicial system to try perpetrators of the 2007-8 post election violence diminished the prospects of a deferral from the UN Security Council. Kenya must guarantee that it will try the suspects for the ICC to consider a deferral. It does not help that the appointment of high members of its judiciary, including the chief justice, the attorney general and the director of public prosecutions has already been soiled by political grandstanding.

power-play in public appointments in kenya

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It emerges that Kenya’s Prime Minister Raila Odinga wanted President Kibaki to appoint a foreigner to head the judiciary. This can only mean one of two things: either (i) Mr. Odinga wants a super clean judiciary that will interpret the law in a disinterested manner or (ii) he thinks that the Kibaki-PNU faction is so strong that they will be able to buy off any local judge appointed to head the judiciary.

Because Mr. Odinga or his allies could potentially find themselves facing the judiciary in the future, I don’t think it is the former concern that is motivating the Premier. It must be the case that he realizes he has no way of locally dealing with the Kibaki-PNU faction, except through name-and-shame games and other sanctions involving foreigners. To compensate for the fact that he cannot contain the Kibaki-PNU coalition politically, Mr. Odinga is hoping he can do so via independent institutions.

What does this mean for Kenyan democracy? It means that it is not yet Uhuru. As long as there is a faction in the country that can do whatever it wants under a “wapende wasipende” mentality Kenya will remain a democracy in name only. True democracy will only come once all factions involved realize that the country belongs to all Kenyans and that they cannot get away with subordinating the interests of regular Kenyans to those of a few ethnic chiefs.

The man to blame for all of this is Kalonzo Musyoka. Mr. Musyoka is bad for Kenyan democracy because he is the all important median veto player, but lacks principles. Because his support gives either side the needed majority he remains the biggest stumbling block to any compromise arrangements that might ensure that regular Kenyans truly benefit from the new constitutional dispensation. Kibaki does not need to negotiate with Odinga as long as he has Kalonzo on his side. But given Mr. Odinga’s political clout, good and lasting institutions will only emerge if Kibaki and Odinga arrive at a self-enforcing arrangement.

Mr. Musyoka initially campaigned against the new constitution. Mr. Musyoka has been at the forefront of efforts to protect perpetrators of the 2007-8 post-elections violence that killed over 1300 Kenyans. Mr. Musyoka continues to stand on the wrong side of Kenya’s reform agenda. Given the recent comments from Francis Atwoli, the trade union leader, it is encouraging that Kenyans are cognizant of these facts.