climate change madness, and bad research

Climate change is real, no doubt about that. But making inferences like this one from observed climatic patterns does not make any sense. It is almost offensive.

quoting the piece….

“Climate change is likely to increase the number of civil wars raging in Africa, according to Stanford researchers. Historical records show that in warmer-than-average years, the number of conflicts rises. The researchers predict that by 2030, Africa could see a greater than 50 percent increase in civil wars, which could mean an additional 390,000 deaths just from fighting alone.”

There are several things that are wrong with this inference. From the start, attempting to predict future patterns of conflict based on past experiences is highly problematic. Unless we presume that Africans are irrational in their violence, there is no reason to infer that they will naturally fight because of the predicted adverse effects of climate change. Past wars had a myriad causes – chief among them state failure. Most of these causes no longer obtain and may not obtain in 2030.

I have not read the actual paper but will sure do so as soon as I can get it and then comment some more about it. For now all I can make of it is: we should save the environment or else the Africans will kill themselves. This is what I call a heap of horse manure.

3 thoughts on “climate change madness, and bad research

  1. Pingback: people don’t go to war because they are poor « Opalo’s weblog

  2. If you compare the “western” world’s history, in this case mainly Europe, the number of violent conflicts is far greater than the number of wars and violent conflict in Africa. We just need to look at history. It had nothing to do with the climate. I am also yet to read the entire article, but get serious!! Yet another “sexy” development initiative.

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  3. Though i find the thinking line a little bordering towards racism, i’m informed that in kenya the maasai living downstream are at loggerheads with the kalenjins who grabbed water catchment areas and an imminent drought is likely, from history, agai such conflicts end up in ravages you will agree, being privy to the statement”those people should lay low like envelopes”

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