Philip Tetlock lunches with the FT

As Tyler Cowen would say, the entire piece is self-recommending. Here are a couple of quotes from the exchange. Philip Tetlock is the author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

Tetlock’s demonstration that strong commitment to theory or ideology makes poor forecasters — and that even best forecasts come to resemble guesswork when they reach more than a few years into the future — raises an unsettling possibility. It suggests that human affairs are mostly random and intractable. Incremental gains in foresight are possible, but there is no deep order to life…..

His work has taught him that everyone takes a heavy ideological endowment from their environment. “Any good political psychologist should have the moral and historical imagination to see how he or she could become almost any ideological creature that has existed, or does exist on the planet. That includes Nazis, Stalinists, Maoists, Isil . . . There but for the grace of God.”

More on Tetlock here.

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